ELECTION ROUND UP WITH THREE WEEKS TO GO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 002664

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR PINS GT
SUBJECT: ELECTION ROUND UP WITH THREE WEEKS TO GO



1. (SBU) Summary: Polls continue to show GANA candidate
Berger significantly ahead in voter preferences, followed by
UNE's Colom and the FRG's Rios Montt in a dead heat for
second place. Some electoral experts believe the FRG will
not make it into the second round, though poll results
suggest that the FRG's core support base may be stronger than
most give them credit for at around 20%. Reports of Supreme
Electoral Tribunal concerns over the potential for election
day disturbances were exaggerated by the press. Nonetheless,
the TSE has asked for additional police protection for
polling places that are historically hot spots. Of 22
alleged electoral related murders, only two are believed by
international observers to be politically motivated. OAS and
EU election observers are blanketing the country, and expect
to be up to 300 observers by election day. In a meeting with
the Ambassador, OAS EOM Chief Paniagua said he is meeting
with the MOD to seek access to military bases to verify if
payments to ex-PAC's are being made by FRG candidates. End
summary.


WHO'S AHEAD
--------------

2. (U) An October CID-Gallup poll gives GANA candidate Oscar
Berger a commanding lead in the first round election with 34%
of the vote, compared to 18% for UNE's Alvaro Colom, 10% for
FRG leader Efrain Rios Montt and 7% for PAN candidate Leonel
Lopez Rodas. The CID-Gallup poll does not list other months
for comparison purposes, but is consistent with polls taken
by other firms for the same period. The October poll shows
that in a second round between Berger and Colom, 47% of
respondents would vote for Berger, and 30% for Colom. In a
second round between Berger and Rios Montt, 65% of
respondents said they would vote for Berger, followed by 13%
for Rios Montt.


3. (SBU) At a recent meeting with the Ambassador, three
electoral experts (not affiliated with any political party)
concluded that the unbroken tendency of Guatemalan voters to
throw out the party in power would be difficult for the
ruling FRG to overcome in this election. A sagging economy,
serious corruption allegations, a deteriorating security
situation and the continued absence of the state from many
rural areas would all work against Rios Montt's candidacy.
Two of them opined that the final round of the election would
pit Berger against PAN's Leonal Lopez Rodas, and one that
Berger would face off with UNE's Alvaro Colom (Embassy
comment: While Lopez Rodas has risen in the polls in recent
months, he still remains far behind Colom and Rios Montt in
all the polls. End comment). Other observers have noted that
Berger's health problems (he was operated on recently for
prostate cancer) have had a negative impact on his candidacy.


4. (SBU) Conventional wisdom in Guatemala is that the FRG and
UNE are competing virtually equally for second place. Most
polls show the FRG gaining ground, though still in third
place. A recent VoxLatina poll of Guatemala City voters
showed that 15.5% would vote for FRG candidate for Mayor of
Guatemala City Luis Rabbe. While that still puts him in a
distant third place for mayor, it shows that support for the
FRG in Guatemala City, widely viewed as hostile to the FRG,
could exceed 15%. If the FRG has 15% in Guatemala City, it
is not inconceivable that its core support nationwide is
closer to 20%.

CONCERNS ABOUT ELECTION DAY DISTURBANCES
--------------

5. (U) Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) President Oscar
Bolanos told reporters on October 15 that the TSE fears
confrontations in 205 municipalities where current mayors are
running for re-election. In an October 16 round-table
discussion with the private sector, Bolanos clarified that
the TSE does not have any reason to believe that the current
election will be more violent than previous ones, and said
that they expect public disturbances will occur in very few
municipalities. He noted that two of the blue-collar suburbs
of Guatemala City (Chinautla and Palencia) historically had
election day violence (after the poll results were known),
and that in the 1999 the election had to be repeated in
Chinautla because angry mobs burned the ballot boxes after
their candidate for mayor lost. He said that he had already
spoken with the Minister of Government to request additional
security on election day for the areas where violence is
traditional, and OAS Election Observation Mission head
Valentin Paniagua noted that the OAS will dedicate more
observers to the municipalities where violence is
traditionally common.


6. (SBU) The murder on October 8 of two GANA members (a
husband and wife) in Puerto San Jose again raised the specter
of pre-election violence, but MINUGUA and the OAS have not
determined that the murders were politically motivated. Of
the 22 allegations of election-related murders since the
convocation of elections in May, MINUGUA and the OAS believe
two were clearly politically motivated (though in both cases
they were the acts of impassioned local party members, not
part of a national strategy by the parties involved). Most
of the cases were clearly not politically motivated. The OAS
and MINUGUA continue to investigate the remaining cases.

MOST OBSERVED ELECTION EVER
--------------

7. (U) The OAS and EU election monitoring missions have
opened their regional offices and are making their presence
felt throughout the country. Both missions expect to field
150 international observers each on election day, in what
will be Guatemala's most observed election since the
restoration of democracy.

OAS TO VERIFY PAYMENTS TO EX-CIVIL PATROL MEMBERS
-------------- --------------

8. (SBU) The GOG's recent decision to expand the number of
former PAC's that would receive compensation for their
war-time service was widely viewed as a ploy to seek their
support for the FRG in the elections. Large numbers of
ex-PAC's that failed to receive compensation in the first
tranche have been blocking FRG campaign rallies in different
parts of the country and protesting against FRG candidate
Rios Montt. The controversial GOG decision to pay the former
civil patrol members on military bases, where the public is
not allowed, created fears that the FRG would use this to
hide their political proselytism with the ex-PAC.
Accusations have surfaced that FRG candidates are handing out
the compensation payments. In an October 17 meeting with the
Ambassador, OAS Election Observation Chief Valentin Paniagua
said that he would be meeting later that day with MOD General
Robin Moran to request access to military bases on the days
the payments are made to the PAC to observe if partisan
political activities are taking place in violation of the
electoral law.

Comment:
--------------

9. (SBU) Last week's fear "du jour," that the FRG had rented
all the buses in the country on election day, has subsided.
Several individuals associated with the opposition have
assured voters that public transportation will be available
on election day. This week's fear is that the FRG will put
mobs on the streets on election day to discourage voters.
The OAS and TSE have engaged with the Minister of Government
on this issue and received assurances that the police will
maintain order on election day. The OAS believes that the
large number of international observers will also discourage
violence. With 23 days left before the election, voter
preferences have not changed, and tensions have diminished
significantly from their high in late July. Current
expectations are for a normal electoral process.
HAMILTON