Sri Lanka/Maldives: Mission views on possible

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001554

SIPDIS

NOFORN

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, IO/UNP, PMAT, PM/RSAT, NEA;
NSC FOR E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09-08-13
TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS PGOV CE MV IZ UN
SUBJECT: Sri Lanka/Maldives: Mission views on possible
reaction to proposed UNSC Resolution on Iraq

Ref: State 256573

(U) Classified by Ambassador Jeffrey J. Lunstead.
Reasons 1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) In response to Reftel, Mission has the following
comments regarding possible Sri Lankan and Maldivian
reaction to the proposed UN Security Council Resolution
on Iraq.


2. (C/NF) SRI LANKA: Although it is generally pro-U.S.
and has not been hostile in any sense toward Coalition
operations in Iraq, the Sri Lankan government has not
previously expressed an interest in participating in the
Stabilization Force, or defraying its costs. While the
proposed UNSC resolution would be greeted warmly by the
government in public and in private as a sign of
international resolve regarding Iraq, we do not believe
that the resolution would put it in position to be a
contributor due to domestic political considerations.
If it was to announce a military contribution, for
example, the government fears serious domestic criticism
from opposition parties and others that troops would be
leaving the country while the Liberation Tigers of Tamil
Eelam (LTTE) remain a serious threat despite the ongoing
peace process. Such criticism would be made although
the Sri Lankan Army -- which badly wants exposure to
international peacekeeping operations -- has privately
indicated to us that it perceives no problem, vis-a-vis
the potential LTTE threat, with deploying perhaps a
company to a battalion of troops overseas. In addition,
the government would also fear that a proposal to send
Sri Lankan troops to Iraq might alienate the country's
important Muslim community (seven percent of the
population). The GSL's control of Parliament relies in
part on Muslim MPs, who are already upset with the
direction of the peace process, and we think it would be
loathe to offend Muslim sensibilities regarding Iraq.
The concern about Muslims, of course, might be obviated
if a new resolution leads to the participation of Muslim
countries in the Stabilization Force.


3. (C/NF) In terms of defraying costs, while economic
indices are looking up due to the ongoing peace process,
Sri Lankans are already searching for the elusive "peace
dividend" and budget constraints are severe. In light
of this, significant GSL monetary contributions to
operations in Iraq would almost certainly not be
forthcoming. Some sort of token "in kind" contribution
might be offered -- several months ago, for example, the
GSL offered to send tea. Overall, while Mission
believes a quiet diplomatic effort should be made to
sound out the GSL re a possible contribution if a UNSC
resolution is in the cards, we are not confident that
the effort would result in tangible support for
operations in Iraq. To some extent, however, Sri Lankan
international policy looks to India as a guide and a
favorable signal by the GoI to the resolution might have
a positive impact on GSL views.


4. (C/NF) MALDIVES: The Maldivian government has not
previously expressed an interest in participating in the
Stabilization Force, or defraying its costs. While not
explicitly negative in its spare public comments, the
Maldivian government has not come out in support of the
Coalition's efforts in Iraq. Indeed, in the government-
controlled press, the GoRM is allowing a fair amount of
criticism of U.S. efforts to be aired in the completely
Muslim country. Given this situation, we think the
proposed UNSC resolution could only help melt the ice
with the GoRM regarding Iraq. With a resolution, for
example, we believe that the GoRM might even be tempted
to provide some sort of token support, such as a medical
or radio team, or perhaps some funds if it saw that
other Muslim countries were joining in. As the Maldives
is a very small country with extremely limited military
capabilities, we doubt that it could do more than
something relatively modest in size. Nonetheless, if
the proposed UNSC resolution is passed, we believe that
an effort should be made to sound out the Maldives
regarding possible ways to support the Coalition's
efforts. Like Sri Lanka, the Maldivian government also
looks to India on international issues, and we think its
calculus on this matter would be affected by the Indian
government's reaction to some degree.


5. (U) Minimize considered.

LUNSTEAD