Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03COLOMBO1522
2003-09-02 10:12:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Embassy Colombo
Cable title:  

Tiger political chief Thamilchelvam's steady

Tags:  PGOV PTER PINR PINS CE LTTE 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

021012Z Sep 03
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001522 

SIPDIS

NOFORN

DEPARTMENT FOR D, SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA, S/CT; NSC FOR

E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09-02-13
TAGS: PGOV PTER PINR PINS CE LTTE
SUBJECT: Tiger political chief Thamilchelvam's steady
eclipse of group's long-time spokesman

Refs: (A) SA/INS-Colombo class e-mail 08/29/03

- (B) Colombo 1504, and previous

(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b,d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001522

SIPDIS

NOFORN

DEPARTMENT FOR D, SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA, S/CT; NSC FOR

E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09-02-13
TAGS: PGOV PTER PINR PINS CE LTTE
SUBJECT: Tiger political chief Thamilchelvam's steady
eclipse of group's long-time spokesman

Refs: (A) SA/INS-Colombo class e-mail 08/29/03

- (B) Colombo 1504, and previous

(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: S.P. Thamilchelvam, political chief of
the Tamil Tigers, has taken an increasingly high profile
role as chief Tiger spokesman on peace track issues. In
the meantime, Anton Balasingham, the group's long-time
spokesman and negotiator, has not been heard from in
weeks. In explaining this situation, some say
Balasingham is ill and is convalescing, or that
Thamilchelvam has been hand-picked by Tiger leader
Prabhakaran to replace Balasingham for political
reasons. If the experienced Balasingham remains out of
the picture, it could represent a setback for the peace
process, given Thamilchelvam's acute lack of
international experience and stature. END SUMMARY.

--------------
Thamilchelvam's Ascendance
--------------


2. (C) In the past several months, S.P. Thamilchelvam,
political chief of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam
(LTTE),has taken an increasingly high profile role as
chief Tiger spokesman on peace process issues. In doing
so, Thamilchelvam is steadily eclipsing the role
traditionally held by Anton Balasingham, the LTTE's
long-standing chief spokesman and negotiator. Signs of
Thamilchelvam's rapid ascendancy include:

-- In a late August "in house" meeting of LTTE officials
and pro-LTTE Tamils in Paris, Thamilchelvam led the LTTE
team (see Ref B). Balasingham, who lives in London, did
not attend. Thamilchelvam's participation received
significant local press coverage and he was also
featured on the pro-LTTE website, "TamilNet."
Thamilchelvam is also slated to lead a LTTE team to
Switzerland in early September to discuss federalism-
related issues.

-- In late July - early August, Thamilchelvam made a
high profile trip to eastern Sri Lanka. In Batticaloa

and Trincomalee Districts, Thamilchelvam spoke at a
number of large pro-LTTE rallies and met with the local
Tiger leadership. The trip received significant press
coverage (see Ref B),including on TamilNet.

-- TamilNet, and other pro-LTTE websites and
publications, have taken to lavishly quoting
Thamilchelvam's comments on current events.

-- Thamilchelvam is increasingly the "go to" LTTE
official for the Norwegian government facilitation team
and the Norwegian-run Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission
(SLMM).

(Note: Additional bio information regarding
Thamilchelvam and Balasingham is available in Reftels.)

--------------
Silence from Balasingham
--------------


3. (C) The flip side of Thamilchelvam's high profile has
been the silence from the London-based Balasingham.
Since the advent of the peace process in December 2001
until recently, Balasingham was the key LTTE official
cited by the pro-LTTE press, and the LTTE official
taking the lead in meetings with the Norwegian
facilitators and GSL officials. That has all changed,
however. As mentioned above, while Balasingham used to
be quoted on TamilNet constantly, his last substantive
statement was posted on June 25. After that time, it
has all been Thamilchelvam. Moreover, based on comments
from Tamil contacts, there are also no/no reports that
Balasingham has been meeting in London with Tamil
interlocutors regarding peace process issues. There are
also no indications that he plans to visit Sri Lanka, as
he has done on occasion during the course of the peace
process, to consult with the LTTE leadership in the
north. From what Mission understands, the Norwegian
facilitators have also not met him in some time. We
have also not heard of any contacts between Balasingham
and Sri Lankan government officials in months. In
essence, Balasingham seems to be completely out of the
picture at this time.

