Enthusiastic local reaction to the

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001858

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, S/CT, SA/PD; NSC FOR

E. MILLARD

DEPARTMENT PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10-28-13
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER MARR ETRD CE IN
SUBJECT: Enthusiastic local reaction to the
Prime Minister's recent visit to India

Refs: (A) New Delhi 5921

- (B) Colombo 1853, and previous

(U) Classified by Charge' d'Affaires James F. Entwistle.
Reasons 1.5 (b,d).

SUMMARY
=======

1. (C) Local reaction to Prime Minister
Wickremesinghe's recent visit to India has been
enthusiastic. Press coverage trumpeted the visit as
signaling that India had decided to back the GSL and its
peace initiative fully. Contacts also stressed that the
visit had sent a strong message of support to the south.
The Indian polcouns said he thought the visit had hit
the right notes, but warned that too much should not be
read into it. While the local reaction was overblown,
our sense is that the visit served to buck up the peace
process at a critical moment. END SUMMARY.

================================
Sri Lanka Gushes over PM's Visit
================================


2. (SBU) Local reaction to Prime Minister
Wickremesinghe's October 19-22 visit to India has been
enthusiastic. Press coverage trumpeted the visit as
signaling that India had finally decided to back the Sri
Lankan government and its peace initiative fully.
Gushing headlines on the visit in English-language
papers focused mainly on its defense and economic
cooperation aspects (see Ref A),and included:

-- "The Security Umbrella Unfurls"

-- "India to the Defense"

-- "India's New Regional Security Umbrella Plans"

-- "Making Lanka the Gateway to India"

-- "Enter India to Usher in Real Peace"

==========================================
Contacts: "Visit Helped Process in South"
==========================================


3. (C) In more restrained tones than the press
coverage, contacts stressed that the visit had sent a
strong message of support to the Sinhalese south from
India, the major regional power. Reaction included:

-- Jehan Perera, media director for the National Peace
Council, a local think-tank, told poloff on October 28
that he thought the south was "very reassured" by the
vocal support that India had given to the peace process.
Perera noted that he felt this support was a signal on
the part of the GoI that the peace process was now at a
stage where India could safely re-engage in closer ties
with Sri Lanka. This, in turn, was a sign that India
was finally getting over the failure of the Indian
Peacekeeping Force (IPKF) and Rajiv Gandhi's
assassination by the Tigers.

-- Rohan Edirisinghe, an analyst with the Center for
Policy Alternatives, another local think-tank, agreed
that the positive vibrations emanating from the PM's
visit had "definitely" helped the peace process. India
had made clear to Sri Lankans that it was "very
supportive" of the peace process and this message was
"very reassuring to the south." Edirisinghe noted that
the visit -- coming as it did on the eve of the
unveiling of the Tigers' response regarding power-
sharing in the north/east -- was well-timed.

-- M.L.A.M Hizbullah, a senior Opposition MP with the
Muslim National Unity Alliance, said he thought the
visit was definitely an indication that India wanted
closer ties with the GSL after years of maintaining an
arms-length relationship. As also touched on by
Edirisinghe, Hizbullah went on to state that the timing
of the Indian support had helped the PM's standing in
the south at the key moment just before the Tigers
issued their counterproposals, which were potentially
highly combustible in a political sense.

===========================================
Indian Polcouns: No Shift in Policy by GoI
===========================================


4. (C) In an October 28 discussion with polchief,
Taranjit Sandhu, the Indian High Commission polcouns,
said he thought that Prime Minister Wickremesinghe's
visit had been constructive and "made for good
pictures." In making this point, he stressed that:
"All the key meetings -- with Vajpayee, Advani, Gandhi
-- had gone smoothly, with no down notes." Sandhu added
that the two countries' joint announcement that they
would proceed with plans to expand the bilateral free
trade agreement and enhance defense cooperation had
indicated the existence of a "robust, dynamic"
relationship. Since the United National Party (UNP) had
taken over power in December 2001, the GoI felt that it
had a developed solid rapport with both PM
Wickremesinghe and key Minister Milinda Moragoda. The
success of the PM's recent visit was confirmation that
"this chemistry continued to work."


5. (C) All that said, Sandhu emphasized that he thought
the local reaction had gone too far and that too much
should not be read into the visit. Sandhu stated: "I
know that there is a bit of exuberance in Sri Lanka, but
India has not changed its longtime substantive
positioning regarding the ethnic conflict." India, he
said, would continue to support the GSL's peace
initiative and urge ethnic reconciliation in Sri Lanka,
but it still had no plans to involve itself directly in
the process. Moreover, despite much local press
speculation, he noted that India had no plans to help
the Sri Lankan government "bottle up" the LTTE. On this
point, Sandhu underlined that enhanced defense
cooperation did not mean that there would be any sort of
"mutual defense treaty" between the two countries.
India also had "absolutely no plans to send armed forces
to Sri Lanka" despite calls by some Sinhalese extremists
for such intervention.

=======
COMMENT
=======


6. (C) As Sandhu noted, the local reaction to the visit
was overblown. Sri Lankans clearly wanted to receive a
positive signal from India and they magnified the visit
to the full extent. Our sense, however, is that the
visit indeed was important in that it served to buck up
the peace process at a very critical moment. The LTTE's
counterproposals regarding the north/east -- which are
due to be issued in the next several days -- are bound
to be very controversial to some in the south. In light
of the probable turbulence, the GSL needs all the help
it can get from the international community -- and the
PM's visit to India was a sign that such support is
there. At the same time, the LTTE was sent a clear
message that India is watching the process closely.
What the volatile Tigers made of that message remains
unclear, but the group has in the past murmured semi-
threateningly about the GSL's trying to create an
"international safety net." Of course, the GoI warrant
for LTTE leader V. Prabakharan's arrest for the murder
of Rajiv Gandhi remains a core issue in how the Tigers
view New Delhi. END COMMENT.


7. (U) Minimize considered.

ENTWISTLE