Political Gleanings: President hits out at PM;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 COLOMBO 002191

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, S/CT, INR/NESA, DRL/CRA, DRL/IRF
DEPARTMENT PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC
NSC FOR E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12-29-13
TAGS: PGOV PTER PINS PHUM SOCI PINR ELTN CE
SUBJECT: Political Gleanings: President hits out at PM;
Questions re President's term in office; Funeral of monk

Refs: (A) FBIS Reston Va DTG 241448Z Dec 03
- (B) Colombo 2179, and previous

(U) Classified by Ambassador Jeffrey J. Lunstead.
Reasons 1.5 (b, d).


1. (C) This edition of Political Gleanings for
Sri Lanka reviews the following:

-- In more bad news for cohabitation, President
Kumaratunga lashes out at Prime Minister in interview.

-- Troubling questions arise as to the length of the
President's term in office.

-- Muslim leader Rauf Hakeem, who was unhurt, said not
to be the target of bomb attack in the east.

-- Despite concerns about violence, funeral of extremist
Buddhist monk takes place without much incident.

-- Three more church attacks amid continued discussion
of draft anti-conversion law.

-- In welcome news for peace process, train route to key
city in the east recommences.

============================================= =
President stokes Cohabitation Flames some more
============================================= =


2. (SBU) In a December 28 radio interview, President
Chandrika Kumaratunga lashed out at her bitter
cohabitation rival, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe.
She asserted that the PM, in an effort to shore up his
political support, had created an "imaginary
constitutional crisis" following her November 4 takeover
of three ministries (Defense, Interior, Mass
Communications). The PM was trying to "justify the
failure of the peace process" by attacking her, she
said, adding that the peace process had been "stalled"
for months in any case. Kumaratunga also called the
PM's claim that he could not continue managing the peace
process without full control of the Defense Ministry "a
joke." Wrapping up, she said she supported peace
negotiations with the Tamil Tigers, as neither she nor
her People's Alliance (PA) party wanted a return to war.


3. (C) COMMENT: There has been no reaction yet from
the Prime Minister's Office to the President's hard-
edged remarks. There is little doubt, however, that the
PM and his aides will not be pleased by her diatribe.
The PM's usual style is to remain above the fray, but
our guess is that one of his advisers will hit back at
her. The net impact of the President's remarks will
probably be to make a grim cohabitation situation even
grimmer. END COMMENT.

==========================================
Questions as to length of President's Term
==========================================


4. (SBU) A spate of recent press pieces has sparked
questions about the exact date when President
Kumaratunga's tenure in office ends. It has long been
assumed that her second and final term in office ends in
late 2005. Recent press articles, however, indicate
that the President and her advisers may believe that her
term in office ends in late 2006, one year later than
thought. The matter is confusing, but when the
President unexpectedly called for presidential elections
in 1999, it was a year prior to the end of her first
six-year term (1994-2000). After she won the December
1999 election, it was thought she was mandated another
six year term from that point on (a term that would end
in late 2005). Now, there are indications that she may
believe she is entitled to a full 12 years in office
from late 1994 on based on the fact that she won two
presidential elections. There are also reports that
Chief Justice Sarath Silva (a very close ally of the
President's) may have quietly sworn her in at some point
in 2000, with the aim of giving her legal cover to serve
until late 2006.


5. (C) COMMENT: This whole matter is very murky -- but
potentially highly problematic. It appears that the
President and her supporters may be sending up a trial
balloon to see what the reaction would be if she tried
to stay around until 2006. If that is the case, the
results are in: it would spark an immense controversy
and no doubt bedevil Sri Lankan politics for months on
end. The PM, for example, wants to run for president
and would not support any effort that would allow
Kumaratunga to push out her term in office. All that
said, given her close relationship with the Chief
Justice, it is possible she could make a legal argument
that would hold up in court. Norwegian Ambassador
Brattskar told the Ambassador that President Kumaratunga
had at one point mentioned to him that she might have
three years left in her term. END COMMENT.

==========================================
Muslim Minister not injured in Bomb Attack
==========================================


6. (SBU) On December 25, a small bomb was thrown at the
residence of Najmudeen (one name only),a local official
of the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) in Kalmunai, a
town in Ampara District in Sri Lanka's Eastern Province.
No one was injured in the attack, although Najmudeen's
car was heavily damaged. There are reports that Rauf
Hakeem, the SLMC leader and Minister of Ports and
Shipping, was visiting with Najmudeen at the time of the
attack, or may have been nearby. Police have told
Mission that they do not/not believe that the attack was
meant as an assassination attempt on Hakeem, but rather
may have involved a private grudge of some sort
involving Najmudeen. No one has been arrested in the
incident.