--------------
Is it Balasingham's Health?
--------------


4. (C) The LTTE, as is its secretive style regarding
personnel matters (and just about anything else),has
not issued any statements explaining Balasingham's
absence from the scene -- or Thamilchelvam's ascendance.
In discussing this issue, some contacts claim that
Balasingham is seriously ill and no longer can do the
job, or that he is storing up his strength for possible
peace talks later this year. It has long been known
that Balasingham has chronic illnesses; he has
reportedly had a kidney transplant and is said to have
diabetes. In arranging for Balasingham's participation
at the six rounds of peace talks held from late 2002
through early 2003 in venues including Bangkok and
Berlin, the Norwegian facilitators had to work hard to
ensure that Balasingham had access to medical care at
all times.


5. (C) Regarding Balasingham's current health status,
Norwegian contacts have told us that they think that
Balasingham is basically convalescing. In an August 29
meeting with poloff, Kjersti Tromsdahl, poloff at the
Norwegian Embassy, noted that the GoN did not have much
concrete information on the situation. That said, she
commented that she thought that Balasingham's health was
extremely poor, but was not deteriorating. Balasingham
appeared to be pacing himself, preparing for possible
talks with the Sri Lankan government later this year.
The Norwegians had no indications that Balasingham's
health might take him out of the picture completely, or
that he had somehow run afoul of V. Prabhakaran, the
LTTE leader, Tromsdahl related.


6. (C/NF) British government contacts have given us a
mixed picture re Balasingham's health. In an August 29
conversation, Margaret Tongue, poloff at the British
High Commission, told us that she had heard that
Balasingham was ill and that his health was getting
worse. Tongue indicated that HMG officials had not met
with Balasingham in some time, although he lives in the
London area. In the meantime in a report that somewhat
contradicted Tongue's points, a British embassy contact
provided an intel document to SA/INS deskoff on
August 29 that said that Balasingham had recently made
personal trips outside of the UK. The information that
Balasingham was ambulatory tended to indicate that his
health was not the reason for his recent low profile on
peace track issues (see more re British views below).

--------------
Is it Politics?
--------------


7. (C) Another perspective on the situation is that
Thamilchelvam has been hand-picked by Tiger leader V.
Prabhakaran to replace Balasingham for political
reasons. Several Tamil contacts hold this view. Suresh
Premachandran, a Tamil politician with long-standing
connections with Tamil militant groups, for example,
told us recently that he thought that Prabhakaran had
decided to take a harder line regarding the peace
process, and had taken steps to substitute a more pliant
Thamilchelvam for the more independent-minded
Balasingham. Premachandran added that he had heard that
Prabhakaran and Balasingham had had a bit of a falling
out over participation at the Tokyo donors conference.
Balasingham had wanted the LTTE to go, but Prabhakaran
had ordered the LTTE to boycott the June 2003
conference.


8. (C/NF) In an August 30 conversation with poloff, N.
Raviraj, a MP for the Tamil National Alliance, said he
also thought politics was the genesis of Balasingham's
seeming eclipse. He said he had heard that
Balasingham's position within the LTTE hierarchy was not
a strong one at this time and Prabhakaran had decided to
give more responsibility to Thamilchelvam. Neither
Premachandran nor Raviraj thought that Balasingham's
disappearance from the scene was necessarily permanent,
however, with both thinking he could make a comeback if
Prabhakaran permitted it. (Note: The British document
mentioned above also indicated that there was some
dissonance in the LTTE between "pragmatic hard-liners"
like Balasingham and "hard-liners" like Thamilvelvam.
Prabhakaran was backing the hard-line camp, according to
the document. The British report was not clear as to
its sourcing.)

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) The LTTE is a notoriously opaque organization.
Given how secretive it is, there is virtually no way to
confirm reports that Prabhakaran may have replaced
Balasingham in favor of Thamilchelvam. At the same
time, accurate information about the precise state of
Balasingham's health is not available. What can be
said, however, is that if Balasingham remains out of the
picture for whatever reason, it could represent a
setback for the peace process. Balasingham has years of
international experience and understands the art of
negotiation. Thamilchelvam, a former LTTE military
official, lacks such experience. Unlike Prabhakaran, he
also lacks stature, as he seems more of a creature of
Prabhakaran's than an influential actor within LTTE
circles in his own right. All that said, given
Prabhakaran's absolutely central importance in the
organization, LTTE decision-making regarding peace track
issues will ultimately be decided by what policies
Prabhakaran alone chooses to pursue, and not by either
Balasingham or Thamilchelvam. Experience is important,
however, and a prolonged absence by Balasingham could
potentially lead to problems around the edges of the
peace process down the road. END COMMENT.


10. (U) Minimize considered.

LUNSTEAD