Close adviser to president downplays talk of

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000175

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA; NSC FOR E. MILLARD

LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/13
TAGS: PGOV PTER PINR CE LTTE
SUBJECT: Close adviser to president downplays talk of
elections and linkup with radical party

Refs: (A) FBIS Reston Va DTG 300241Z Jan 03

- (B) FBIS Reston Va DTG 291012Z Jan 03
- (C) Colombo 170, and previous

(U) Classified by Ambassador E. Ashley Wills. Reasons
1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Ambassador had a very interesting
conversation on January 29 with Ronnie De Mel, a close
adviser to President Kumaratunga and a senior MP in her
People's Alliance (PA) party. De Mel downplayed recent
reports that the president was angling for early
parliamentary elections. Despite reports, he also did
not think that a possible PA linkup with the radical JVP
party had gone beyond unofficial discussions. De Mel is
a sober, longtime Mission contact, and his comments
indicate that in spite of all the smoke re various
political machinations there is not much fire -- at
least for the moment. END SUMMARY.

==================
Dinner with De Mel
==================


2. (SBU) The Ambassador had dinner at the residence of
Ronnie De Mel on January 29. De Mel, 77, is a close
adviser to the president and a senior MP in her PA party
(his wife, Mallika, is also a PA MP). De Mel's
residence, a fusion of Sri Lankan and "bungalow" design,
was quite elegant. He also had a lovely -- and very
pricey collection of about 20 colorful, abstract
paintings by George Keyt, a well-known Sri Lankan
artist.


3. (C) De Mel also has a colorful past, almost
Churchillian in all of its twists-and-turns. He was
originally a member of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party
(SLFP),joining the party in the 1960s when it was
headed by then-Prime Minister Sirimavo Bandaranaike.
After falling out with the irascible Bandaranaike, De
Mel defected to the United National Party (UNP) in the
1970s. A close associate of President J.R. Jayewardene,
he served as finance minister for the UNP government in
the late 1970s and 1980s. He left the UNP government in
the late 1980s as President Premadasa took the reigns of
power. Premadasa was so angry with this that De Mel
felt obliged to flee Sri Lanka and go into exile for
several years. (Note: Discussing his break with
Premadasa, De Mel told the Ambassador that he was sick
and tired of him, particularly Premadasa's clear
willingness to use violence against political
opponents.) After Premadasa was killed in a bomb
attack carried out by the Tigers in 1993, De Mel
rejoined the UNP only to crossover to the PA in 1999.
He served Kumaratunga's government as a senior minister
until the PA lost the December 2001 election.

==============================
Doubts that Elections are Nigh
==============================


4. (C) Ambassador Wills asked De Mel about the recent
flurry of press reports citing the president and the
government as freely discussing the possibility of new
parliamentary elections. (Note: Per Refs A-B,
Kumaratunga was recently quoted as stating that she was
unhappy with the government, and was ready to dissolve
Parliament and call elections. In response, UNP
Minister G.L. Peiris said the government was ready for
elections if they were called.) De Mel said he
seriously doubted that the president had any plans to
call new elections soon. She had not briefed PA MPs on
any plans of that sort. He noted that he thought that
Kumaratunga was mercurial in temperament, so anything
might happen, but he just did not think she was readying
plans for elections at this point.

========================
Reports of PA-JVP Linkup
========================

5. (C) The Ambassador also asked about the consistent
drip of reports that the president and her PA party may
be considering some sort of alliance with the Sinhalese
extremist Janantha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party.
(Note: Per Ref C, various, vague reports are
circulating that the PA and JVP are discussing a linkup
in what would be a reprise of the formal alliance they
shared in late 2001.) De Mel again downplayed the
reports. He remarked that any contacts that the PA has
had with the JVP are "unofficial" and PA MPs as a group
have not approved them. (Note: The PA has a party rule
that MPs and other party officials must approve formal
efforts to reach out to other parties.) In his
estimation, there might be some in the PA that wanted
such a link, but he did not see them getting their way
at any time soon.

====================
Re the Peace Process
====================


6. (C) Queried about the status of the peace process,
De Mel commented that he hoped that it would succeed and
he generally supported the government's efforts. He
said he had real doubts about the Tamil Tigers and their
intentions, however. The Tigers have come part of the
way, but they still have a very long way to go before
they could be trusted and accepted by most Sri Lankans.
It was not clear whether the Tigers were flexible enough
to make the necessary changes, but he doubted they were.


7. (C) In a parenthetical comment, De Mel related that
he doubted the government had any chance of receiving
the two-thirds support in Parliament needed to approve
the constitutional aspects of any final settlement with
the LTTE. About 25 of the 80 or so PA MPs were "center
right" and had been willing to consider working with the
government, he noted. (Note: De Mel counted himself in
this group.) The government had "botched" cooperation
with this group, however, due to its poor handling of
the proposed constitutional amendment curbing executive
powers last year. (Note: In October 2002, the Supreme
Court essentially threw out the government's proposal --
See Ref C.)

=======
On Iraq
=======


8. (C) In a brief colloquy re the Iraq situation, De
Mel said he doubted that there would be too many anti-
U.S. disturbances in Sri Lanka should there be a war.
He advised, however, that if war did take place it would
be wise for U.S. officials to avoid the east for awhile.
(Note: Sri Lanka's Eastern Province has a large
population of Muslims, including some extremists. See
Ref C re the latest on Sri Lankan reaction to the Iraq
situation.)

=======
COMMENT
=======


9. (C) De Mel is a sober, widely respected, and
longtime Mission contact. (Note: Some of the material
in our bio-file on him goes back to the early 1960s.)
His comments indicate that in spite of all the smoke re
various political machinations there is not much fire.
That said, "cohabitation" relations remain strained and
-- as De Mel noted -- Kumaratunga is mercurial. Given
these unsteady variables, there remains the possibility
that Sri Lanka could wake up one fine morning and find
out that it is headed toward elections -- or that the PA
has again aligned itself with the extremist JVP -- or
both. END COMMENT.


10. (U) Minimize considered.

WILLS