7. (C) COMMENT: Hakeem, a moderate, has been a strong
supporter of PM Wickremesinghe and the peace process,
and -- because of that -- has many political opponents
both inside and outside of the SLMC. Violence is
endemic in the troubled east, but it seems that he was
not the target of the bomb attack. If something
happened to Hakeem, it is unclear who would take over
the SLMC: Hakeem himself only recently took over
(shaky) control of the party following the death of its
founder, M.H.M. Ashraff, in a helicopter crash in late

2000. END COMMENT.

==================================
Funeral of Extremist Buddhist Monk
==================================


8. (SBU) Despite concerns about violence on the margins
of the December 24 funeral of radical Buddhist monk
Gangodawila Soma Thera (see Ref A),the event passed
with only minor incident. The hours-long cremation
ceremony in Colombo was relatively lightly attended,
perhaps because of the worries about violence. On the
margins of the ceremony, there was a small scuffle
between a mob of mourners and several people who were
allegedly distributing pamphlets critical of Soma Thera.
Police fired tear gas and some police vehicles were
damaged in the ensuing melee.


9. (C) COMMENT: Per Ref A, in the lead-up to the
funeral ceremony, there had been significant concern
that extremist Buddhists might use the occasion to
attack Christians and other minorities. That did not
happen and, for that, the President deserves great
credit for reacting to the concerns by ordering security
forces to closely monitor the situation. During the
funeral ceremony, however, (as was done before via a
poster campaign) a number of speakers -- without any
evidence whatsoever -- made comments that implicitly
blamed Christians for the death of Soma Thera. There is
little doubt that those accusations have helped to
further inflame the religious freedom situation in Sri
Lanka, which has been taking some hits of late (see
below). END COMMENT.

============================================= ======
More Church Attacks; Latest on Anti-Conversion Bill
============================================= ======


10. (SBU) Attacks on Christian churches have continued
in the past week. Two churches in the Meegoda area,
some 20 miles east of Colombo, were attacked on
December 28 by unknown assailants. The Our Lady of
Lourdes Roman Catholic church and the evangelical
Meegoda Christian Center both suffered damage in the
attacks, but there were no injuries. The Meegoda
attacks followed the December 20 burning of the Jesus
Lives Evangelical Ministry building in Kurunegala, a
town located roughly 60 miles northeast of Colombo.
Police are investigating all three incidents and there
have been no arrests as of yet.


11. (SBU) In a related development, the media are
quoting Hindu Affairs Minister T. Maheswaran as stating
that draft anti-conversion legislation will soon be
presented to Parliament for a vote. Per Ref B, the
draft bill, which prohibits the illegal conversion of
Hindus by "inducement" or other means, has been under
review in the Attorney General's office for several
months now. Buddhist Affairs Minister W.J.M.
Lokabandura has also been quoted in the press as stating
that the draft legislation will soon be brought before
Parliament.


12. (C) COMMENT: The latest attacks on churches add to
the long list of such incidents that have taken place in
recent months. As for Maheswaran's comments, Christian
Affairs Minister John Amaratunga recently indicated to
the DCM that the proposed anti-conversion legislation
was bottled up and there was little change of it moving
forward (see Ref B). That said, the proposed
legislation seems to enjoy significant support: In a
recent conversation with the Ambassador, for example,
Roman Catholic Archbishop Oswald Gomis -- in line with a
recent statement by local bishops -- expressed his
opposition to so-called "unethical conversions." Gomis'
comment may be a hint that the Catholic Church does not
plan to take a strong front-line stand against the draft
anti-conversion legislation. Along with similar
comments made by Hindu and Buddhist leaders, Gomis'
remarks tend to indicate that a wide swath of Sri
Lankans are uncomfortable with conversion efforts by
Evangelical Christians. END COMMENT.

=============================================
Train service to key Eastern City Recommences
=============================================


13. (U) Turning to some welcome news, rail service to
the eastern city of Batticaloa recommenced on
December 23. The service to Batticaloa had been
suspended for seven years following a Tamil Tiger-
instigated bomb attack on the tracks in 1996. With the
tacit agreement of the Tigers, the GSL began the long
process of rebuilding the damaged sections of the track
right after the conclusion of the 2002 ceasefire
agreement.


14. (C) COMMENT: Although the cohabitation impasse in
Colombo continues to work to postpone GSL-Tiger talks,
the peace process continues apace in an on-the-ground
sense. This is exemplified by the restarting of the
train service to Batticaloa and the Tigers' continued
cooperation in keeping key roads open, such as the "A-9"
route to Jaffna. Train service to Jaffna remains
defunct, however, and there are currently no plans to
begin the hugely expensive reconstruction of the largely
destroyed track. END COMMENT.


15. (U) Minimize considered.
LUNSTEAD