UNF government wins no-confidence vote with

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000280

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS; NSC FOR E. MILLARD

LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/19/13
TAGS: PGOV PHUM CE
SUBJECT: UNF government wins no-confidence vote with
ease; President drawing closer to radical party

Refs: (A) Colombo 274; (B) Colombo 175

(U) Classified by Ambassador E. Ashley Wills. Reasons
1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The UNF government won a February 18
no-confidence vote with ease. In other political
developments: President Kumaratunga continues to work
toward forming an alliance with the radical JVP party
and there are reports that she may call elections in the
provinces soon to test GSL support. Despite the
Opposition's best efforts, however, the government
appears to be in a relatively solid position at this
time. END SUMMARY.

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A Comfortable Win for the GSL
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2. (SBU) The United National Front (UNF) governing
coalition headed by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe
won a February 18 no-confidence vote with ease. The
vote in Parliament was 126-84 in favor of the
government. (Note: Parliament has 225 members, with
113 votes needed for a majority. Fourteen members were
absent from the February 18 vote and the Speaker, per
tradition, did not vote.) In addition to the support of
United National Party (UNP) MP's, all of the parties in
the governing coalition voted with the UNF, including
the tea estate Ceylon Worker's Congress (CWC) and the
Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC). The UNF also enjoyed
the support of MP's from the Tamil National Alliance
(TNA),a grouping that is not technically part of the
governing coalition, but tends to vote with it.


3. (U) In winning the February 18 motion by a margin of
42 votes, the government actually increased its margin
of victory from the last no-confidence motion held in
August 2002. In that vote, the government won by
127-92, a margin of 35 seats.

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PA-JVP Talks Continue
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4. (C) The setback in Parliament was bad news for the
Opposition. Working together, President Kumaratunga's
People's Alliance (PA) party and the radical Janantha
Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party had moved the no-
confidence motion on the basis that Defense Minister
Tilak Marapana was mismanaging the security forces. In
doing so, PA and JVP MP's took the floor of Parliament
on February 18 spouting hot invective toward the GSL's
peace initiative, charging that the government was
letting the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) push
it around. The effort clearly did not work: the PA/JVP
failed to wrench away any governing coalition partners,
including the SLMC, despite the fact that the Muslim
party has been lukewarm toward the peace process. In
addition, according to contacts, PA/JVP anti-peace
process comments pushed the Tamil parties to vote with
the GSL, overcoming any TNA doubts about the government
sparked by recent tensions in the north and east
(see Ref A).


5. (C) Despite the defeat, there is every indication
that President Kumaratunga will continue to work with
the JVP toward forming an alliance. In the past several
weeks, a number of meetings have been held between Sri
Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and JVP leaders. (Note: The
SLFP is the primary constituent element of the PA.) The
two sides have reportedly been working on a document
outlining a political program for a PA/JVP alliance. In
a February 18 press report, Anura Bandaranaike, a senior
PA MP and the president's brother, asserted that the
alliance could be finalized and announced in the March
timeframe. Queried about these reports, M.L.A.M.
Hizbullah, a Muslim MP aligned with the PA, told us that
the president has not yet briefed PA members about the
possibility of an alliance and he did not think any such
grouping would be finalized soon. (Note: In a late
January conversation with the Ambassador, Ronnie De Mel,
a senior PA MP, also downplayed talk of a PA/JVP linkup
-- see Ref B.)


6. (U) (((Note: In a recent press interview, Lakshman
Kadirgamar, a former Foreign Minister who is close to
Kumaratunga, was quoted as confirming that the PA was
working closely with the JVP, stating: "These alliances
are taking place all the time. All governments do this.
All oppositions do that...In that context, the JVP and
the SLFP are talking, seeking to overthrow the
government in a legitimate parliamentary exercise.
Obviously, the bottom line is no violence.")))


7. (C) (((Note: In other news involving cohabitation:
the president's office publicly released a letter that
Kumaratunga sent to the PM last week. The letter hit
out at the Prime Minister for allegedly hiring Japanese
Special Envoy Akashi to be an "international adviser"
for the government. The letter asserted that this
supposed action was contrary to Sri Lanka's sovereignty.
The letter also criticized Milinda Moragoda, a key
minister and associate of the PM, for allegedly being a
U.S. puppet based on some of his recent comments. In
our estimation, the charge re the GSL and Akashi is
baseless, and that involving Moragoda a canard. End
Note.)))

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Provincial Elections Soon?
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8. (C) Reports that the president might choose to call
new parliamentary elections soon have diminished in the
past several weeks. The general feeling is that the PA
does not want early national elections in the near-term
because it would probably lose seats. At this time,
however, it seems possible that the president may call
elections in the provinces soon to test GSL support.
(Note: Provincial elections are due to take place next
year, but the president can call them earlier.) The PA
controls most of the provincial councils and there has
been some talk that Kumaratunga might call elections in
some areas where she thinks her party may be strong,
such as the Southern Province. (Note: The PA has
traditionally been quite strong in the mainly Sinhalese
Buddhist south of the country. The PA, however, seems
disorganized in the Southern Province at this time, with
one of its leading MP's from the area recently
announcing that he would not support his party if
provincial elections were called.) (Note: Local
elections are also due in the north and east later this
year. These elections were postponed last year due to
LTTE pressure. The TNA would probably win most of the
races, with the UNP winning a handful. The PA and JVP
are not major factors in the north and east.)

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COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) The government appears to be in a relatively
solid position at this time. Although the peace process
has hit a rough patch and there are economic problems,
the government still seems popular. On the flip side,
despite its best efforts, the Opposition -- especially
the PA -- appears weak and virtually bereft of new
ideas. It is hard to imagine how linking up with the
Sinhalese chauvinist JVP could help the PA.
(Note: Most observers believe the PA did not benefit
from its late 2001 alliance with the JVP, for example.)
That said, Sri Lankan politics are notoriously fluid and
the government knows it cannot rest easy. END COMMENT.

10. (U) Minimize considered.

WILLS