Provoking political crisis, President fires

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001902

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR D, SA, SA/INS, S/CT, DS/DSS/ITA,
DS/IP/NEA/SA; NSC FOR E. MILLARD

PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11-04-13
TAGS: PGOV PINS PREL ASEC MOPS CASC CE NO LTTE
SUBJECT: Provoking political crisis, President fires
three key ministers and suspends Parliament

Refs: (A) Colombo-Ops Center 11/04/2003 telecons

- (B) Colombo 1893, and previous

(U) Classified by Charge' d'Affaires James F. Entwistle.
Reasons 1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a sudden move, President
Kumaratunga has fired the ministers of defense,
interior, and mass communications citing concerns
over the "deterioration of the security situation."
Late in the day, the President also suspended Parliament
until November 19. The PM is in Washington and his
office just sent us a statement strongly opposing her
moves. Colombo appears quiet as of late November 4.
The President's action highlights her volatility and
sets the table for a serious political crisis with
unknown implications for the peace process. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) PRESIDENT FIRES MINISTERS: In a sudden
announcement made mid-day November 4 while Prime
Minister Wickremesinghe was in Washington, President
Kumaratunga sacked the ministers of defense, interior,
and mass communications. The President also fired the
secretaries (second-in-commands) in the ministries of

SIPDIS
defense and mass communications, but spared the
secretary of the interior ministry. In a conversation

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with the Charge', Harim Peiris, press spokesman for the
President, confirmed reports that the President would
personally take over the three ministerial portfolios
left vacant by the firings. Peiris, who has been named
by the President to be the new Secretary in the Mass
Communications Ministry, added that the ministers in
question could retain other portfolios that they had
had, e.g., John Amaratunga of the Interior Ministry was
still the Minister of Christian Affairs.


3. (C) SUSPENSION OF PARLIAMENT: Late in the day, the
President also suspended Parliament until November 19.
Harim Peiris told the Charge' that rumors that the
President planned to declare a "State of Emergency" were
not true.


4. (C) PRESIDENT'S RATIONALE VAGUE: The President's
rationale for the sudden firing of the ministers was
vague. In a brief written statement announcing her
move, the President's Office commented: "This step has
been taken after careful consideration, in order to
prevent further deterioration of the security situation
in the country. The reasons for this action will be
made known to the public in due course." Dr. Sarath
Amunugama, a senior MP in the President's People
Alliance (PA) party, told Pol FSN that the President
will issue a more detailed statement and perhaps go on
television late November 4 to explain her move. We
later heard that she might make a statement as late as
November 5.


5. (C) PM'S STATEMENT: The UNP government appears to
have been caught completely off guard by the President's
sudden move, although there has been speculation that
the President might "try something" in conjunction with
the mid-November budget debate in Parliament (see Ref
B). For much of the day, there was no reaction by the
government to her move. Late November 4, however,
Mission received the following statement on official
stationery in the name of Prime Minister Wickremesinghe,
who is in Washington, rejecting the President's move:

Begin text:

Prime Minister's Office

Whilst being out of the country on an important visit to
the United States, a co-chair of the donor community, in
furtherance of Sri Lanka's peace process and economic
development, I have learnt that the President, Her
Excellency Chandrika Kumaratunaga has precipitated a
national crisis in an attempt to subvert the mandate
given to my government by the people on December 5, 2001
and reinforced in March 2002 at the local authority
elections.

Your government will not be deviated from the mandate
given it by the people to pursue the path of peace,
security and economic prosperity due to the
irresponsible and precipitous actions of the President
aimed at plunging the country into chaos and anarchy.

I pledge to you the people, your government will not
allow this desperate and irresponsible attempt to
undermine the peace process and economic prosperity of
the people to succeed.

I remain resolute in implementing the mandate of the
people for peace, democracy and prosperity with the
fullest support and continued confidence of the
international community.

It is blatantly obvious that these opportunistic actions
are timed to deprive the people of the economic and
social benefits that they are on the verge of reaping as
a result of the solid foundations laid by your
government over the last two years.

Be rest assured I will continue my mission for the
people undeterred and conclude my crucial program in
Washington D.C., including the meeting with president
George W. Bush, which is part of the ongoing process of
consolidating the peace, unity and economic prosperity
of all our people.

I therefore call upon all of you, the people, the armed
forces, police and public service to remain calm and
vigilant in the face of this deliberate attempt of
endanger the peace process which we will together
overcome.

04th November 2003

End text.


6. (C) OBSERVERS PREDICT "COHABITATION WARFARE": In
discussions with polchief, two well-informed observers
of the local political scene said they thought the
President probably has the right to fire the ministers
per the Sri Lankan Constitution. Kethesh Loganathan, an
analyst at the Center for Policy Alternatives (CPA),a
local think-tank, said the Constitution is written in
such a way that almost all executive powers reside in
the hands of the presidency, including membership in the
Cabinet. In any case, he noted, the President would
probably win if the issue is brought to the courts
because the Supreme Court and especially Chief Justice
Sarath Silva are allies of the PA and would probably
back her. All that said, Loganathan predicted that the
President's action would spark "bitter cohabitation
warfare" because "the UNP will not take this lying
down." Jehan Perera, the media director at the National
Peace Council, another local think-tank, agreed,
remarking that the UNP might be so angry as to take the
matter to the streets.


7. (SBU) COLOMBO QUIET: Colombo appears quiet and
normal as of late November 4. RSO continues to monitor
the situation. Reportedly on the orders of the
President, the military has deployed around the
headquarters of the Sri Lanka Broadcasting Corporation
(SLBC) and the government's printing press. We see no
need for a change to our consular travel advisory at
this point. The DATT is in touch with military
counterparts regarding the implications of the defense
ministry changes on a number of U.S. military
cooperation activities under way at the moment.


8. (C) COMMENT: The President's action highlights her
increasing volatility. As reported (see Ref B),her
recent track record has involved lashing out routinely
at the PM and other targets of her displeasure. While
her previous outbursts were mere darts aimed at the GSL,
this latest step, unfortunately, sets the table for a
serious political crisis and seems timed to ensure
maximum embarrassment for the PM in Washington on the
eve of his Oval Office meeting. It is not clear where
the epicenter of the crisis will be, but it seems that
the UNP might well take steps to try to impeach the
President and perhaps the Chief Justice (when Parliament
comes back into session). The UNP also appears to have
a significant amount of popular support due to its peace
process initiative and it could well bring out its
supporters in protest. Given the swirl of events, fresh
elections are also possible. The PM's statement above
indicates that his government plans to fight back hard.


9. (C) COMMENT (Continued): Implications for the peace
process and the planned restart of talks focused on the
Tigers' just released counterproposals are unknown. For
their part, the Tigers are very aware of what is
happening: their website, "TamilNet," is posting
regular updates on the situation in Colombo. In the
past, the group has cited concerns about the situation
in the south as a reason for not moving forward along
the peace track. END COMMENT.


10. (U) Minimize considered.

ENTWISTLE