Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03COLOMBO1660
2003-09-24 11:31:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Colombo
Cable title:  

Maldives: Recent rioting in capital sparks

Tags:  PGOV PINS PHUM CASC MV 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001660 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS; NSC FOR E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09-24-13
TAGS: PGOV PINS PHUM CASC MV
SUBJECT: Maldives: Recent rioting in capital sparks
questions about stability of Gayoom regime

Refs: Colombo 1648, and previous (Notal)

(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b,d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001660

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS; NSC FOR E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09-24-13
TAGS: PGOV PINS PHUM CASC MALDIVES'>MV
SUBJECT: MALDIVES: Recent rioting in capital sparks
questions about stability of Gayoom regime

Refs: Colombo 1648, and previous (Notal)

(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: A Mission team visited the MALDIVES,
September 22-24. In the aftermath of the rioting that
took place on September 20, Male appeared calm with
little sign of any tension. In discussions on the
unrest, GoRM officials ritually blamed "drug users" and
"miscreants." Observers, however, seemed to be more on
the mark, commenting that the riots were a function of
the government's failure to democratize and engage the
"youth bulge." Despite the GoRM's problems, the feeling
was that President Gayoom would probably come out on top
in the ongoing presidential selection process. That
said, the unrest has sparked significant doubts about
the stability of his rule. END SUMMARY.

--------------
Mission Visit in Aftermath of Unrest
--------------


2. (C) Polchief, poloff and a POL FSN visited the
MALDIVES from September 22-24. In the aftermath of the
rioting that afflicted the city on September 20 (see
Reftel),the atmosphere in Male seemed calm, with
students in white uniforms going to school, and tourists
snapping photos of the harbor and gold-domed mosque.
The only evidence of the recent disturbances was the
noticeable presence of security forces in camouflage
uniforms patrolling the streets and an armored personnel
carrier parked near the presidential palace. Mission
did not see any of the several buildings torched by the
rioters, however. During the team's September 23 visit,
Gan Island, the southern-most in the Maldivian chain,
was also placid, with the matter of the riots in Male
seemingly as distant as the roughly 500 miles separating
the two islands.

--------------
Officials Blame "Drug Users"
--------------


3. (C) When asked about the September 20 riots, GoRM
officials tried hard to make it seem that the situation
was now totally fine and that what had happened was a
complete anomaly. Mohammed Munavvar, the Attorney

General, told the team that "drug users" and "other
miscreants" had taken advantage of anger over the death
of two prisoners in a government jail to run amok in the
capital (there are reports that a third prisoner later
succumbed to his wounds). Munavvar emphasized that he
did not think there was anything political about the
riots in Male, asserting that the unrest had nothing to
do with the ongoing presidential selection process (see
Para six) or with opposition to President Gayoom.
Munavvar added that it was important that the government
train guards and upgrade facilities so as to help make
sure that prison violence did not erupt ever again.
Other government officials that the team met with
repeated in almost ritual fashion comments similar to
those of Munavvar. The essential message from the GoRM
was: the unrest was not pleasant, but everything was
now fine again in the MALDIVES.

--------------
Observers see Something Deeper
--------------


4. (C) Compared to the almost canned remarks of
government officials, other observers seemed to be much
more on the mark regarding what was really transpiring.
Remarks by Minh Pham, the Amcit head of the UNDP office
in Male (pls strictly protect),were particularly
interesting. Pham told the team that there was no way
that the unrest involved only drug users as claimed by
the GoRM. The narcotics problem in the MALDIVES was a
small one and there was no indication that drug users
were a force that could riot and attack government
property on such a scale, he noted. Based on what he
had heard, Pham said he believed that the rioters were
mostly unemployed or underemployed youths, who had taken
advantage of the tensions over the killings at the
prison to launch attacks on the regime. Many of the
rioters were angered that the government was autocratic
in attitude and practice, and had failed to democratize
the system. These youths, he noted, had attacked
symbols of the government, such as the High Court and
the Elections Commission. The selection of such
targets, when private property was largely left
untouched, was a clear sign of the rioters' impatience
with President Gayoom and opposition to recent
controversial court rulings convicting politicians who
were popular with the young of various crimes. Boiling
down his points, Pham made clear that he thought that
the GoRM had done a very poor job of engaging the
country's "youth bulge" (55 percent of the population is
under 20). If progress was not made in involving the
young in decision-making in some way, Pham predicted
that the MALDIVES would see a repeat of the events of
September 20.


5. (C) Like Pham, N.T. Khankhub, the Acting High
Commissioner of India, stressed the point that a real
"generation gap" was emerging in the MALDIVES. The
president and much of his cabinet were over 60, and were
not able to relate well with the much younger bulk of
the population. Khankhub, noting that the events of
September 20 were "extraordinary" for the normally
placid MALDIVES, said he thought the government had to
work harder to relate to youths by providing them more
educational and economic opportunities. Some sort of
political outlet was also needed, he noted, or the
situation would "not be stable" in the future.

--------------
Impact on Presidential Selection Process
--------------


6. (C) Despite the government's problems, the overall
feeling was that President Gayoom probably would come
out on top in the ongoing presidential selection process
(see Reftels). Khankhub said there was little sign of
deterioration in Gayoom's support within regime circles,
and he should be able to win the upcoming vote in the
Majlis (Parliament) which was packed with hand-chosen
loyalists. This vote is scheduled to take place
September 24 or 25 and will involve the 50-member Majlis
selecting one candidate from the list of four (including
Gayoom) approved by the regime. GoRM officials and
other observers noted that the other three candidates
were not at all well-known, and almost certainly did not
stand a chance. Khankhub remarked that once Gayoom got
through the Majlis vote he should have no problem with
the "yes/no" referendum vote which would take place in
two or three weeks. Pham commented that he thought that
Gayoom's re-election appeared to be a "formality" unless
there were further disturbances that caused Gayoom's
supporters to lose faith in him.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) Although Gayoom might well come out on top in
the ongoing presidential selection process, the recent
unrest in Male has sparked significant doubts about the
stability of his rule. Mission has long noted that the
regime is mildly authoritarian and brittle in
countenancing political reform. It needs to act quickly
to become more inclusive, or there could be more
problems on the streets sooner rather than later. Based
on what the team heard from GoRM officials, however,
there does not seem to be a recognition of any need to
change on the part of the regime. This is not good news
and could indicate that September 20 was not a one off
event, but heralds a new era of confrontational politics
in the MALDIVES. END COMMENT.

8. (U) Minimize considered.

LUNSTEAD