PEACE PROCESS UPDATE: LTTE NEGOTIATOR SPEAKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 COLOMBO 000075

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, S/CT, INR/NESA; NSC FOR E.
MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/13
TAGS: PGOV PTER PINR CE NO LTTE
SUBJECT: PEACE PROCESS UPDATE: LTTE NEGOTIATOR SPEAKS
OUT; UN SYG ANNAN TO VISIT; FEDERALISM EXPLORED

Refs: (A) Colombo-SA/INS 01/13/03 fax

- (B) Colombo 52, and previous (NOTAL)

(U) CLASSIFIED BY LEWIS AMSELEM, DEPUTY CHIEF OF
MISSION. REASONS 1.5 (B,D).


1. (C) This update of Sri Lanka's peace process reviews
the following:

-- LTTE negotiator Balasingham speaks out

-- Norwegian Prime Minister responds to president's
charges

-- Kofi Annan to visit in February; Japanese Special
Envoy Akashi also on the way

-- Exploring federalism

--------------
LTTE NEGOTIATOR SPEAKS OUT
--------------


2. (SBU) Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) senior
negotiator Anton Balasingham has received widespread
press coverage in Sri Lanka of late. The coverage has
been generated by his remarks at the press conference
that took place after the completion of the fourth round
of talks last week and in two press interviews, one with
the BBC and one with a local paper. Overall,
Balasingham used the three occasions to emphasize the
LTTE's commitment to the ongoing peace process. On a
more negative note, he also went on to stress that the
LTTE would not consider disarming until much further
down the road. Highlights of Balasingham's comments
included:

-- BBC TV interview (telecast on January 7): During
this interview with BBC Sri Lanka correspondent Frances
Harrison, Balasingham underscored that he did not
believe that the war would return because "both parties
are seriously committed to peace." In response to a
question, he stressed that the Tigers had no intention
of disbanding the "Black Tiger" suicide squads at this
time, stating: "All LTTE units are now observing the
ceasefire, but they are also the bargaining power of the
Tamil people. We have to keep them to pressurize the
government to bring about a settlement. When this
situation is reached, then we will consider disarming
these units."

-- (After-the-talks) press conference (January 9): When
queried once again on the issue of disarmament,
Balasingham replied: "Some people are under the
impression that we are like the IRA or some other
organization which has a few weapons lying here or
there. That is wrong. The LTTE has a formidable
military machine, a conventional army that has fought
this war for 20 years...we will not disarm, until the
aspirations of the Tamil people are met. (Until this
happens) disarming would be suicidal." Balasingham went
on to deny that the Tigers were holding any Sri Lankan
military POWs or that there were any MIAs, stating
"Unfortunately, they (the Sri Lankan soldiers) all died
on the battlefield." He estimated that 25,000 GSL
soldiers were killed in the war along with 17,500 LTTE
cadre.

-- Interview in the SUNDAY LEADER (published
January 12): During this interview with editor Lasantha
Wickremetunge, Balasingham underscored that the LTTE
wanted to see progress made in solving the issue of the
Sri Lankan military's "high security zones" in Jaffna.
The LTTE was not demanding that the GSL withdraw from
all of these security zones, but it wanted them
relocated or reduced in size. In any case, the LTTE had
no intention to move heavy weapons into any areas that
were eventually vacated by the military. He asserted
that the military -- as opposed to Prime Minister
Wickremesinghe's government -- was being "rigid" on the
security zone matter. In response to a question, he hit
out at President Kumaratunga, asserting that the LTTE
could not work with her, remarking: "If she
(Kumaratunga) takes power (by regaining control of the
government),I don't think there will be any peace
negotiations because she is committed to war." (Note:
the text of this interview is contained in Ref A.)

3. (C) COMMENT: Although he is technically spokesman
of the LTTE (among many other titles),Balasingham --
befitting an organization that remains highly secretive
-- does not interact with the press all that much. His
latest comments, particularly those published in the
SUNDAY LEADER, were some of the most extensive a LTTE
official has made since the peace process began,
however. (Note: His appearance with LTTE leader V.
Prabhakaran at a press conference in April 2001 was also
a major media event.) In general via his comments,
Balasingham appeared to be trying to seem moderate and
to assure the south of the LTTE's commitment to peace.
That said, his obvious attempts to divide the south into
elements the LTTE can work with (e.g., the GSL) and
those it cannot work with (e.g., Kumaratunga/the
military) were a bit unsettling and probably too clever
by half. END COMMENT.

