Peace process update: More re sinking of

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 COLOMBO 000513

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, S/CT; NSC FOR E. MILLARD

LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3-26-13
TAGS: PGOV PTER PHUM PINS CE NO JA CH LTTE
SUBJECT: Peace process update: More re sinking of
Chinese fishing boat; Tamil leader takes on the LTTE

Refs: (A) FBIS Reston Va DTG 251820Z Mar 03

- (B) FBIS Reston Va DTG 251313Z Mar 03
- (C) Colombo 485
- (D) Colombo 381
- (E) Colombo 261

(U) Classified by Lewis Amselem, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b, d)


1. (C) This update of Sri Lanka's peace process reviews
the following:

>> Sinking of Chinese fishing boat still under
investigation, but Tigers look more-and-more like the
culprits

>> In brave but dangerous move, Tamil leader hits out at
the Tigers

>> Unconfirmed reports that the Tigers are killing
opponents

>> Alliance between major Opposition grouping and
radical JVP close, but no agreement yet on how to handle
peace process

>> Latest poll indicates strong public support for the
peace process

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More on Sinking of Chinese Boat
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2. (SBU) The Sri Lankan government and the peace process
monitors continue to investigate the March 20 attack on
a Chinese fishing trawler off the northeastern coast of
Sri Lanka. (Note: Seventeen crewmen, Chinese and Sri
Lankan, are believed to have died in the incident.
Ref C reviews the incident in additional detail.) The
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) organization has
been accused of perpetrating the attack, although the
group continues to deny any involvement. The Sri Lankan
government has stated that it has now recovered the
bodies of seven victims, and is continuing its search
operations for the rest who are missing and presumed
dead. In addition, the GSL has released a press
statement condemning the "unprovoked" attack (without
mentioning the LTTE) (Ref B). For its part, China --
per Ref A statement by the Chinese MFA -- continues to
demand a full-and-complete investigation into the
incident.


3. (C) In the meantime, the Norwegian-run Sri Lanka
Monitoring Mission (SLMM) expects to present its
findings re the incident to the GSL and LTTE on
March 28. A public statement by the SLMM will be
released two or three days later. When pressed, SLMM
Spokesman Teitor Torkelson told us that the monitors
could not confirm that the LTTE sunk the boat. That
said, based on the totality of the evidence, the SLMM
strongly believes the LTTE is responsible. He expects
that the SLMM's forthcoming press release will implicate
the LTTE without directly assigning blame.


4. (C) COMMENT: The sinking of the vessel remains
mysterious. All indications are that the LTTE did
indeed attack and sink the fishing trawler, but there is
no apparent rationale for the group doing so. The LTTE
has no bone to pick with China, and the group has not
attacked fishing boats, in general, in the past. As
reported in Ref C, however, the Sea Tigers (the LTTE's
"navy") appear to be on a hair trigger following recent
confrontations with the Sri Lankan navy and it is
possible they are lashing out. END COMMENT.

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Tamil Leader Hits Out at LTTE
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5. (C) In a courageous, but potentially dangerous move,
senior Tamil leader V. Anandasangaree has publicly hit
out at the LTTE. Anandasangaree, head of the Tamil
United Liberation Front (TULF) and a senior MP, stated
publicly on March 23 that he does not accept the LTTE's
claim to be "the sole representative of the Tamil
people." (Note: Anandasangaree has often voiced
similar opinions about the LTTE to Mission personnel
during private conversations in the past, but this is
the first time he has opened up in public.) He went on
to complain that the LTTE would not permit the TULF to
commemorate the life and works of its former leader, A.
Amirthalingam, who was assassinated by the LTTE in July
1989 in Colombo.


6. (C) In addition to Anandasangaree, a second TULF MP
from Jaffna, N. Raviraj, appears to be trying to
distance himself from the LTTE. Referring to a recent
announcement that there might be local elections in the
north and east (Ref A),Raviraj announced publicly on
March 24 that he might run independently of the Tamil
National Alliance (TNA) (apparently for the job of mayor
of Jaffna, a post which he formerly held). (Note: The
TNA is composed of four generally pro-LTTE Tamil
parties, including the TULF, which is its major
constituent element. Most members of the TNA are pro-
LTTE.) (Note: The Ambassador is scheduled to meet with
Raviraj next week and will get his take on the situation
at that time.)


