In good news for peace process, President puts

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001586

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, S/CT, INR/NESA; NSC FOR E.
MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09-11-13
TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR CE
SUBJECT: In good news for peace process, President puts
possible pact with radical party on hold

Refs: Colombo 1583, and previous

(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: President Kumaratunga has firmly
signaled that a possible pact between her party and the
radical JVP is on hold for now. In explaining her
decision, the president made clear that the two sides
could not agree on peace process issues. According to
observers, however, other factors, such as domestic
politics and international opinion, heavily influenced
her decision. The pact idea could clearly be revived,
but its absence for now is good news for the UNP
governing coalition as it tries to manage difficult
peace process issues. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) PACT ON HOLD: President Kumaratunga has put on
hold a possible pact between her Sri Lanka Freedom Party
(SLFP),the key constituent element of her People's
Alliance (PA) grouping, and the radical Janantha
Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) ("People's Liberation Front")
party. The president communicated her views to the JVP
leadership at a September 5 meeting held at her office
in Colombo (see below). The president's decision
effectively closes down, at least for now, months of
rolling discussions between high-level SLFP and JVP
negotiators which began in early 2003 (See Reftels).
The discussions between the two sides had focused on
drawing up a written alliance agreement containing
policy elements and a plan for joint electoral lists for
parliamentary elections.


3. (C) PRESIDENT HIGHLIGHTS POLICY DIFFERENCES: The
September 5 meeting appears to have been quite
contentious. According to corroborated reports, after
arriving late at the meeting, the president told the JVP
representatives that she had long wanted the two major
opposition groupings, the SLFP and the JVP, to align so
they could effectively confront the United National
Front (UNF) government. She could not, however, agree
with aspects of the JVP's comprehensive anti-peace
process stance, including the group's refusal to accept
constitutional devolution as a possible solution to the
ethnic conflict. The president also noted that the
JVP's strong stance against third party facilitation and
Norway's role went too far for her. Due to these
concerns, the president did not foresee completion of a
pact in the near-term. At this point, upset with the
president's message, the JVP representatives reportedly
walked out of the meeting.


4. (C) POLITICAL CONCERNS: In making her points to the
JVP, the president hit on many themes she has made
before regarding a possible pact, some of which she made
earlier in the week during the SLFP's national
conference. Indeed, since she came to power in late
1994, the president has made clear that she favors a
peaceful resolution to the conflict through devolved
powers for the north and east. That said, many
observers feel that her rejection of the JVP at this
time has as much to do with politics as policy. In a
September 10 meeting, for example, Taranjit Sandhu,
polchief at the Indian High Commission, told polchief
that he thought the president was worried that her party
would lose political support if it joined with the JVP
at this time. Sandhu reasoned that the peace process
remained quite popular with the public. Thus, the
president, reading the tea leaves, did not want to be
firmly linked with the anti-peace process JVP until and
unless public opinion shifted toward a more skeptical
approach.


5. (C) Other observers have told us that they believe
that the president was also worried that she would lose
the respect of the international community if she
entered into a pact with the JVP. Jehan Perera, an
analyst at the Center for Policy Alternatives, a local
think-tank, told poloff on September 10 that he thought
the president cared a great deal for her reputation in
the international community. Given the generally bad
reviews the possible alliance was receiving, Perera
thought that the president was probably worried that
linking up with the JVP would hurt her credibility as
someone who wants ethnic reconciliation in Sri Lanka.
Tomas Stangeland, a Norwegian Embassy poloff, agreed
with this view, commenting to polchief on September 9
that the president probably grew concerned that her
reputation in international circles would be severely
tarnished by association with the Sinhalese chauvinist
JVP.


6. (C) REVIVAL OF POSSIBLE PACT?: Although the
possible pact is on the back burner for now, the
president, her supporters, and the JVP have made clear
that the idea could be revived. The president, for
example, has indicated that she continues to keep the
idea of a pact in her back pocket. At the same time,
Anura Bandaranaike, the president's brother and a senior
SLFP MP who is a strong proponent of a pact, has made
clear that he thinks that the idea could still be sealed
soon if both sides are prepared to compromise. In the
meantime, while its leaders clearly bristled over
Kumaratunga's decision to stop the formal discussions,
the JVP continues to indicate that it is open to the
idea of an alliance. Wimal Weerawanse, a senior JVP MP,
has been quoted in the press, for example, as asserting
that the JVP still wants a pact and will continue to
urge the SLFP to join in an "anti-government front."


7. (C) COMMENT: Kumaratunga is a cunning political
strategist who likes to surprise. She is also mercurial
in temperament. In light of these factors and in the
face of the latest soundings, it would not be a complete
shock if the pact idea was suddenly revived in short
order. That said, there seems little likelihood of the
proposal making a comeback soon, which removes some of
the haze which has been hanging over the domestic
political landscape for months now. That is good news
for the UNF government as it tries to manage difficult
peace process issues. END COMMENT.


8. (U) Minimize considered.
LUNSTEAD