In move that could have big impact, accord

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000859

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, S/CT

NSC FOR E. MILLARD

LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05-22-13
TAGS: PGOV PINS PHUM CE KWMM
SUBJECT: In move that could have big impact, accord
between radical JVP and president's party seems imminent

Refs: Colombo 851, and previous

(U) Classified by Lewis Amselem, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons: 1.5 (B, D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The radical JVP and President
Kumaratunga's party seem set to ink a MOU very soon.
Due to differences, the two sides have reportedly agreed
to be vague on peace process issues. If the accord is
indeed concluded, it could impact the peace process,
with Tamils complaining that it is effectively an
alliance of Sinhalese chauvinists. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) CLOSING IN ON AN ACCORD: The radical Janantha
Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party and President
Kumaratunga's Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) seem very
close to inking a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)
formally allying the parties. (Note: The SLFP is the
key constituent element of the Opposition People's
Alliance, "PA," political grouping, which includes
various parties and is led by the president. The PA had
a formal alliance with the JVP in September 2001 that
later lapsed. The SLFP is taking the lead with the
accord now because several small leftist parties in the
PA no longer want to work with the JVP. End Note.) It
is unclear exactly as to when the accord might be
signed, but some contacts have told us that it could
happen as early as next week or by mid-June. Jeyaraj
Fernandopoulle, a PA/SLFP MP, told us that he thought it
would be signed "sooner rather than later."
Fernandopoulle said Kumaratunga is still reviewing the
draft MOU, which was prepared by SLFP and JVP teams, who
have been negotiating its terms for months (see
Reftels). He had heard the president was "pleased" with
the draft MOU and planned to have it approved by the
SLFP's governing committee soon. After that, it would
become official when signed by the SLFP and JVP party
secretaries.

SIPDIS


3. (C) BASICALLY AN ELECTORAL PACT: With respect to
substance, the accord, from what we hear, is basically
an electoral pact coupled with a statement of joint
principles. (Note: Amazingly for Sri Lanka's
notoriously porous political environment, a draft text
of the accord has not leaked out as of yet.)
Fernandopoulle told us that the draft was quite
elaborate as to where each party would run its
candidates for Parliament, so that they would unite
their combined vote and not divide it. (Note: In the
December 2001 national election, the PA and JVP received
almost as many votes as the United National Party. They
were not allied at the time and lost, and now feel that
a pact will prevent a similar splitting of their vote.)
When asked whether the apparently near-term announcement
of the alliance signaled that the president might want
to call new elections, Harim Peiris, the president's
spokesman, said he did not think that she was of a mind
to do so soon. That said, he thought she might in the
future if she felt the GSL was growing increasingly
unpopular.


4. (C) VAGUE ON PEACE PROCESS: Confirming press
reports, contacts have told us that the MOU will
probably be quite vague as to peace process issues.
Peiris told us that the document would mention support
for the process and for a negotiated settlement of the
dispute in a general way. Noting the long-standing
differences between the two sides, however,
Fernandopoulle related that he understood the draft
would barely mention the terms "devolution" and
"federalism" as ways to solve the ethnic conflict.
(Note: The president and the PA/SLFP are basically open
to solutions involving devolution and federalism. It is
only a slight overstatement to say that the JVP is
violently opposed.) Fernandopoulle said the MOU would
be more concrete regarding economic issues, with the two
sides united in criticism of the GSL's reform plans.

5. (C) TAMIL CONCERNS: Tamils seem very worried about
the potential pact. Gajendran Ponnambalam, a Tamil
National Alliance MP, told us that he thought the
proposed accord would not be good for the peace process
because it represented an alliance of "Sinhalese
chauvinists." (Note: The JVP is a chauvinist party
without much doubt. Most SLFP MPs and the president are
relatively moderate on peace process issues, though
there is a minority in the party that makes anti-peace
process, pro-Sinhalese statements.) When asked about
the reaction of the Tamil Tigers to the possible
SLFP/JVP pact, Ponnambalam said he did not think the
group would react in an aggressive way. The Tigers,
however, would make it clear that they were not happy.


6. (C) COMMENT: If the accord is indeed concluded, it
will probably spark plenty of political reverberations.
The most important impact would probably be the
potentially negative reaction of the Tigers and other
Tamils, who will consider the president's close links
with the JVP a threat to the long-term viability of the
peace process. Another probable impact will be that
felt by the GSL, which only holds a slim majority in
Parliament and may feel vulnerable to a newly combined
opposition. END COMMENT.


7. (U) Minimize considered.

WILLS