Maldivian presidential election process kicks

C O N F I D E N T I A L COLOMBO 001605

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS
NSC FOR E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09-15-13
TAGS: PGOV PINS PHUM MV
SUBJECT: Maldivian presidential election process kicks
off; No signs of opposition to President Gayoom yet

Refs: Colombo 1493, and previous

(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b, d).


1. (U) In an announcement made late last week and
reported on the website of the government-controlled
newspaper "Haveeru," the Maldivian Elections Commission
has begun soliciting applications from possible
candidates for the 2003 presidential election.
Applications will be accepted for a one-week period
lasting from September 12-19. According to the
announcement, Maldivian law sets out the following
criteria for eligibility:

"Any man who is over 35 years old, who is sane, who is a
Sunni Muslim, who is a person capable of carrying out
presidential responsibilities, who has not been
convicted for any crimes under Islamic Sharia law, who
is not convicted of fraud, and who is not married to a
foreigner, can run in the presidential election."


2. (U) The Elections Commission's announcement formally
kicks off the Maldivian presidential selection process.
Next steps in the process include:

-- A three-member committee of the Elections Commission
will screen the applications received from possible
candidates. The Speaker of the Majlis will then
announce the final list of candidates.

-- In a secret ballot expected to take place later this
month, the 48-member Majlis (parliament) will select one
candidate from among the list.

-- The winner will then be approved (or not) in a
"yes/no" national referendum, which is slated to take
place in October.

-- The inauguration will take place in November.


3. (C) COMMENT: President Gayoom, who has been in
office since 1978, remains the hands down favorite to
win his sixth five-year term. Mission has checked with
a variety of contacts in the Maldives who confirm that
they have not heard of anyone planning to run against
Gayoom in the Majlis vote, thus far. That said, in his
last race in 1998, Gayoom faced some token opposition
and there will probably be several Maldivians who throw
their hats in the ring this time around. Given
generally favorable economic indices and little sign of
serious political dissonance, however, Gayoom's path to
a sixth term appears quite smooth at this time. The DCM
will be in Male from September 16-17 and will take the
political temperature at that time. END COMMENT.


4. (U) Minimize considered.

LUNSTEAD