NATIONAL ELECTIONS CONVOKED FOR NOVEMBER 9

UNCLAS GUATEMALA 001281

SIPDIS

HARARE FOR BRUCE WHARTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM GT
SUBJECT: NATIONAL ELECTIONS CONVOKED FOR NOVEMBER 9



1. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) officially announced
on May 15 the convocation of elections for President, all 158
seats in Guatemala's unicameral Congress and mayors and city
council members to take place on November 9, 2003. If no
candidate for President receives more than 50% of the vote, a
second round of elections (only for President) will be held
on December 28. The convocation by the TSE officially begins
the electoral campaign, though "unofficial" campaigning has
been going on for several months. Parties can now officially
register their candidates, and it is expected that the major
parties will name their candidates within the next few weeks.
The ruling Frente Republicano Guatemalteco (FRG) is
scheduled to hold its national assembly on May 24, at which
it will nominate its candidate. The GANA coalition is
backing the presidential candidacy of Oscar Berger, but is
still considering its slate for legislators and local
government positions. The left-of-center UNE (which garnered
20% of the vote in the 1999 elections) will again register
Alvaro Colom as its candidate, and the small Democracia
Cristiana (DC) is supporting Ricardo Bueso for President.
The Partido de Avanzada Nacional (PAN) recently split and has
not yet identified a presidential candidate.


2. A legal controversy over the make-up of the TSE remains
unresolved. When the current members of the TSE were
sworn-in in 2002, one of the permanent members did not accept
the position. He was replaced by an alternate, but Congress
failed to elect a new permanent member as some contend the
law demands. On May 14 the Constitutional Court instructed
Congress to elect a permanent member by May 15. A vote was
held in Congress on possible replacements, but none of the
candidates received the required two thirds majority.
Representatives of three of the major political parties told
reporters that they do not believe this impasse should have
any bearing on the legitimacy of the elections, but
constitutional lawyers argue that the current composition of
the TSE exposes the entire electoral process to future
litigation and possibly annulment by the Constitutional
Court. Congress will hold a special session in July to try
once again to replace the missing permanent member of the TSE.


3. Comment: The opening of the electoral race will distract
the government, the political parties and many elements of
civil society from other urgent tasks of governing and
legislating during the next few months. Polls have not been
published since the recent break-up of the PAN, and it is not
clear which potential candidates have the best chance of
making it into the second round. The biggest unknown remains
the question of whether Rios Montt will be named the
candidate of the FRG, and how the courts would deal with his
candidacy. There is a growing move among some of the
opposition parties to unite in order to better confront the
FRG. Should former General Rios Montt decide to run, it is
expected that the momentum to unite the opposition will grow.
HAMILTON