ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT 1: ALL QUIET ON THE EASTERN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 002707

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR GT
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT 1: ALL QUIET ON THE EASTERN
FRONT


1. (SBU) Summary: EmbOffs visited the eastern provinces of
Zacapa and Chiquimula to conduct man-on-the-street interviews
and to discuss the ongoing election campaign with resident
international election observers. Widespread disillusionment
with the Portillo Administration was reflected in our
unscientific polls and confirmed by the MINUGUA and OAS reps.
Colom and Berger tied in the voter-preference poll, with
Rios Montt a distant third. Concerns about fraud and
violence on election day were widespread but ill-defined, and
centered on mayoral-level races. International observers are
well-coordinated and have targeted their resources at areas
where tensions are highest. End Summary.


2. (U) Zacapa and Chiquimula are typical of Guatemala's
rural, largely ladino eastern provinces. Together the two
provinces constitute just under 5 percent of Guatemala's
population, and both departments voted overwhelmingly for the
FRG in the 1995 and 1999 elections. During our visit,
EmbOffs conducted random interviews with a broad range of
voters. About one third of the interviews were conducted
outside Zacapa's hospital and included voters from several
outlying communities. The rest were conducted in
Chiquimula's central plaza.


3. (SBU) Zacapa is President Portillo's hometown and has been
the beneficiary of several large-scale public works projects,
such as the renovation of the central square and the sports
stadium. Residents were not impressed, however, and most
expressed bitter disappointment with the Portillo
Administration. Alberto Brunori, MINUGUA representative, who
has resided in Zacapa since 2000, believes this
disillusionment will translate into low voter turnout on
election day. Rosario Ramos of the OAS observation mission
reported long lines all over the region as people updated
their voter registration. Our interviews reconciled this
apparent contradiction by reflecting widespread apathy and
cynicism toward politics and politicians at the national
level, but residents became animated and opinionated when our
questions touched on local-level politics.


4. (U) Chiquimula is widely referred to as the personal
fiefdom of four-time FRG congressman Baudillo Hichos, whose
repeat victory in the upcoming elections appears guaranteed.
Both Brunori of MINUGUA and Gerber Mendez, resident
representative for the Human Rights Ombudsman's office (PDH)
in Chiquimula, point to an atmosphere of tension in
Chiquimula, but neither expects acts of violence or fraud on
election day if only because Hichos and his people seem to
have the situation completely under control. All bets are
off, however, if early results indicate that the Mayor's
office or the new Congressional seat is not going to the FRG.
Gerber said that the number and types of formal complaints
his office receives have not been affected by the run-up to
the election. Our interviews in Chiquimula did not pick up
an atmosphere of intimidation, although we got more responses
in favor of Rios Montt than in Zacapa.


5. (SBU) Rios Montt performed poorly in our unofficial poll,
placing a distant third with less than 8 percent. We suspect
some of our subjects who claimed to be undecided or insisted
that their vote was secret are in reality going to vote for
Rios Montt. These cases still amounted to less than 20
percent of responses. Surprisingly, Alvarado Colom scored as
high as Oscar Berger in our poll, each with 40 percent
support. Colom was considered by respondents to be the least
corrupt and most likely to help the poor, whereas Berger was
considered more likely to improve the economy and impose
security. Respondents were evenly split on whether economic
or security issues should be the priority of the next
government, with most people seeing these issues as
inextricably linked at the local level. Respondents focused
almost entirely on local issues, and did not seem concerned
about national political issues. Nearly all respondents
(except for those voting for Rios Montt) believed there would
be fraud at the polls. Several respondents said that a Rios
Montt victory would constitute proof of fraud, but no one
explained how electoral safeguards could be defeated and no
one thought the results of the elections would ultimately be
discredited by fraud.


6. (SBU) The OAS and EU observation missions said they have
closely coordinated their election day observation plans, and
the EU observers told us they have received excellent
cooperation from the local political parties to date. We
also noted a high degree of communication and coordination
among MINUGUA, Mirador Electoral, and the PDH. Seventy-four
of the 261 voting precincts in Chiquimula province will be in
the city of Chiquimula itself. Given the FRG's strength and
stakes in the city, the Mirador will concentrate 17 of it 58
observers there, backed up by 31 from the PDH. In
Esquipulas, where violence has historically been more of a
problem than fraud, the Mirador will send 6 observers, and
the PDH is committing 25 so that there will be complete
coverage of the 30 voting tables in Esquipulas. A similar
pattern applies to Zacapa where 47 domestic observers (12
from the Mirador and 35 from PDH) will provide nearly
complete coverage to the 51 voting tables in the city. The
rest of the precincts in these two provinces (261 total for
Chiquimula, and 183 total for Zacapa) will have approximately
50 percent coverage.


7. (SBU) Comment: Man-on-the-street interviews and reports
from international observers suggest that the FRG is
significantly behind in its own stronghold, in large part
because of disillusionment with the current government.
Localized disturbances are expected in the eastern provinces
on election night, where historically the supporters of
losing mayoral candidates often seek redress with bravado,
sometimes leading to violence. In fact, when MINUGUA
recently suggested that the GANA candidate for Mayor in the
town of Gualan file a legal complaint in the wake of an
attempt on his life, he retorted "that's not the way we do
things here." International observers have established a
high profile and are working well together. Potential
flashpoints appear to have been identified and are few enough
in number to be well monitored.
HAMILTON