7. (C) COMMENT: Anandasangaree's decision to criticize
the LTTE in public is a brave one. His comments may
have been prompted by the LTTE's recent decision not to
permit the reopening of Jaffna's Library (Ref E). This
decision upset Ananadasangaree and other Tamils, who had
worked long-and-hard to reopen the cultural landmark.
In any case, Anandasangaree's decision to go public is a
potentially dangerous one, as highlighted by what
happened to Amirthalingam (see above) and what may be
happening to other opponents of the LTTE (see below).
END COMMENT.

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LTTE Reportedly Kills Opponents
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8. (SBU) In other news regarding the LTTE and the Tamil
community-at-large, the past week has seen multiple
unconfirmed reports of the LTTE assassinating,
intimidating, and abducting mainly Tamil opponents. On
March 18, for example, a former soldier in the Sri
Lankan army of Tamil ethnicity was killed in Mount
Lavinia, a city located just south of Colombo. Despite
reports claiming that the killing was carried out by the
LTTE (which, as usual, denies involvement),there has
been no confirmation of who perpetrated the killing. In
the meantime, additional allegations involving the LTTE
have recently surfaced and include:

-- The LTTE allegedly assassinating numerous government
intelligence sources during the past year;

-- A recent attempt to deliver a letter bomb to a
military informant, which exploded and injured several
people (but not the intended victim);

-- Reported use of intimidation and violence to prevent
civilians from reporting LTTE-related incidents to the
SLMM; and,

-- Continued abduction/disappearances of LTTE opponents.


9. (C) COMMENT: Mission is looking into this uptick in
reports of egregious human rights violations by the
LTTE, especially the reports that they are killing
opponents. (Note: FYI. Anandasangaree, in a recent
conversation with the Ambassador, asserted that the LTTE
was involved in many killings of Tamil opponents.) Many
of the reports seem murky, however, and are difficult to
confirm. It is also not clear whether the government is
investigating the cases fully. (Note: Some suspect that
the government is not pressing the cases because it
feels that to do so might jeopardize the peace process,
or perhaps because Tamil witnesses do not want to
cooperate.) END COMMENT.

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PA and JVP near Alliance
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10. (C) The People's Alliance (PA),the main Opposition
grouping, and the radical Janantha Vimukthi Peramuna
(JVP) party continue their efforts to form an alliance.
As reported previously (see Ref D),the parties are
believed close to sealing a deal. According to
contacts, however, one of the key issues dividing the
two parties is how to deal with the peace process.
Compared with the PA, the JVP is much, much more anti-
peace process and does not want to endorse the PA plan
for constitutional devolution sent to Parliament by
President Kumaratunga, the PA leader, in August 2000.
(Note: The plan was not approved by Parliament at that
time.)


11. (C) COMMENT: It is understandable that the
historical differences between the two parties re the
peace process may create some difficulty in coming to a
compromise. The JVP has vociferously opposed any
agreement that devolves any power to the north and east.
The PA, on the other hand, has had a moderate approach
to the peace process for quite some time (although some
PA elements have taken a more critical stance of late).
While overcoming differences may be difficult,
indications are that the JVP and PA will find a way to
reach a compromise and forge an alliance in the coming
days, weeks, or months. END COMMENT.

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Public Supports Peace Process
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12. (C) The latest poll figures continue to show
overwhelming support for the peace process. The latest
edition of a poll by a well-respected local NGO (the
Center for Policy Alternatives) indicates that 83.7
percent of the population supports the peace process.
Since the signing of the ceasefire agreement in February
2002, support for the process has remained relatively
stable at between about 83 and 87 percent. Norwegian
facilitation of the talks also maintains a plurality of
support by a substantial margin (with neutral or unknown
response receiving substantial numbers). The SLMM,
however, is seen as being impartial and effective by
only a small plurality of the populace. According to
the poll's results, the Tamil-speaking community is much
more pro-SLMM than the majority Sinhalese community.


13. (C) COMMENT: Despite recent, strident criticism
from some in the south aimed at the peace process, the
latest poll confirms our sense that the public-at-large
continues to support the ceasefire and discussions with
the LTTE. The United National Party (UNP) government,
which has problems in such areas as the economy, is
clearly benefiting from this support, as it sees its
popular standing buoyed by its management of peace-
related issues. END COMMENT.


14. (U) Minimize considered.
WILLS