Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03GUATEMALA264
2003-01-31 16:41:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Guatemala
Cable title:  

PRESIDENTIAL PRE-CANDIDATE WHITBECK DISCUSSES

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR ETRD PHUM GT 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 000264 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/31/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ETRD PHUM GT
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL PRE-CANDIDATE WHITBECK DISCUSSES
UPCOMING ELECTION


Classified By: PolCouns David Lindwall for reason 1.5 (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 000264

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/31/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ETRD PHUM GT
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL PRE-CANDIDATE WHITBECK DISCUSSES
UPCOMING ELECTION


Classified By: PolCouns David Lindwall for reason 1.5 (d).


1. (C) Summary: Former senior FRG member Harris Whitbeck
told the Ambassador that it is almost certain he will run for
President as the candidate of the Partido Patriota, and said
the FRG has lost much of its popular support. He believes
Rios Montt would be defeated at the polls if he runs. The
Ambassador told Whitbeck that the USG will be strictly
neutral in the election, and said that we hope this
government and its successor will improve counter-drug
cooperation. The Ambassador said CAFTA represents an
historic opportunity to reduce poverty in Guatemala, and said
it is urgent that Guatemalans effectively address our
non-trade concerns that could endanger approval of CAFTA by
Congress. It is too early in the electoral season to
speculate on Whitbeck's chances of winning the Presidency,
but the polls would suggest at this point that he is a long
shot. End summary.


2. (C) In a January 30 breakfast with the Ambassador, former
senior FRG official Harris Whitbeck said that the Partido
Patriota had offered to make him its presidential candidate
in the 2003 elections, and he will make a decision in coming
days. He told us it is almost certain he will accept.
Whitbeck, who was a founding member of the FRG, left the
ruling party in 2002 and accused it publicly of abandoning
its principles. He said that he told Partido Patriota
founder Otto Perez Molina that his one condition for becoming
the party's presidential standard bearer was that he would
pick his own cabinet, and Perez Molina could head the party's
congressional team (note: retired General Perez Molina has a
constitutional impediment that keeps him from being the
presidential candidate until he has been out of the military
for five years -- in 2004. That impediment does not apply to
congressional candidacies. end note). Whitbeck believes he
could secure the support of much of the FRG's rural base,
where he is well known because of his government jobs in
rural development, and believes voters are looking for an

alternative to the "corruption-ridden FRG and PAN." He does
not believe his "American" image would cost him votes (Note:
Whitbeck was a dual national, but renounced his U.S.
citizenship in 1993).


3. (C) Whitbeck said the FRG is in a tight spot -- Rios Montt
wants to run, but doesn't know if the system will let him;
the party has no one else it can credibly run, and if it
stretches outside the party for the candidate, it will
relinquish control. Whitbeck opined that the growing public
momentum for Rios Montt's candidacy is designed at least in
part to keep FRG congressmen from jumping ship and joining
the opposition, which many are expected to do if Rios Montt
does not run. Whitbeck believes that Zury Rios's political
ambitions (which he described as "uncontainable to the point
of being almost pathological") are also keeping the aging
General in the political fray. Whitbeck said that if Rios
Montt runs, he will lose.


4. (C) The Ambassador told Whitbeck that the USG would be
scrupulously neutral in the upcoming election. He commented
that decertification of Guatemala as a cooperating partner in
the war on drugs was almost certain to happen imminently, and
said we would be calling on this government and its
successors to greatly improve counter-narcotics cooperation.
The lack of significant improvement in counter-narcotics
performance would imperil Guatemala's participation in CAFTA.
The Ambassador said that CAFTA offers, in our view, the best
hope the Central American region has had since the Alliance
for Progress to reduce poverty, and that we hoped Guatemala
would quickly address the non-trade issues that could become
impediments to CAFTA ratification. Whitbeck agreed that
CAFTA was an historic opportunity for Guatemala, and said all
parties should be working to ensure that the negotiation is a
success.


5. (C) Whitbeck said that reducing the power and influence of
the narcotics mafias and containing violent crime would be
difficult challenges for the next government. He believes
the military should be reduced, and its excess troops turned
into a new police force to replace "the current corrupt
force." He said that, if elected, he would seek USG advice on
his ministers and senior government officials to ensure that
he was not putting individuals with ties to organized crime
in positions of responsibility.


6. (C) Comment: The long election season is just beginning,
and it is too soon to tell which two candidates will make it
to the second round. Whitbeck will have both the
disadvantage and the advantage of not being the candidate of
a major party. The Partido Patriota, while small, built a
public name for itself in the 2001 and 2002 protests against
the Portillo government, and is reported to have received
significant funding from the Gutierrez-Bosch conglomerate.
Whitbeck has a better grasp on the realities and needs of
rural Guatemalans than any of the other potential candidates
and is progressive on all the issues of importance to us. At
this stage, however, the success of his candidacy remains a
long shot.
Hamilton