Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03GUATEMALA2334
2003-09-09 21:31:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Guatemala
Cable title:  

OAS MISSION WORRIED ABOUT ELECTORAL VIOLENCE

Tags:  PGOV KDEM GT 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 002334 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR WHA A/S NOREIGA, WHA DAS FISK, WHA/CEN DIR.
TRIVELLI
NSC FOR AMB. MAISTO

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM GT
SUBJECT: OAS MISSION WORRIED ABOUT ELECTORAL VIOLENCE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 002334

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR WHA A/S NOREIGA, WHA DAS FISK, WHA/CEN DIR.
TRIVELLI
NSC FOR AMB. MAISTO

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM GT
SUBJECT: OAS MISSION WORRIED ABOUT ELECTORAL VIOLENCE


1. (SBU) Summary: The Ambassador met with OAS Election
Observation Mission Chief Valentin Paniagua on September 8.
The Ambassador pledged continued USG support to the OAS
mission, briefed Paniagua on the re-certification process,
and raised the need for a private communications channel
between major political parties. Paniagua said the national
electoral registry was relatively clean, and was forthcoming
with his concerns about pre-electoral violence and
appreciative of USG support. End Summary.


2. (SBU) The Ambassador acknowledged that any USG
re-certification announcement would be misinterpreted by some
as having political motives. Nevertheless, the decision will
be taken purely on the merits of GOG actions to meet
technical requirements. The Ambassador also discussed the
need for a confidential communication channel between the
major parties. He is exploring willingness of the FRG and
GANA to have such communication at the vice presidential
level. Paniagua agreed this could prove very useful,
especially in the event of an electoral crisis. He noted
that the FRG's exit from the Political Party Forum of the
Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) was unfortunate. Some such
a forum is needed to condemn abuses such as the July 24-25
protests. The Ambassador said we would help on this issue.

Concerned about Violence; Need for Public Ethics Code
-------------- --------------


3. (SBU) The GOG's passive response to mounting electoral
violence, Paniagua said, is his greatest concern. Despite
evidence freely available to the government, there has been
no punitive action against organizers of the July 24-25
protests. The GOG passivity is totally unacceptable and
fosters impunity. The Ambassador encouraged Paniagua to
press the GOG on this point.


4. (SBU) Paniagua said the press (the daily "El Periodico")
has investigated a rumor that a mass shifting of imprisoned
gang members scheduled shortly before the November 9 election
will be used as cover for a mass jailbreak to intimidate
voters from turning out. He asked if the Embassy was aware
of this rumor. The Ambassador said yes, but gave it little
credence (Note: After reflecting on this, the Ambassador
raised it with President Portillo later that day (SepTel).
End Note.)


5. (SBU) Paniagua asked for USG support to push the GOG to
issue a "Code of Ethics" for public servants, to prevent
abuse of government resources or authority. The idea would
not be to create new prohibitions (the existing ones are
adequate) but to give them publicity and a higher profile.
The VP was non-committal when he made this suggestion, but
later issued a government directive referring to
constitutional prohibitions. An OAS code would go further by
compiling all existing legal prohibitions in a coherent
document for widespread dissemination among public servants.
The Ambassador encouraged this effort. Paniagua said he has
been holding off going back to President Portillo until he
has a full agenda to discuss and until he decides whether it
would be more appropriate for the executive or TSE to do.
The Ambassador urged Paniagua to raise it with both; Portillo
may sincerely wish to recuperate his personal honor and
reputation by playing a positive role in the election
process. For example, the decision to retire Gen. Rios Sosa,
a wise one in our view, was made by the President at some
cost.

Paniagua: Electoral Registry Clean
--------------


6. (SBU) Paniagua said that the first phase of his Mission,
to verify the electoral register, is drawing to a close
without evidence of fraud. The register has not grown
significantly beyond expectations, a final scrub of the
deceased, other ineligible voters and those who have moved,
is proceeding smoothly. He also thought that the various
controls in the electoral law and system would be adequate to
prevent fraud.

Berger's Return
--------------


7. (SBU) Paniagua said he had attended Oscar Berger's
homecoming speech at the airport on September 7 and was
impressed by the spontaneous turnout and breadth of Berger's
support. He was less impressed by Berger's claim that he
would win in the first round.

Comment
--------------


8. (SBU) Paniagua will play a key role should an electoral
crisis evolve during the two-stage elections on November 9
and December 28. Some have expressed doubt that he is
assertive enough to face down official fraud or violence. We
believe he is already making important efforts to do so, and
will continue to be a key ally throughout the process.
HAMILTON