POLITICAL TENSIONS RELATED TO RIOS MONTT'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L GUATEMALA 001981

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2013
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KDEM GT
SUBJECT: POLITICAL TENSIONS RELATED TO RIOS MONTT'S
CANDIDACY SUBSIDE

REF: GUATEMALA 1952

Classified By: Charge d'Affairs David Lindwall for reason 1.5 (b) and (
d).


1. (SBU) Following the Constitutional Court's controversial
July 30 decision to order the Supreme Electoral Tribunal
(TSE) and Registry of Persons to register FRG leader Efrain
Rios Montt as a presidential candidate in the November
elections (reftel),the political opposition and civil
society groups have changed their strategy from opposing Rios
Montt's candidacy in the courts to a strategy of getting out
the anti-Rios Montt vote on election day. Two political
parties (the UNE and Partido Patriota) filed motions with the
TSE calling on it to disqualify Rios Montt's candidacy, but

SIPDIS
the action was largely symbolic as the TSE has already made
it clear it will not go against the instructions of the
Constitutional Court. Editorials in all the leading
newspapers focused on the importance of educating voters
about the ills of keeping the FRG in power, and tacitly
accepted that Rios Montt is now a candidate and the decision
will be made at the ballot box.


2. (U) In statements to the press, OAS Election Monitoring
Mission Chief, Former President of Peru Valentin Paniagua
called on all sides to refrain from electoral violence,
saying that the events of July 24-25 only cloud the process
of free and fair elections. When questioned about the
Constitutional Court's decision to allow Rios Montt to be a
candidate, Paniagua responded that the Mission would not
comment on the legal qualifications of any candidate as that
was up to Guatemalan courts to decide.


3. (C) Paniagua's deputy, Moises Benamor, told us that the
Mission was in contact with numerous political sectors on
July 31, and all had come around to accepting, however
reluctantly, the Constitutional Court's decision. He said
that at the July 31 meeting of the OAS-sponsored Forum of
Political Parties, the opposition parties did not discuss
challenging the finding of the Constitutional Court, and
spent most of the session discussing ways to bring the FRG
back into the forum (Note: opposition party reps expelled the
FRG from the forum after the FRG-led violent protests of July
24-25. End note). Benamor told us that there were reports
that some in the Supreme Court were upset about the
Constitutional Court's decision, but had not been able to
come up with a legal strategy to challenge it. Benamor's
assessment was that the phase for challenging Rios Montt's
candidacy in the courts was now effectively over, and that
all sides would focus on winning votes.


4. (C) Comment: Avenues for prolonging the constitutional
challenge to Rios Montt's presidential candidacy were
effectively closed by the Constitutional Court's July 30
decision, and the registration of his candidacy by the
Supreme Electoral Tribunal on July 31. While procedural
challenges, like the ones filed by UNE and the Partido
Patriota, may continue to crop up, all sides now recognize
that Rios Montt will be a candidate and the battle will take
place on election day.
LINDWALL