Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03COLOMBO1930
2003-11-07 07:18:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Colombo
Cable title:  

Sri Lanka Update: PM returns; President

Tags:  PGOV PINS PTER ASEC CASC CE LTTE 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 COLOMBO 001930 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR D, SA, SA/INS, SA/PD, S/CT; DS/DSS/ITA;
DS/IP/NEA/SA; NSC FOR E. MILLARD

PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11-07-13
TAGS: PGOV PINS PTER ASEC CASC CE LTTE
SUBJECT: Sri Lanka Update: PM returns; President
slated to give speech; Tigers again voice concerns

Refs: Colombo 1927, and previous

(U) Classified by Charge' d' Affaires James F.
Entwistle. Reasons 1.5 (b,d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 COLOMBO 001930

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR D, SA, SA/INS, SA/PD, S/CT; DS/DSS/ITA;
DS/IP/NEA/SA; NSC FOR E. MILLARD

PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11-07-13
TAGS: PGOV PINS PTER ASEC CASC CE LTTE
SUBJECT: Sri Lanka Update: PM returns; President
slated to give speech; Tigers again voice concerns

Refs: Colombo 1927, and previous

(U) Classified by Charge' d' Affaires James F.
Entwistle. Reasons 1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: To a rapturous welcome, Prime Minister
Ranil Wickremesinghe returned to Colombo from the U.S.
on the morning of November 7. Contacts have told
Mission that the UNP government and its allies are
continuing to closely consult on how to proceed in
response to the President's sudden November 4-5 actions.
For her part, President Kumaratunga is scheduled to give
another televised address to the country late
November 7. There are reports that her declaration of a
state of emergency may be withdrawn soon, but that is
not confirmed. In other developments, the radical JVP
party is rallying around the President even as the LTTE
continues to emit low volume, but clear signals of
discomfort about her moves. With dueling rallies under
way in the capital, RSO continues to monitor the
situation. Although the battle between the President
and the PM is shaping up to be a long war of attrition,
the next few days are bound to be crucial. END SUMMARY.

======================================
PM RETURNS AS UNP CONSIDERS NEXT STEPS
======================================


2. (SBU) To a rapturous welcome from his party, Prime
Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe returned to Colombo from
the U.S. on the morning of November 7. Surrounded by
MPs, other dignitaries, including saffron clad Buddhist
monks, and a huge crowd of supporters (estimated to be
over 10,000-strong),the PM gave a brief speech covered
live by state and independent television. In his brief
remarks, which took place just outside the airport
premises, he stated in forceful tones that the United
National Party (UNP) government's majority "remained
intact" and that Parliament needed to reconvene
"immediately" in order to attend to the "country's

urgent business." Continuing, Wickremesinghe said his
government had been "given a mandate by the people" and
that that mandate "would not be betrayed." Further, the
PM noted, the main task now was "to get the peace
process back on track."


3. (SBU) As of mid-day November 7, the PM was slowly
proceeding in a motorcade south from the airport area
toward Colombo. On the way, he is stopping at various
rallies organized by his many supporters in this area
north of Colombo, which is referred to as the "Christian
belt." The major MP in this area is John Amaratunga,
the sacked Interior Minister, who is considered the most
prominent Catholic politician in the country (he remains
the Minister for Christian Affairs). Once in Colombo,
the PM's supporters have several rallies planned. The
PM is then scheduled to return to Temple Trees, his
official residence in Colombo just down the street from
the Embassy.


4. (C) As they awaited the PM's return, UNP officials
have kept up a steady drumbeat of criticism of President
Kumaratunga and her November 4-5 actions (see Reftels).
In remarks made late November 6, G.L. Peiris, a key
government minister and the UNP spokesman, characterized
President Kumaratunga's actions as "undemocratic,
unconstitutional, and against the will of the people."
Further, Peiris called on the President to reconvene
Parliament immediately, as well as to reinstate the
sacked interior, defense, and mass communications
ministers. In his attacks on the President, Peiris
asserted that the country's economy was suffering
because of her moves. He then claimed that the U.S. had
been willing to sign a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with
the GSL during the PM's visit to Washington, but had
decided not to because of the tumult in Sri Lanka
sparked by the President's actions. When queried by the
press, Mission denied that a FTA was about to be signed.
Mission noted, however, that free trade remained a topic
of discussion between the U.S. and the GSL. (In a late
November 6 conversation with the Charge', Peiris
admitted his erroneous assertion about the FTA had been
a mistake uttered in the heat of the moment).


