In meeting with Ambassador, PM considers

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001974

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS; NSC FOR E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11-17-13
TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS PHUM CE NO
SUBJECT: In meeting with Ambassador, PM considers
cohabitational committee for peace process

Refs: (A) Colombo 1971
- (B) Colombo 1970
- (C) Colombo 1963, and previous

(U) Classified by Ambassador Jeffrey J. Lunstead.
Reasons 1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Prime Minister Wickremesinghe told
Ambassador November 14 that he is considering proposing
to the President the establishment of a "Peace Cabinet"
or "Committee of Conciliation" to resolve the
cohabitation crisis. The President would have to return
three key Ministries, but would have a say, through the
Committee, in how peace negotiations were run. At
times, however, the PM seemed more drawn to fresh
elections as the way to establish his mandate. The PM
will meet the President again this week. The Ambassador
meets the President on Monday. END SUMMARY


2. (C) Prime Minister Wickremesinghe met with
Ambassador on the evening of November 14 to discuss the
ongoing cohabitation crisis. Milinda Moragoda, a key
advisor to the PM, was also present. The meeting
occurred after the PM's meeting with President
Kumaratunga (Ref C) and following the departure that
same day of the Norwegian team which stated Norway would
be unable to facilitate the peace process until the
political situation in the South was sorted out (Ref A).
The Ambassador briefed the PM on the Ambassador's
meeting that same day with Chief of Defense Staff
Balagalle (Ref B). In response to the PM's question,
Ambassador said that two things had struck him since
they had last met. First, the economic fallout of the
crisis was greater than we had realized, as we heard
every day of new opportunities lost or postponed because
of foreign investors' uncertainty about stability.
Second, we were struck by dislike we were hearing from
numerous sources for the option of dissolving Parliament
and calling for new elections. Many of our Sri Lankan
contacts believed elections would be messy and violent,
prolong the crisis, and result in a situation little
different from the current stalemate.


3. (C) The Prime Minister replied that he was mulling
over a new possibility. He continued to insist that the
President would have to hand back the three Ministries
she had taken over. (He noted that when they met, she
spoke only about the Defense Ministry, and he believed
the other two -- Interior and Mass Communication -- were
not really a problem.) He was considering proposing to
her the establishment of a "Peace Cabinet" which would
have representatives from both political fronts, and
which would advise on the peace process. This would
function outside of the normal Cabinet. The PM also
referred to this as a "Committee of Conciliation." As
he has before, the PM said that this would be patterned
after the "French model" of dealing with Defense in a
cohabitation setup.


4. (C) The PM wavered back and forth throughout the
discussion, at times seeming hopeful about the Committee
possibility, at other times saying that the President
was too erratic to work with, that even if they pulled
this off, it would probably break down, and that the
only answer was for him to receive a fresh mandate
through new Parliamentary elections. Ambassador noted
that under Sri Lanka's proportional representation
system, the PM's party would likely receive only a small
increase in seats, and the President would still be in
place with all of her constitutional powers. The PM
said this was so, but that the election would be seen as
a referendum on his leadership of the peace process. I
have promised a referendum later, he said, why not have
it now?


5. (C) The Prime Minister and Moragoda said the
situation could not be allowed to drag on indefinitely,
and that they thought it had to be resolved by the end
of November. The Tigers would be preoccupied right now
with their preparations for Heroes Day, but after that
they would become nervous. If nothing happened by the
end of November, the United National Party (UNP) would
have to press for fresh elections. The PM said that he
would meet with the President again either on Tuesday,
November 18 or Thursday, November 20. (Note: Press
reports on November 16 state that senior officials on
both sides are meeting in the meantime, with one item
for discussion the "Committee" proposal.)


6. (C) Ambassador told the PM that he would meet with
the President on Monday Nov 17. He told the PM that he
intended to tell the President that both sides needed to
work to resolve the crisis so that the peace process was
not harmed, that the economic impact of the crisis was
greater than had been expected, and that the issue
should not be allowed to drag on. The PM did not ask,
nor did Ambassador imply, that he would push for a
specific solution.


7. (C) It is notable that the President's office issued
a statement Friday evening which included a comment that
the President "also suggested to the Prime Minister that
a committee be appointed to ensure the smooth
coordination between the Defense authorities and the
Peace Secretariat." The President's statement was
issued in response to her meeting with the Norwegian
delegation and was clearly intended to defend against
criticism that she was responsible for the Norwegian
message that the peace process could not continue until
the political crisis was resolved.


8. (C) COMMENT: There may be a glimmer of hope here in
the proposal for some type of a Peace Cabinet/Committee
along the lines of the French model. However, the PM
clearly is still strongly drawn to idea of fresh
elections. We are increasingly of the mind that fresh
elections are a poor option. END COMMENT.


9. (U) Minimize considered.

LUNSTEAD