Peace process update: Tigers set to meet in

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001706

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, S/CT; NSC FOR E. MILLARD

DEPARTMENT PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10-01-13
TAGS: PGOV PTER PINS ASEC CE NO EI LTTE
SUBJECT: Peace process update: Tigers set to meet in
Dublin; Monitors and Tigers hold high-level meeting

Refs: Colombo 1684, and previous

(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In the latest peace process news,
Tiger officials are set to meet in Dublin to discuss the
group's response to the GSL's north/east administration
proposal. The Tigers also recently held a high-level
meeting with the Norwegian-led ceasefire monitoring
mission to discuss ways to improve cooperation. In
other developments, the radical JVP party is leading
efforts to torque up opposition to the peace process via
a program of rallies and marches. At this point, the
peace process is in a wait-and-see mode, with all eyes
on the Tigers' response to the GSL proposal. END
SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) MEETING IN DUBLIN: In the latest peace
process news, Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)
officials are set to meet in Dublin to discuss the
group's response to the Sri Lankan government's
north/east administration proposal. The LTTE delegation
reportedly will be led by LTTE Political Wing Chief S.P.
Thamilchelvam, and will include Eastern Province
military commander Karuna and LTTE Peace Secretariat
Chief S. Pulithevan. Tamil supporters of the group who
live outside of Sri Lanka are also slated to join the
meeting. The actual dates for the meeting have been
pushed back somewhat from the original late September
timeframe, but the discussions now seem set to start on
October 5. Some LTTE officials have reportedly already
left Sri Lanka bound for Ireland, while others,
including Thamilchelvam and Karuna, reportedly will
leave on October 3. The Norwegian government
facilitators appear to be the chief sponsors of the
meeting, although the Norwegian embassy here will not
confirm this. The Irish government's role, if any, is
not known. Among other groups invited to address the
meeting, the "Forum of Federations," a Canadian
organization, will reportedly make a presentation on
federalism and constitutional devolution options.


3. (C) The Dublin meeting follows closely on the heels
of a similar meeting held in Paris last month at which
the Tigers fine-tuned their counter-proposals to the
government's proposal on the north/east. Based on what
Mission has heard from the Norwegian facilitators (see
Reftels),the central purpose of the Dublin meeting is
for the LTTE to review further its draft counter-
proposals before presenting them to the Sri Lankan
government via Norway's good offices later this month.
If things go smoothly, GSL-LTTE talks could start up
again by the November timeframe.


4. (SBU) MONITORS MEET WITH LTTE: In other peace
process developments, the Norwegian-run Sri Lanka
Monitoring Mission (SLMM) held a high-level meeting with
the Tigers in the LTTE-controlled town of Kilinochchi in
north-central Sri Lanka on September 28. The large
meeting was attended by the head of the SLMM, Tryggve
Tellefsen, his deputy, Hagrup Haukland, and SLMM
district heads for the north/east. On the Tiger side,
Political Chief Thamilchelvam and the LTTE's district-
level political chiefs for the north/east were present.


5. (C) When asked about the meeting, SLMM spokeswoman
Agnes Bragadottir told poloff October 1 that it focused
on ways that the LTTE and SLMM could cooperate in a more
effective manner. Bragadottir said the SLMM viewed the
results of the meeting as "quite positive and
constructive" in that the LTTE promised to work more
closely with the SLMM. The LTTE, for example, agreed to
hold regular high-level and local-level meetings with
the monitors. Regarding specific issues, however,
Bragadottir indicated that the LTTE did not commit in
any way to vacating its unauthorized "Wan Ela" military
camp in Trincomalee District. Despite warnings from the
SLMM that doing so is "provocative," the group also did
not commit to stopping its practice of raising its flag
at LTTE-sponsored ceremonies that take place in
government-controlled areas.


6. (U) As for the LTTE's reaction to the September 28
meeting, "TamilNet," the pro-Tiger website, reported
that "there was a frank exchange over several crucial
matters," but did not elaborate much further than that.
TamilNet's coverage also included a montage of photos of
the meeting.


7. (SBU) JVP TRIES TO STOKE OPPOSITION TO PROCESS:
Turning to the situation in southern Sri Lanka, the
radical Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party has been
intensifying its anti-peace process activities. The
group, for example, is the main sponsor of a "Kandy to
Colombo" protest march taking place September 27 -
October 1. Thus far, the march has been peaceful,
though it has tied up traffic on the important Kandy-
Colombo road. The march is set to culminate late
October 1 with a large rally in Colombo. The latest
march and rally are a follow-up to the JVP's "Galle to
Colombo" march, which took place in late August.


8. (SBU) As part of its anti-peace process agitation
campaign, the JVP also recently took the lead role in
forming a new group called the "Patriotic National
Movement" (PNM). The PNM is a loose umbrella
organization made up of the JVP, and various Sinhalese
extremist Buddhist monks and others opposed to the
direction of the peace process and the Norwegian
facilitation effort. Some members of President
Kumaratunga's Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) have also
publicly affiliated themselves with the PNM.


9. (C) COMMENT: At this point, the peace process is in
a wait-and-see mode, with all eyes on the Tigers'
response to the GSL's north/east interim administration
proposal. The government's proposal was provided to the
LTTE in July and the Tigers have now had months to
review it. A LTTE response that is flexible will almost
certainly be crucial in getting the process back on
track after the group's abrupt withdrawal from the
negotiations in April. In the meantime, the fact that
the LTTE-SLMM meeting went well is a net positive for
the on-the-ground situation. Due largely to the LTTE's
failure to vacate the Wan Ela camp, LTTE-SLMM relations
had hit their nadir in recent weeks. The LTTE appears
to want to avoid a complete breakdown in ties, however.


10. (C) COMMENT (Continued): Regarding the JVP's
latest efforts, the group's hard-line opposition to the
peace process does not seem to have found much resonance
among the general public. In fact, based on all that we
are hearing, the process still retains strong public
support. That said, there is no doubt that the JVP
hopes that its stance becomes a winning issue down the
line. In the meantime, Sri Lanka can expect a string of
marches and rallies against the process, with some more
raucous than others. END COMMENT.


11. (U) Minimize considered.

LUNSTEAD