EMBASSY GUATEMALA'S 90-DAY GOAL PLAN

UNCLAS GUATEMALA 002065

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

FOR WHA/AS NORIEGA, WHA/DAS FISK AND WHA/CEN TRIVELLI FROM
AMBASSADOR HAMILTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: AMGT PREL GT WHA
SUBJECT: EMBASSY GUATEMALA'S 90-DAY GOAL PLAN

REF: STATE 230096


1. (SBU) Summary: Embassy Guatemala's highest priority goals
for the next 90 days include ensuring that the national
elections (to be held on November 9) are free and fair; that
Guatemala ratifies and places in force a bilateral
counter-narcotics maritime agreement with the U.S.; and that
Guatemala ratifies a status of forces agreement covering the
New Horizons joint military exercise, setting a precedent for
a future Article 98 Agreement. End summary.


2. (SBU) Goal 1: National elections are held on schedule,
and are judged to be free and fair.
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Guatemala will hold elections for President, Congress and
local authorities on November 9. The outcome of the
elections, and the election process itself, will have a
determining impact on the continued consolidation of
democracy in Guatemala, following 36 years of internal
conflict and an uneven history of democratic institution
building. Post is promoting this goal by public and private
diplomacy to address the serious challenges that have arisen
in this election; by providing technical support to the
Supreme Electoral Tribunal to improve its capacity to hold a
good election; by providing financial assistance to
international (OAS) and national election observation
missions; by funding NGO efforts to monitor potential
manipulation of the election by GOG pork-barrel spending; and
by an Ambassadorial message urging Guatemalans to not let
rumors of potential fraud discourage them from voting.


3. (SBU) Goal 2: The Guatemalan Congress ratifies and the
GOG places in force a bilateral counter-narcotics maritime
agreement with us.
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Guatemala and the United States signed a bilateral
counter-narcotics maritime agreement on May 27. The placing
in force of this agreement will represent a major
disincentive for narcotics traffickers to continue to use
Guatemala's coasts as transit zones for cocaine bound for US
markets, and could encourage other countries in the region to
sign similar accords. The resulting operation of US law
enforcement vessels in Guatemalan waters will also serve
colaterally as a disincentive for alien smuggling operations,
which currently use Guatemala as an off-loading point for
aliens (including special interest aliens) heading north. We
had sought such an agreement with the GOG for ten years. In
recent months we have negotiated the text of the agreement,
signed it, and President Portillo sent it to Congress for
ratification. The Embassy is promoting this goal by pressing
Congress to expedite consideration of this agreement; by
lobbying all the major parties to vote for the agreement; and
by pressing the Portillo Government to secure prompt
legislative action followed by immediate implementation.


4. (SBU) Goal 3: Guatemala ratifies a SOFA for the 2004 New
Horizons joint military exercise, which contains generic ICC
protections.
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Guatemala has not ratified a SOFA with us in more than two
years, and ratification of the New Horizons agreement would
not only provide essential protections needed for this
specific exercise, it would also establish a precedent for a
broader SOFA containing ICC protections. The Embassy has
negotiated a text of the New Horizons SOFA with the GOG,
which includes generic language protecting US troops from
extradition to an international court. We view the
ratification of the New Horizons SOFA as a stepping stone in
the process of securing eventual approval of an Article 98
Agreement. Efforts to negotiate a separate Article 98
Agreement, even using a generic text which does not mention
the ICC, have not prospered. We will continue pressing the
Portillo government for an Article 98 Agreement, but
realistically may have to wait for a more favorable opinion
by the next government. The New Horizons agreement has been
forwarded by President Portillo to Congress for ratification.
The Embassy is promoting this goal by pressing the
Congressional leadership to expedite consideration of the
agreement; by lobbying all the major parties to secure their
votes for this agreement; and by pressing the GOG to use its
influence with Congress to expedite ratification.
HAMILTON