Amid tentative signs that the President may

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001927

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR D, SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA, EUR/NB
NSC FOR E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11-06-13
TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR ASEC SOCI CE
SUBJECT: Amid tentative signs that the President may
have miscalculated, questions arise about her motives

Refs: (A) Colombo 1918 (E) Colombo 1902

- (B) Colombo 1917 (F) Colombo 1893
- (C) Colombo 1916 (G) Colombo 1867
- (D) Oslo 2293 (H) Colombo 1684

(U) Classified by Charge' d'Affaires James F. Entwistle.
Reasons 1.5 (b, d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: As the dust begins to settle after
President Kumaratunga's rapid-fire November 4-5 moves
against the UNP government, speculation abounds as to
what her true motives are. She and her supporters say
she only wants to protect Sri Lanka's "national
interest." There are strong indications, however, that
she is acting out of spite toward the PM because he is
getting all of the credit for the peace process.
Whatever the mix of reasons for her moves, there are
very tentative signs that the President may have
miscalculated, including: the PM's coalition seems to
be holding together; the international community is
expressing concern about the possible impact on the
peace process; and there are worries about the effect on
the economy. Despite the bad reviews, the President --
a fiercely proud person with a volatile personality --
does not appear set to back down anytime soon and she
may hit out some more. END SUMMARY.

--------------
Defending the President's Actions
--------------


2. (C) As the dust begins to settle after President
Kumaratunga's rapid-fire November 4-5 decisions to fire
ministers, suspend Parliament, and declare an emergency,
speculation abounds as to what her true motives are. In
answering this question, she and her supporters have
been unwavering that the President's only focus has been
to protect Sri Lanka's "national interest." Elaborating
on this theme in her nationally televised speech on
November 4, the President stated:

"The disturbing developments of the past few months
culminating in the events of the last days and the
ineffective steps taken by the administration to ensure
national security have led me to take the view that firm
and steadfast action is necessary to remedy this
situation."


3. (C) In comments made at a press conference on
November 5, Lakshman Kadirgamar, a key adviser, made a
similar claim that the president was only interested in
protecting Sri Lanka's "national security." The
President made the same point to the Charge' in their
meeting late November 5 (see Ref A). While their public
comments have been somewhat vague as to what exactly
they are protecting the country against, most observers
believe that the President and her supporters are
referring to concerns about the Liberation Tigers of
Tamil Eelam (LTTE). The President and her Sri Lanka
Freedom Party (SLFP) have made clear, for example, that
they are bitterly opposed to the Tigers' October 31
proposal regarding the possible formation of an interim
administration in the north/east (see Ref F). In
explaining her steps during her meeting with the
Charge', the President directly stated that she thought
that Prime Minister Wickremesinghe's government had
turned a "blind eye" to Tiger activities and
transgressions of the ceasefire accord. These views are
not new: the President and her supporters have been
skeptical about the PM's peace initiative virtually
since its inception in December 2001 and have on
numerous occasions made these views public (see Ref G).

--------------
Indications that it is Personal
--------------


4. (C) While underscoring these concerns about the
security situation, the President and her supporters
have vociferously denied that she might have any selfish
or narrowly partisan reasons for her actions. In her
November 4 speech, the president stated, for example:
"This is not an effort against any party or individual
but done only in the exercise of the duties and
responsibilities bestowed on me under the Constitution."
There are strong indications, however, that she is
acting out of spite toward the PM. The President has
had a bitter relationship with Prime Minister
Wickremesinghe for years. They do not get along for
many reasons: their personal chemistry is awful; they
are of different political persuasions; they each come
from political dynasties that have opposed each other
since even before the country gained independence in
1948, etc.


5. (C) Given their horrific relationship, many neutral
observers believe that the President is deeply jealous
that the PM is getting the credit for the peace process,
and, through her recent moves, is trying to put him in
his place. In choosing to take her actions at this
time, for example, the President may well have been
trying to embarrass the Prime Minister right before his
November 5 meeting with President Bush. The depth of
her anger toward the PM was also evident during her
meeting with the Ambassador in late September (see
Ref H) and in her November 5 meeting with the Charge'.
In both of these meetings, the President launched into
harangues about the PM's alleged perfidy over the years.
All of these indicators tend to flag that the
President's motives are very personal, in addition to
being policy-related as she and her supporters claim.

--------------
Tentative Signs of Miscalculation
--------------


6. (C) Whatever her true motives are, there are early
signs that the President may have miscalculated if she
thought that she would easily win in a confrontation
with the PM. Although the signs are still very
tentative, the domestic and international political
landscape for the President appears to be growing less
favorable to her position in the following ways:

-- A Resilient PM: Although initially caught flatfooted
by the President's moves, Prime Minister
Wickremesinghe's coalition government seems to be
holding together for now. As reported in Septel, the
PM's supporters have reportedly collected the signatures
of up to 130 MPs who state that they support his
government. This figure is significantly above the 113
MPs needed to form a majority in the 225-seat
Parliament. While there continue to be strong
indications that the President is working to encourage
defectors, there is little indication as of yet that she
has had any success. At the same time, based on most
reports, the Prime Minister, who was quite popular
before this crisis began, appears to be picking up
sympathy from the public over what is seen as the
President's overbearing ways. In addition, there are
signs the public is worried that the President may be
placing the nearly two-year old ceasefire at risk
through her actions. The PM's apparent reservoir of
popular strength bodes well if there are parliamentary
elections soon, which is where events appear to be
headed. Moreover, the Prime Minister has managed all of
this so far while being out of the country (he will be
returning from the U.S. the morning of November 7). It
is quite possible that when he returns to Sri Lanka on
November 7 he and his supporters may be able to take the
offensive against the President through press
conferences and rallies, etc.

-- Unfavorable International Climate: The President
also may not have counted on the generally unfavorable
international reaction she has faced. The U.S., the EU,
Japan, and India have all expressed concern over the
situation and the possible harm that might result to the
peace process. If she was planning to disrupt the PM's
meeting with President Bush, Kumaratunga also failed;
the Oval Office meeting went off without a hitch. The
statement by the Indian government, the regional
"superpower," was particularly damaging to Kumaratunga:
"We are surprised at the sudden political developments
in Sri Lanka. We hope that the situation does not
provoke a constitutional crisis, which would impact on
political stability and the ongoing peace process."

-- Economic Concerns: Though presidential spokesmen
have been vocal in trying to reassure the private sector
and investors, the President seems oblivious to the
notion that implementing a state of emergency on
national security grounds will have an impact on how Sri
Lanka is viewed by potential customers and investors.
Sri Lanka has worked hard for the past two years to
focus attention on the peace process and the absence of
war. It is possible that many potential sources of
capital will link the last 48 hours with pre-peace
process Sri Lanka, thus reinforcing perceptions of the
country as a volatile, violent, politically unstable
place.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) All in all, the President is earning some pretty
bad reviews for her actions. In taking the steps she
has and assessing the ramifications, however, it is
questionable whether the President is receiving accurate
information. Kumaratunga is in a bit of a cocoon, which
is partly due to very real security concerns and partly
of her own choosing. One aspect of this is that she is
not out and about meeting new people and seeing things
first hand. Rather, she appears highly reliant on a
small network of supporters who basically seem to tell
her only what she wants to hear. Her supporters, for
example, may be telling her that her party can win
elections, a proposition that most observers see as
doubtful. Armed with information that she thinks is
reliable, but may well be flawed, Kumaratunga -- a
fiercely proud person with a volatile personality --
does not appear set to back down anytime soon. In fact,
she may well hit out some more. END COMMENT.


8. (U) Minimize considered.

ENTWISTLE