TOUR D'HORIZON WITH PRESIDENTIAL PRE-CANDIDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L GUATEMALA 000218

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SNAR PHUM ETRD GT
SUBJECT: TOUR D'HORIZON WITH PRESIDENTIAL PRE-CANDIDATE
ALVARO COLOM

Classified By: PolCouns David E. Lindwall for reason 1.5 (d).


1. (C) At a January 24 breakfast meeting with the Ambassador,
presidential pre-candate Alvaro Colom of the center-left
Union for National Hope Party (UNE) said that the main
challenge for the winner in this year's presidential election
will be to jump-start the economy and to shut down the
transnational criminal mafias that currently have so much
influence in the government. He said that he would be
meeting with PAN presidential pre-candidate Oscar Berger
later that day to begin talks on an agreement to make these
the focus of their common campaign against the ruling FRG.
Colom dismissed rumors of his joining forces with the PAN
during the first round of the election, but said that a
second round alliance is already being discussed. Colom
believes he currently has 17% of the vote, though polls we
have seen show him at between 5% and 12%. Colom does not
expect electoral fraud on voting day to be significant, but
believes the FRG is already "stacking the deck" by wooing the
ex-PAC's and others with irresponsible financial promises.


2. (C) The Ambassador told Colom that we share his concerns
over the influence of organized crime as well as his interest
in promoting economic growth. The Ambassador discussed our
support for the idea of setting up a commission, under the
auspices of the UN/OAS, to investigate the operations of
"clandestine groups." He noted that we look forward to
working with the winner of the next election to curb the
influence of these transnational criminal mafias. The
Ambassador said that the best hope for reducing poverty in
the region was the successful negotiation of a free trade
agreement between Central America and the United States. A
free trade agreement would meet opposition from sectors of
U.S. society concerned about the situation of human and labor
rights in Guatemala, the lack of resolution of the cases of
11 Amcits murdered since 1999 and the lack of cooperation in
the war against drugs. It is critical that there be
significant progress in these areas before CAFTA can be
concluded. Colom agreed, and said that his party is a big
supporter of CAFTA (Note: In private life, Colom is an
apparel exporter. End note).


3. (C) Comment: Colom won 20% of the vote in the 1999
elections and, despite the subsequent fracturing of
Guatemala's left, continues to have significant popular
support. It is too early to guess whether his movement can
make it into the second round of elections, but at a minimum
the votes of his supporters will be critical in a tightly
fought race.
Hamilton