TFIZ01: Maldives issues statement re Iraq;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000524

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, SA/PD, S/CT, DS/DSS/ITA,
DSERCC, INR/NESA, AND NEA/NGA

NSC FOR E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03-27-13
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS ECON ASEC PINR CE MV IZ
SUBJECT: TFIZ01: Maldives issues statement re Iraq;
Religious groups down on war; More rallies planned

Refs: (A) Colombo-SA/INS 03/26/03 e-mail

- (B) Colombo 512, and previous
- (C) Colombo 170 (all Notal)

(U) Classified by Lewis Amselem, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons: 1.5 (B, D).


1. (C) This update, focused on reaction to the war in
Iraq in Sri Lanka and the Maldives, reviews:

>> In its first public statement, the Maldivian
government says it is "very concerned" about the war

>> In Sri Lanka, religious groups issue statements
against the war

>> More anti-war rallies in the works

>> Spotlight on two major Sri Lankan opponents of the
war: Alavi Moulana and Baddegama Samitha

>> Local concerns sprout re potential economic problems
caused by war, as the GSL seeks to dispel them

(((Note: Latest media coverage is provided Septel.)))

=========================
Maldives Issues Statement
=========================


2. (U) The Maldivian government has issued its first
public statement re the Iraq conflict. Although only
posted on the GoRM's website on March 26, the statement
is dated March 21. It was issued in the name of
President Maumoon Gayoom. In its key political
reference, it states:

"The Maldives is very concerned over the grave dangers
to which the Muslim people of Iraq are being exposed by
the war. The government hopes that the military
operations would end very soon, and with minimal
destruction and injury to the brotherly people of Iraq.
The Maldives desires peace, stability, and security for
the region."


3. (U) The rest of the page-long statement reviews
various measures the government is taking in reaction to
the start of the war. These measures include forming a
government committee to monitor Gulf events, the
cancellation of parties and receptions by the GoRM, and
suspension of all overseas government travel unless
deemed essential. (Note: The complete text of the
statement was e-mailed to SA/INS in Ref A.)

============================
Religious Groups Down on War
============================


4. (SBU) In Sri Lanka, two religious groups have
recently issued statements against the war. Colombo's
Grand Mosque issued a statement on March 25, for
example, which emphatically condemned the war.
(Note: The Grand Mosque is the major mosque in Colombo
and the most important in the country.) The statement
asserted, in part, that "It is sad to note that the U.S.
administration has ignored the appeals made by heads of
state and religious leaders to further explore peaceful
means of disarming Iraq...It is not too late for the
United States to reconsider its decision."


5. (U) In the meantime, the National Christian Council
(NCC),an umbrella organization for Protestant churches
(Anglican, Presbyterian, Methodist),issued a statement
on March 26 which "deplored" the start of the war. The
NCC statement went on to comment: "The experiences we
have had in our own country strengthens our conviction
that dialogue and negotiation alone can evolve into
permanent and lasting resolution." (Note: In other
reaction, comments by local Roman Catholic Church
prelates have mirrored the anti-war perspective of Pope
John Paul II. Major Buddhist and Hindu leaders have
basically steered clear of commenting on the war, thus
far. See below, however, re anti-war role of Buddhist
monk and MP Baddegama Samitha.)

=================================
New Anti-War Rallies in the Works
=================================

6. (SBU) Thus far, anti-war demonstrations in Sri Lanka
have neither been frequent, nor particularly large.
Anti-war organizers, however, are trying again, and on
Friday, March 28, several rallies are in the works at
various sites. From what we have picked up, at least
two rallies are being planned in Colombo, including one
at Galle Face Green, a large sea front park down-the-
road from the embassy. Both rallies are slated to kick
off after Friday mid-day prayers, so that Muslims --
presumably energized by anti-war sermons -- can join in
right from the mosque. Various rallies are also planned
in Muslim-dominated areas in the Eastern Province (where
there are many radicalized Muslims due to the conflict
with the Tamil Tigers),in parts of the south, and north
of Colombo. The sponsorship of these rallies continues
to be pretty much evenly split among various Muslim
groups and the radical left Janantha Vimukthi Peramuna
(JVP).

========================
Two Key Anti-War Figures
========================


7. (C) While the anti-war effort in Sri Lanka has not
seemed to have taken off as of yet, two politicians are
playing major roles in organizing opposition, thus far.
The two, Alavi Moulana and Baddegama Samitha, are coming
to the anti-war effort from different angles. Moulana,
71, the Governor of the Western Province (where Colombo
is located) and a former People's Alliance (PA)
minister, is a major Muslim leader, who has been
canvassing the Muslim community for support against U.S.
policy in Iraq. A former trade unionist, Moulana is
also trying to tap into his union connections. In this
effort, Moulana -- who is believed to maintain many
connections in the Middle East -- has made some sharply
critical comments about the U.S.


8. (C) The other leader, Venerable Baddegama Samitha,
51, is a Buddhist monk and member of the PA, who was
elected to Parliament in the December 2001 general
election. (Note: Samitha is the first Buddhist monk
ever to sit in Parliament. He is a member, somewhat
bizarrely given his clerical status, of a small
Trotskyite faction of the PA.) Within the PA, Samitha
is a strongly pro-peace process voice, unlike some other
elements in the grouping. Re Iraq, however, Samitha has
taken a sharply anti-U.S. tack, personally leading some
anti-war demonstrations. When he is not politicking,
Samitha runs his own temple in the Galle area in the
south of the country.

=============================
Local Concerns re the Economy
=============================


9. (SBU) In other Iraq-related news, press articles and
contacts are increasingly mentioning worries that Sri
Lanka's economy could possibly be hurt by a long war.
These concerns revolve around fears that gasoline prices
might spike, that Sri Lankan workers in the Middle East
might lose their jobs, that tourism might tank, and that
tea sales might suffer. (Note: See Ref C, for a
detailed review of these concerns.) Thus far, the Sri
Lankan government has worked hard to dispel the
concerns. The GSL, for example, has underscored that it
has enough gas in reserve to handle needs if there is an
emergency. Moreover, the government has pointed out
that hardly any of the over 700,000 Sri Lankan workers
in the Middle East have had to come home and, thus,
remittances remain intact. While sales of tea are down
in the important Middle Eastern market, the government
believes that sales will rebound. Finally, tourism has
not seemed to suffer in any appreciable fashion.
=======
COMMENT
=======


10. (C) The Maldivian government's statement was not
particularly helpful, but not harmful either. In making
it, our guess is that the GoRM was reacting to its
public, which is reportedly largely anti-war (the
Maldives is 100 percent Muslim). Re Sri Lanka, our
assessment is that a wide swath of the populace is also
against the war, but the depth of concern is vague and
not very deep. Only among the Muslim minority have we
noticed anything approaching passion. That said,
although their efforts have barely managed to register,
so far, Muslims groups and the Sinhalese left appear
committed to trying to torque up their anti-war
campaign. END COMMENT.


11. (U) Minimize considered.

WILLS