Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03GUATEMALA2634
2003-10-10 18:55:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Guatemala
Cable title:  

JUST ANOTHER LATIN AMERICAN ELECTION, FOR NOW

Tags:  PGOV KDEM PREL PINR GT UN 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 002634 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2013
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL PINR GT UN
SUBJECT: JUST ANOTHER LATIN AMERICAN ELECTION, FOR NOW

Classified By: PolCouns David Lindwall for reason 1.5 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 002634

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2013
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL PINR GT UN
SUBJECT: JUST ANOTHER LATIN AMERICAN ELECTION, FOR NOW

Classified By: PolCouns David Lindwall for reason 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: The election campaign, which got off to a
violent start, marred by allegations of expected fraud, has
settled in recent weeks into what the UN mission aptly
described as "just another Latin American election." The
continuing heated confrontation between the ruling FRG and
the opposition, however, lead many to believe that further
violence is possible. Polls continue to show Berger with a
conformable lead, but the gap between the three front
runners, including General Rios Montt, is narrowing. UNE
candidate Colom told us that if the FRG makes it into the
second round of the elections, all the opposition parties
have agreed to oppose the FRG. The Supreme Electoral
Tribunal decided unanimously to allow FRG candidate for mayor
of Guatemala City Rabbe to run, overturning an earlier
decision by the Registry of Persons that he had not met the
conditions to be a candidate. The OAS Election Observation
Mission filed complaints against President Portillo and
Guatemala City Mayor (and candidate for President) Garcia
Gallont for using public resources to promote partisan
campaigns. The EU election observation mission is on the
ground, and will have a large scale presence around the
country on election day. End summary.

The Calm Before the Storm?
--------------

2. (C) Since the beginning of August, the national election
campaign in Guatemala has been characterized by fiery stump
speeches by all candidates in the most remote corners of the
country and uninspiring public debates (with only the smaller
parties participating) in the capital. The violent
confrontation that characterized the early part of the
campaign and the daily allegations that the FRG was going to
commit massive fraud throughout the campaign and on election
day have virtually disappeared, at least for now. An
internal MINUGUA document (please protect) of early October,
notes that of the twenty cases of murders of "political
activists," only two were clearly politically motivated, and
most of the others were clearly not politically motivated.
It further concludes that the election campaign has become

"just another Latin American election." With levels of
confrontation still high, and with the UNE and FRG hotly
contesting second place (in order to make it into the second
round of elections),we can not rule out the possibility of
future violence. But for now, we agree that the election
campaign has settled into a more normal rhythm.

Polls Show Gap Narrowing
--------------

3. (U) An unpublished Noguera poll, taken between September
26 and October 5, shows that GANA candidate Berger's lead
over UNE's Colom and the FRG's Rios Montt has narrowed
somewhat, though it still gives Berger a 20 point lead.
While we caution that polls in Guatemala are widely viewed as
subject to partisan manipulation, the Noguera poll has been
the most consistent with anecdotal evidence and our own
soundings of voter preferences outside the capital.
Following are Noguera's conclusions:

- voter preference as a percentage of total respondents
- July August September October
-------------- --------------
Berger - GANA 30.5 39.6 40.7 36.2
Colom - UNE 12.6 12.5 16.7 15.9
Rios Montt - FRG 10.3 11.5 12.2 15.5
Lopez R. - PAN 3.4 4.2 4.9 6.3
Undecided 23.5 17.7 13.7 13.0


4. (U) The poll notes that respondents view Berger as best
positioned to create more jobs, but give him only a slight
lead over Rios Montt in reducing crime. The poll also
concludes that 57.7% of respondents said they would never
vote for Rios Montt, compared to 5.9% who said they would
never vote for Berger.


5. (C) UNE candidate Alvaro Colom told the Ambassador on
October 8 that the ten smaller parties (all but the FRG and
GANA) have agreed to join forces and support whichever of the
ten parties makes it into the second round of elections. He
said that if none of them make it, and the runoff is between
GANA and the FRG, they will all support GANA. He
acknowledged that none of the ten party leaders could command
the second round vote of their followers, but said it was
inconceivable that the FRG would pick up support from
opposition voters.

