NEW ELECTION POLL PUTS RIOS MONTT FIFTH, WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L GUATEMALA 002052

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/12/2013
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL PINR PHUM GT
SUBJECT: NEW ELECTION POLL PUTS RIOS MONTT FIFTH, WITH
THREE PERCENT; OTHER ELECTION NEWS

Classified By: PolCouns David Lindwall for reason 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (SBU) Election poll results released on August 12 show
GANA presidential candidate Oscar Berger leading the pack
with 44% (up from 37% in July); followed by UNE candidate
Alvaro Colom with 17% (up from 13% in July) and FRG candidate
Efrain Rios Montt with 3% (down from 8% in July in the same
poll). Responses to polling questions regarding the
FRG-directed violent protests of July 24-25 indicate that
many previously undecided voters blame the FRG leadership for
the disturbances, and decided as a result to vote against the
FRG. While electoral polls in Guatemala are often inaccurate
and, at a minimum, underestimate the rural vote (where the
FRG has its strength),anecdotal evidence developed by the
Embassy from informal surveys conducted recently in rural
areas supports the conclusion that Berger remains
significantly ahead in voter preferences, not only in the
capital, but also in much of the countryside.


2. (C) Independent presidential candidate Rodolfo Paiz
withdrew from the presidential race during the first week of
August, and called on his supporters to vote for Oscar
Berger. There are reports that DC candidate Ricardo Bueso
will pull his hat out of the electoral ring by August 14.
Paiz, a supermarket heir who headed a small political party,
polled 1% in August, and Bueso failed to reach 2.5%, after
spending millions of dollars of his own money in the
campaign. The withdrawal of both candidates will favor Oscar
Berger as their support base was mostly anti-FRG.


3. (C) The FRG held its congressional nominating assembly on
August 9, and, to the surprise of many, gave four prominent
slots on the national slate of legislative candidates to
nephews and nieces of General Rios Montt. The strategy of
favoring family members over local party bosses or campaign
contributors signals a change in the FRG's electoral strategy
from one of winning votes to one of insuring that their
legislative block, in the event of losing the presidential
election, remains loyal. The calculated decision to
sacrifice electoral votes in exchange for holding the FRG
bloc in Congress together after an electoral defeat suggests
that the FRG believes their chances of winning the
presidential election are not high.


4. (U) The Supreme Court on August 11 accepted a new appeal
against the candidacy of Rios Montt. With Rios Montt now
registered as a candidate and with the Constitutional Court
having already ruled that no appeals can be accepted that
contradict its July 14 ruling that Rios Montt can be a
candidate, there is no reason to expect this latest challenge
to succeed.
HAMILTON