5. (SBU) In terms of next steps, contacts have told
Mission that the UNP and its allies are continuing to
closely consult on how to proceed. Some in the UNP want
to press forward against Kumaratunga by launching an
all-out program of rallies and demonstrations. There
are some concerns, however, that such an effort might
violate emergency regulations (see below for more on the
state of emergency). In the meantime, other contacts
have told us that the PM is keen to ensure that MPs who
are supporting the governing coalition now remain on
board and do not cross over suddenly to the President,
who is encouraging defections. There are few
indications that she is having any success in doing
this, thus far (see Reftels). As flagged by Peiris in
his remarks, one tack the UNP is taking is to demand the
immediate reconvening of Parliament, which was suspended
by act of the President on November 5. The UNP-
dominated Cabinet sent a letter to J.M. Perera, Speaker
of the Parliament and a senior UNP MP, requesting this.
The Speaker is likely to meet with the Prime Minister
and Cabinet officials late November 7.

================================
PRESIDENT SLATED TO GIVE ADDRESS
================================


6. (C) For her part, the President is reportedly
planning to give a televised address late November 7.
It is not clear what she will say new, or whether it
will simply be a rehash of her November 4 nationally
televised address (see Reftels). In addition, various
reports continue to trickle in indicating that the state
of emergency declared by the President may be lifted as
early as November 7, although this has yet to be
confirmed. On November 6, President Kumaratunga
convened a meeting of the National Security Council, the
first since her November 4 dismissal of the Defense
Minister. Service commanders from the Sri Lanka Army,
Navy and Air Force attended the meeting at which the
President discussed the current security situation. On
November 6, Kumaratunga also telephoned Indian Prime
Minister Vajpayee and reviewed her recent actions.
Taranjit Sandhu, the Indian High Commission political
counselor, told polchief that the call went well, with
Vajpayee underscoring the need for the President to work
with PM Wickremesinghe, and to maintain focus on the
peace process.

======================================
RADICAL PARTY RALLIES BEHIND PRESIDENT
======================================


7. (SBU) In other developments, the radical Marxist
Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) has come out strongly in
favor of the President's actions. On November 5, Tilvin
Silva, JVP General Secretary, stated that "President
Kumaratunga has not created a crisis, but has saved the
country from disaster." Silva also said that his party
"extended its full support" to her at this time. The
JVP has also stated that it will oppose the UNP-led
impeachment motion against Supreme Court Chief Justice
Sarath Silva, who is widely seen as a crony of the
President's by the UNP and neutral observers. In a
related development, a rally led by the "National
Patriotic Movement" -- a recently formed umbrella group
which includes the JVP and elements of the President's
Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) -- plans to hold a rally
in Colombo on November 7. The rally had originally been
planned to protest against the recently- released
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) counterproposals
on forming a north/east interim administration, it is
now focused on demonstrating in favor of the President's
actions.

===================================
TIGERS CONTINUE TO REACT NEGATIVELY
===================================


8. (C) While there has so far been little public
reaction from the LTTE, the pro-Tiger website "TamilNet"
has carried several reports critical of the President's
moves. On November 7, TamilNet carried a long article
quoting eastern Tiger military commander Karuna in which
this major LTTE official stated that President
Kumaratunga had "sabotaged the peace process at a
crucial time," and that "no one in the world expected
her to behave like this at this juncture." Asserting
that LTTE leader V. Prabakharan had "remained
judiciously silent," Karuna noted that "there is no need
for us to feel agitated over anything because we are
strong." In another, very unusual TamilNet article on
November 6, the death of an LTTE cadre in the eastern
town of Trincomalee was reported. The article stated
that the Tiger had been strangled, and that the body had
been found close to a Sri Lanka Army position. The
clear implication of the unusual piece was that Tiger
cadre were being set on by the Sri Lanka Army. There is
no independent confirmation of this.

=================================
DUELING DEMONSTRATIONS IN COLOMBO
=================================


9. (SBU) The situation in Colombo remains calm, despite
an increased police presence near the PM's official
residence. The police have said demonstrations will be
allowed to take place -- despite their prohibition in
the emergency regulations -- but that demonstrators will
most likely be prevented from nearing the President's
and Prime Minister's official residences. So far, there
have been no reports of any violence. Given all of the
dueling rallies under way, RSO will continue to monitor
the developing situation closely. Embassy employees and
the American community have been advised to use caution
around the city.

=======
COMMENT
=======


10. (C) As reviewed in Reftels, the battle between the
President and the PM is shaping up to be a long war of
attrition. The President has a solid edge in terms of
her overwhelming executive powers, which give her
control of the police and the military. The Prime
Minister, who appears to be gaining popularity since the
crisis broke out (see Reftels),seems to have "people
power" on his side. The next few days are bound to be
crucial as the UNP decides exactly how to proceed. The
PM is a very cautious man, but the emotions of his
supporters are clearly running high. In the meantime,
there are few signs that the President -- who can be
quite stubborn when she wants to be -- plans to back
down, although she may have initially miscalculated the
depth of the PM's support. As they focus on each other,
the LTTE must not be forgotten. Save for emitting some
low volume expressions of concern, the group has been
very quiet. That is not necessarily an indication that
the secretive group is accepting of what is happening in
the south, but, rather, it probably means the Tigers
have deep qualms and are reviewing their next steps.
END COMMENT.


11. (U) Minimize considered.

ENTWISTLE