ELECTION UPDATE: OAS CRITICIZES ELECTORAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 GUATEMALA 002550

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2013
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM PHUM PREL GT
SUBJECT: ELECTION UPDATE: OAS CRITICIZES ELECTORAL
VIOLENCE; BERGER MAINTAINS LEAD IN POLLS

Classified By: PolCouns David Lindwall for reason 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: The OAS Electoral Observation Mission (EOM)
issued its second report, criticizing the GOG's failure to
investigate and prosecute electoral violence, especially the
murders of political activists and the violent FRG protests
of July. On October 1, the OAS EOM opened offices in seven
provinces. Ten parties joined together to criticize recently
published polls which show them trailing the GANA coalition,
and in some cases the FRG. The ex-PAC continue to protest
against Rios Montt holding rallies in their communities.
Every party has its own poll, though all the polls, including
the FRG's, put Oscar Berger ahead. FRG candidate for Mayor
of Guatemala City Rabbe was disqualified by the Registry of
Citizens, setting off another legal battle which could force
the FRG out of the race for Mayor of the capital. Berger's
chief of staff told us that there is a chance Berger will win
on the first round, but a greater chance that he will face
off against Rios Montt or Colom in a second round. GANA does
not believe electoral fraud will be significant. The
Ambassador received assurances from the FRG that they will
respect the outcome of the election, even if unfavorable.
end summary.

OAS calls on GOG to investigate electoral violence
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2. (C) Former President Valentin Paniagua, head of the OAS
Electoral Observation Mission, gave reporters a copy of the
second OAS EOM report on September 29, in which the OAS
criticizes the lack of investigation and prosecution of cases
of possible electoral violence. The report notes that 20
political party activists have been murdered since the
convocation of elections in May, and that none of the cases
has been successfully investigated, much less prosecuted, by
the GOG. It goes on to say that no legal action has been
taken against any of the participants in the violent protests
organized by the FRG on July 24-25 in which one reporter
died, several people were injured and property was destroyed.
In a closed conversation with the Ambassadors of the Donor
Dialogue Group, made up of representatives of donor nations
and international organizations, the OAS EOM representative
said that their preliminary investigations suggest that most
of the 20 murders were not politically related -- half of
them are of ANN party members from Chiquimula who are
believed to have been killed in a fight between rival
organized crime gangs; two of the murders are of PAN
candidates that even the PAN have told us were not
politically motivated; and at least two of the murders of UNE
activists are clearly attributed to common crime. MINUGUA
confirmed that their analysis of the 20 murders coincides
with that of the OAS. There is little doubt that some of the
murders were politically motivated, however, and the lack of
investigation and prosecution of any of the cases creates the
perception that the GOG is tolerating political violence.


3. (U) The OAS EOM has brought the first contingent of
foreign observers into the country and has announced that it
will open offices in the Departments of Coban, Zacapa, Peten,
Quezaltenango, Solola, Huehuetenango and Quiche by October 1.
They announced that they would have 100 observers blanketing
the country on election day. The Embassy meets several times
a week with the OAS EOM, and will be providing a security
briefing for its members on October 2, at the OAS's request.


4. (C) The OAS and MINUGUA have both issued statements
calling for greater political tolerance, after mobs of former
civil patrol members, who argue the FRG did not comply with
its commitment to compensate all of them for the service
during the internal conflict, have created disturbances at
some of Rios Montt's campaign rallies in the countryside.
Groups of angry ex-PACs threatened a Rios Montt rally in
Nebaj (Quiche),kept the General from campaigning in two
towns in San Marcos, and have threatened to disrupt his
rallies in other areas, including the town of Chicacao, where
the former PAC's burned the municipal building in June. The
GOG's decision in late September to assign 70 million
Quetzales (roughly $9 million) to Peten ex-PAC leader Rosenda
Perez (for economic development programs in the Peten)
infuriated other PAC leaders, and has led to renewed threats
to disrupt his campaign rallies. MINUGUA Chief Tom Koenigs
told the Donor Dialogue Group that, despite his personal
antipathy for Rios Montt, he believes that it is important
that MINUGUA oppose all political intolerance, noting that if
the FRG were keeping other candidates from holding campaign
rallies as has happened to them, the whole international
community would be outraged.

Every party has its own poll
--------------

5. (U) Ten presidential candidates representing the smaller
parties competing in the election (all but the FRG and GANA)
held a news conference in late September to complain that the
polls that are appearing in the press intentionally
underestimate their support, and argued that this is a
strategy to favor the GANA and FRG candidates who have more
influence with segments of the media. In response, one daily
(Siglo XXI) printed the "polls" of the PAN, UNE and Unionista
parties on October 1. Their results did not differ greatly
from the professional polls on the percentage of the vote
that Berger, Rios Montt and Colom would get, but each placed
their own candidate significantly higher than other polls,
giving them a big portion of the undecided vote. Following
are the results:

- UNE poll PAN poll Unionista poll
-------------- --------------
Berger - GANA 37% 27% 35%
Colom - UNE 22 20 14
Rios Montt - FRG 12 13 10
Lopez - PAN 7 18 7
Garcia - Unionista 6 8 13