--------------
NORWEGIAN PM RESPONDS
--------------


4. (C) Norwegian Prime Minister Bondevik has responded
to President Kumaratunga's complaints about GoN
involvement in a recent incident involving the import of
radio equipment for the LTTE. (Note: On January 1,
Kumaratunga sent Bondevik a letter questioning the
Norwegian role in this matter, especially the
involvement of Ambassador Jon Westborg -- see Ref B.)
In a letter dated January 6 that received front-page
coverage in the local press, the Norwegian PM noted that
the GSL had already explained the circumstances
surrounding the import of the equipment and that the GoN
did not have anything else to add to this explanation.
(Note: PM Wickremesinghe recently sent Kumaratunga an
extensive letter explaining GSL involvement in the
matter, noting that the Norwegian embassy had only
gotten involved at the specific request of the GSL.)
Ambassador Westborg was open to briefing the president
on the matter if she wished, Bondevik noted. The letter
went on to praise Kumaratunga's involvement in
initiating and supporting the peace process. Asked
about the letter, Oddvar Laegried, DCM at the Norwegian
Embassy, told us that the letter was carefully
calibrated not to anger Kumaratunga and Norway hoped she
would put the matter behind her.


5. (C) COMMENT: It is possible that the controversy
over the radio equipment will come to a close with this
missive from Prime Minister Bondevik. The letter was
drafted with the utmost care and seemed to hit all the
right notes, especially in its salutes to Kumaratunga's
(rather large) ego. In the meantime, anti-peace process
elements -- and those who are merely skeptical like the
president -- seem to have wrung just about every last
bit of blood they can out of this matter. In the
process, they seem to have scored some points on the
government and the GoN -- but not too many. END
COMMENT.

--------------
UN SYG, GOJ SPECIAL ENVOY TO VISIT
--------------


6. (U) The Sri Lankan MFA has announced that UN
Secretary General Kofi Annan will visit Sri Lanka from

SIPDIS
February 26-27. According to UN sources, the focus of
the visit will be Sri Lanka's peace process, and ways to
address the humanitarian situation in the north and
east. While plans for the visit are still being put
together, it will center around meetings with GSL
officials in Colombo. It is also possible that a visit
to war-ravaged Jaffna will be arranged.

7. (SBU) In another visit related to the peace process,
Japan's Special Envoy for Sri Lankan peace process
humanitarian issues Yasushi Akashi plans to visit,
January 15-20. The primary reason for the visit,
according to Koji Yagi, a poloff at the Japanese
Embassy, is for Akashi to attend the "Sub-Committee on
Immediate Humanitarian and Rehabilitation Needs" (SIHRN)
meeting being held in the LTTE-controlled Wanni region.
(Note: Akashi is acting as principal advisor to the
sub-committee, which was formed at the second round of
GSL-LTTE talks in November.) According to press
reports, Akashi may meet with LTTE leader Prabhakaran
during his stop in the Wanni, but Yagi said he did not
think that Akashi would be participating in any such
meeting. Akashi is also planning to visit sites in
southern Sri Lanka. (Note: Akashi is scheduled to
meet Ambassador Wills on January 17.)


8. (C) COMMENT: Annan's visit will be the first by a
UN SYG since U Thant's in 1967. With the GSL's peace
initiative now over a year old, Annan clearly wants to
try to reinforce the process to the full extent
possible. It will be interesting to see who in the LTTE
he might meet with, if anyone. As for Akashi, as
mentioned in Ref B, Japan has been trying to play a more
important role in Sri Lanka's peace process for some
time. FM Kawaguchi's recent visit to Sri Lanka fit into
that mold, as does Akashi's involvement. END COMMENT.

--------------
EXPLORING FEDERALISM
--------------


9. (U) In an effort to increase understanding of
federalist models of government, a German NGO called
"PeaceTalk" has invited ten Sri Lankans on a ten-day
tour of Italy, Austria, Germany, and Belgium. (Note:
Mission is trying to find out more information about
this NGO.) Representatives of most major parties in the
south, including the governing United National Party and
the opposition People's Alliance, are reportedly slated
to participate in the study, as is the LTTE. The
radical, Sinhalese extremist Janantha Vimukthi Peramuna
(JVP) has reportedly turned down an invitation to
participate. Gajan Ponnambalam, a Tamil National
Alliance MP who plans to join the study tour, told us
that the primary focus of the trip would be ways to
apply federalist models to the Sri Lankan situation.


10. (SBU) COMMENT: Once extremely controversial,
federalism is now clearly a growth business in Sri
Lanka. Since the LTTE announced at the third round of
talks in December that it was willing to explore
federalist options, numerous NGOs have offered to work
with the two sides in developing ideas on this issue.
(Note: Essentially the issue under discussion is the
Sri Lankan constitution, which is unitary in structure,
and would need to be revamped or rewritten to allow some
sort of federalist structure to emerge.) The study tour
to Europe is part of this general educational effort, as
was a conference held in December in Switzerland
sponsored by a Swiss NGO. We also understand that at
the recently concluded fourth round of talks there were
many meetings on the margins on this topic, including
some involving the Forum of Federations, a Canadian NGO.
END COMMENT.


11. (U) Minimize considered.
WILLS