Displaced person returns to Sri Lanka's

C O N F I D E N T I A L COLOMBO 000593

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, PRM/ANE

LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL

E.O. 12958: DECL:
TAGS: PGOV PREF PHUM PTER CE KWMM
SUBJECT: Displaced person returns to Sri Lanka's
north/east continue to swell

Refs: Colombo 543, and previous

(U) Classified by Lewis Amselem, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The number of displaced persons
returning to Sri Lanka's north/east continues to swell
and now stands at 270,000. The returnees are Tamil; few
are Muslim. In other trends, many Tamils also appear to
be leaving the war-ravaged north/east in search of
economic opportunities in the south. The high number of
returnees seems to represent a vote of confidence in the
peace process. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) RETURNS SWELL: In its latest figures, UNHCR
has told us that the total number of Internally
Displaced Persons (IDPs) who have returned to their
points of origin in the north/east has swelled to over
270,000 as of the end of January. UNHCR reports that
35,000 additional returnees went back to their home
areas in the three-month time span between late 2002 and
January 2003. UNHCR estimates that the rate of return
will continue at a clip of about 10,000 a month for the
foreseeable future. Given the time-lag in its figures,
this means that as of April 2003 close to 300,000 IDPs
may have returned to their home areas since the start of
the peace process in December 2001.


3. (C) MUSLIMS STAY PUT: The vast majority of the
returnees continue to travel to the Jaffna Peninsula in
northern Sri Lanka and to points in the east. The
returnees are invariably Tamil. The number of Muslim
IDPs returning to their home areas is very, very low.
(Note: Explaining this phenomenon, M.I.M. Mohideen,
chairman of the Muslim Rights Organization (MRO),
recently released a statement asserting that Muslims
simply did not trust the Liberation Tigers of Tamil
Eelam, "LTTE." According to Mohideen, despite LTTE
entreaties, Muslims are not comfortable with the group
and do not plan to return to their homes in the north
soon.)


4. (SBU) MANY TAMILS GO SOUTH, TOO: In addition to the
high rate of returns by IDPs, there are also indications
that many Tamils are leaving the north/east in search of
education and employment in the south. Non-government
organizations (NGOs) focused on migration have noted
that the economic situation in the south remains much,
much better than that in the war-torn north/east. In
light of the reopening of many roads throughout the
country, Tamils can now easily move back-and-forth,
allowing many to try their luck in the south. (Note:
In the past, before the start of the peace process, it
was very difficult for Tamils to move around the country
due to the war and government security regulations.)
Many of the Tamils who go south wind up in Colombo,
where the Tamil community constitutes perhaps a third of
the population.


5. (C) COMMENT: The continued high rate of returns
seems to be a clear indication that Tamil IDPs have a
high degree of confidence in the current peace process.
That said, over 500,000 IDPs still remain in camps or
with families in the south, and it is not clear when the
bulk of these might go home (if ever). (Note: Mission
has not heard any reports that indicate that the
approximately 100,000 Sri Lankan Tamil refugees in India
plan to return home at any time soon.) END COMMENT.


6. (U) Minimize considered.

WILLS