6. (U) The San Carlos University (public) and Rafael Landivar
University (Jesuit) polled their students in September
regarding their presidential preferences. Radio Sonora also
polled its public in September. These are "user" polls, and
are not intended to be scientific samples. We list the
latest Prensa Libre poll (which purports to be from a
scientific sample) for comparison. Following are the results
of these polls:

- Prensa Libre Radio Sonora USAC URL
-------------- --------------
Berger - GANA 38% 67% 35% 67%
Colom - UNE 18 16 22 15
Rios Montt - FRG 11 8 4 2
Lopez - PAN 5 7 7 2
Garcia - Unionista 3 1 8 5


7. (C) President Portillo told Ambassador Hamilton in early
September that the FRG's polls showed Berger ahead with 32%,
but followed closely by Rios Montt with 23%. The FRG is
tight lipped with us about their polling numbers, saying
(disingenuously, in our view) only that they are confident
they will win overwhelmingly in the first round.

Will the FRG accept defeat?
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8. (C) The violent FRG-led protests of July 24-25 generated
concerns that the FRG is prepared to use violence if they are
not pleased with the electoral outcome. With all polls,
including the FRG's, showing Rios Montt significantly behind
Berger with only five weeks left in the election, there is a
possibility that the FRG will not make it into the second
round, and a very serious possibility that they will
ultimately lose the election to Berger even if they do make
it into the second round. The Ambassador raised concerns
about potential FRG refusal to accept the election results
with Ambassador Antonio Arenales (FRG insider and
congressional candidate) and Acting First Vice President of
Congress Zury Rios on September 27. Both assured him that
the FRG will be respectful of the electoral outcome.
Congresswoman Rios is seeking meetings in the Department on
October 14 to discuss the FRG's vision of the electoral
process, among other things.

FRG Mayoral candidate disqualified to run
--------------

9. (SBU) In late September the Registry of Citizens
determined that the candidacy of Luis Rabbe for Mayor of
Guatemala City, representing the FRG, was not valid, as he
was selected by the FRG's National Convention, and not by the
FRG's Municipal Convention, as required by the electoral law.
The FRG quickly filed an appeal, arguing that in the 1999
election Rabbe had similarly been selected by the National
Convention, and the Registry of Citizens had not objected.
The Registry of Citizens responded that two wrongs don't make
a right. The appeal is being considered by the Supreme
Electoral Tribunal, and could ultimately be appealed to the
Constitutional Court. With time fast running out, it is
possible the FRG will not be on the mayoral ballot for
Guatemala City. FRG leaders have not responded publicly in
defense of Rabbe, leading many of our contacts to conclude
that the FRG may not be upset over Rabbe's troubles. August
polls placed him in fourth place for the mayoralty with 7% of
the vote, behind Alvaro Arzu with 40%.

GANA rules out significant fraud
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10. (C) The Ambassador met with Eduardo Gonzalez, Campaign
Chairman for GANA candidate Oscar Berger, on October 1.
Gonzalez said that they just received a new poll which shows
GANA candidate Berger sustaining his high levels of support
in the final stretch of the campaign. Gonzalez said there is
a small chance that Berger could win in the first round, but
said there is a much greater likelihood that Berger will have
to face Rios Montt or Colom in a second round. The poll
results for Colom and Rios Montt are too close to speculate
on which has a better chance, he commented, adding that GANA
leaders do not believe fraud on election day will be
significant. He also opined that the intense international
scrutiny being given to this campaign would make it difficult
for the FRG to dispute the election results in the event they
are defeated. Gonzalez will be in Washington on October
9-10, and is requesting a meeting with WHA DAS Fisk to
discuss the elections and bilateral relations in the event
Berger wins.


11. (C) The Ambassador asked Gonzalez if GANA had the kind of
communication with the FRG it needed to avoid violence and
unproductive confrontations, offering the neutral ground of
the Ambassador's Residence and our good offices for meetings
between the two sides, if they could be useful to defuse
tensions. Gonzalez expressed appreciation for the offer, and
said he would definitely keep it in mind. He stated that
there is not a lot of contact between the two sides, but at
this time, the GANA prefers to keep it low key as anyone who
meets with the FRG would automatically become suspect in the
public's eyes. He commented, however, that tensions could
rise at any time (as they did in July),and that having the
option of a neutral ground to meet with the FRG was
important. The Ambassador had earlier made a similar offer
to Zury Rios, who responded similarly that it was an
important offer to be able to draw on if the situation in the
future should warrant it.

Comment
--------------

12. (C) Local concerns about electoral fraud have diminished
significantly in recent weeks, after an aggressive Embassy
campaign to publicize the secrecy of the vote and the
guarantees in place. The OAS EOM has also been effective in
showing that it is prepared to take on the government (and
the FRG) on issues of electoral violence. The permanent
presence of the OAS in the countryside, beginning October 1,
will also have a calming effect at the provincial level. The
"concern of the day" among our Guatemalan contacts has become
the fear that the FRG will not respect the outcome of the
election. We have received assurances from the FRG that they
will respect the outcome, and will continue to raise this
matter in all meetings with the FRG.
HAMILTON