Green Light to Rabbe's Mayoral Candidacy
--------------

6. (U) On October 8 the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE)
ruled unanimously that FRG candidate for Mayor of Guatemala
City, Luis Rabbe, was eligible to run, overturning an earlier
decision by the Registry of Persons which found him
ineligible. The TSE members concluded that the FRG did not
in fact have a functioning Municipal Assembly, and therefore,
the FRG's National Assembly had correctly chosen the mayoral
candidate. While some in the opposition groused at the
decision, the TSE is widely viewed as impartial, and their
unanimous decision put an end to the controversy. The
Noguera poll gives Rabbe 10.2% of voter preferences, compared
with 47.0% for Unionista candidate (and former President)
Alvaro Arzu and 20.2% for GANA's candidate Jorge Briz.

OAS Questions Partisan Actions of Portillo and Garcia Gallont
-------------- --------------

7. (U) The OAS EOM filed complaints with the Public Ministry
on October 9 alleging that President Portillo and Mayor of
Guatemala City Fritz Garcia improperly used their public
positions to promote partisan candidacies. The complaint
alleges that Portillo participated in FRG campaign rallies
after the May convocation of national elections, violating
the electoral law which forbids public officials from
participating in partisan events. Mayor Garcia Gallont, who
is running as the presidential candidate for the Unionista
Party, was accused of printing campaign propaganda on all
municipal receipts. The complaints have been filed with the
Public Ministry for investigation and possible prosecution.
Neither Portillo nor Garcia Gallont have responded to the
charges publicly so far.

EU Observation Mission on the Ground
--------------

8. (SBU) The Ambassador met with the head of the EU electoral
observation mission, Jannis Sakellariou, and his deputy,
Rafael Lopez Pintor, on October 8. They noted that the EU
mission will soon be opening offices in different regions of
Guatemala, and will have a large presence on election day.
The EU mission is coordinating with the OAS EOM to avoid
duplication of efforts, but told us that efforts to
coordinate with the OAS in other recent elections had had
"mixed success." The OAS EOM similarly told us that there is
good communication between the missions, but that the mandate
of the missions was different enough that coordination was
only effective on very specific issues.

Lots of Illiterate Voters
--------------

9. (U) The TSE completed its update of the electoral register
("padron"),and announced that a total of 5,073,310
Guatemalans had registered to vote. The total represents an
increase over the registry from 1999 roughly equal to
population growth. Some illustrative figures from the
registry: 29% of registered voters (1,477,814) identified
themselves as illiterate; 26% of registered voters live in
Guatemala City and its suburbs; the indigenous provinces of
Quiche, Huehuetenango and San Marcos (that historically vote
heavily for the FRG) make up 18% of registered voters.

Comment
--------------

10. (C) Expressions of concern that FRG fraud or manipulation
could still influence the election continue to surface, but
in recent weeks the election campaign has taken on the
appearance of "just another Latin American election." This
week's "fear du jour" is that the FRG has already contracted
all public transportation for election day, depriving the
other parties of means to transport their voters to the
polls. While it is possible that the FRG has begun
contracting busses, some of our opposition contacts have
expressed doubt that the FRG could corner the market
nationally. We are not prepared to speculate that the final
four weeks of this heated campaign will be as "normal" as the
past ten weeks, especially if the FRG and UNE view themselves
as neck and neck for a space in the second round. However,
the growing presence of international observers, especially
in the countryside, and the public stand by the OAS against
electoral violence and abuses to the electoral law, create
disincentives for a last minute increase in bad behavior by
the FRG or other political actors. The Embassy will be
sending out teams of reporting officers to the countryside in
coming weeks to provide snapshots of voter preferences and
election issues dominating the minds of rural voters.
HAMILTON