Peace Process update: In Paris, Tigers say

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001482

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR D, SA, SA/INS, EUR/NB, EUR/WE
NSC FOR E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08-25-13
TAGS: PGOV PTER PHUM PREF CE FR NO LTTE
SUBJECT: Peace Process update: In Paris, Tigers say
they aim for talks; President urges action on camp

Refs: Colombo 1466, and previous

(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Charge'
d'Affaires. Reasons 1.5 (b, d).


1. (C) This update of Sri Lanka's peace process reviews
the following:

>> On margins of ongoing meeting in Paris, Tiger
official says group aims to restart talks

>> President Kumaratunga demands that GSL take steps
against unauthorized Tiger camp in east

>> Tensions in east between Muslims and the Tigers
continue to percolate

>> The flavor of the Peace Process: Latest poll shows
support for peace process higher than ever

==========================================
Mainly Positive Vibes from Tigers in Paris
==========================================


2. (SBU) The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)
meeting in Paris, which began on August 21, is
continuing. Few details are emerging from the closed
door meeting, which involves high-level LTTE officials
and Tamil supporters of the group from outside of Sri
Lanka. On the margins of the meeting, however, Tiger
officials have been making mainly upbeat comments to the
press. S.P. Thamilchelvam, the leader of the LTTE
delegation and the group's political wing chief, for
example, was quoted as stating: "We want to resume the
peace talks; it is on that basis that we are meeting in
Paris." (Note: The Tigers withdrew from the talks with
the Sri Lankan government in April.) Thamilchelvam went
on to say that the meeting's participants were closely
reviewing the government's July proposal for creating an
interim structure in the north/east. The GSL's proposal
was "ambiguous," he said, and the group was developing
counter-proposals to present to the government. He did
not provide any details regarding the nature of the
counter-proposals, however.


3. (C) COMMENT: At this point, the meeting in Paris
appears to be proceeding in as positive a direction for
the peace track as might be hoped. Thamilchelvam and
the rest of his LTTE team, for example, are being very
careful with their words, and seem to want to smooth
things out and not inflame matters with the government.
That said, tentative indications are that the LTTE's
counter-proposals could well be stiff ones, with the
group pressing for maximum power in the north/east.
The planned presence at the Paris meeting of Norwegian
Special Envoy Erik Solheim later this week will
hopefully convince participants to endorse realistic
counter-proposals, not ones too onerous for the GSL to
consider. END COMMENT.

=======================================
Kumaratunga Demands Action on LTTE Camp
=======================================


4. (SBU) President Kumaratunga has entered the fray
over the LTTE's unauthorized military camp in the east.
In an August 21 letter to Prime Minister Wickremesinghe,
which her office subsequently made public, the president
demanded that the government take "action" against the
LTTE's "Wan Ela" camp, which the Norwegian-run Sri Lanka
Monitoring Mission (SLMM) ruled in July violated the
February 2002 ceasefire accord. In her letter,
Kumaratunga did not specify exactly what the government
should do about the camp except to state "the authority
of the government should be exercised immediately to
have the camp withdrawn." The president's letter also
criticizes what she characterizes as the SLMM's
"limited" enforcement ability and the "heavily flawed"
ceasefire agreement. It is not known whether the prime
minister has responded to the president's letter as of
yet.


5. (C) COMMENT: The president and her advisers have
been somewhat feisty of late regarding the peace
process, as if they believe the government is newly
vulnerable on that score. The Tigers' refusal to vacate
the Wan Ela camp, their assassination of opponents, and
their violent attacks on Muslims in the east have
probably raised public skepticism to some extent (see
below re latest polling),but the acerbic tone the
president has used in making her criticisms, and the
fact that the government has basically chosen to ignore
her, are almost certainly not helping improve stressful
cohabitation ties. END COMMENT.
Tensions Continue to Percolate in the East
==========================================


6. (SBU) There continues to be a haze of tension over
the east following the murders of four Muslims last
week, presumably at the hands of Tiger hitmen (see
Reftels). Security has been stepped up, with military
and police increasing their patrols in the region.
Despite the enhanced security presence, Muslims and the
LTTE remain at each other's throats, with four Tamil
youths abducted in the town of Ampara on August 23,
while two Muslims from Batticaloa remain unaccounted for
and are presumed to have been kidnapped by the Tigers.
In the meantime, a hartal (work stoppage) was observed
by Tamils on August 25 in Trincomalee area. No violence
was reported.


7. (C) COMMENT: LTTE-Muslim relations in the east are
always tense and are going through one of their periodic
bad patches right now. Under fierce criticism from
Muslim politicians, who are clearly getting increasingly
exasperated, the government appears to be doing its best
to clamp down, but it has shown little inclination to
take on the LTTE. In the meantime, although it is
unconfirmed, there are continued reports that small
knots of Muslims are banding together to take on the
LTTE. Given the effectiveness of LTTE forces, this
effort is unlikely to succeed, but Sri Lanka could be in
for a spike in Muslim extremism. END COMMENT.

==========================================
Peace Process Earns High Marks with Public
==========================================


8. (C) In our "flavor of the peace process" section,
Sri Lankans have given the 20-month old peace process
the highest vote of confidence yet in a recent poll.
Conducted in May by the Center for Policy Alternatives
(CPA),a well-respected local think-tank, the poll
reports that 87.4 percent of Sri Lankans believe that
face-to-face talks between the government and the LTTE
are the best way to bring peace to the country. This
seeming endorsement of the GSL's peace track flags a
steady upward trend, improving on 80 percent support at
the beginning of the peace process in December 2001 and
83 percent approval six months ago. Assessing the
numbers along ethnic lines, the CPA poll showed a
greater than 85 percent support from each of the
Sinhalese, Tamil, and Muslim communities. The poll also
revealed high approval for the Norwegian government's
peace facilitation effort.


9. (C) COMMENT: Despite ups-and-downs in the process
and the occasional hot criticism from the opposition,
the government's efforts for peace with the LTTE have
seemed to be buoyed all along by strong public support.
The CPA poll results appear to underscore the depth and
breadth of such support. There is considerable lag time
in gathering poll results in Sri Lanka, however, and
much water has passed under the bridge since May. Some
of the news since that timeframe -- such as the Tokyo
donors conference -- has no doubt served to reinforce
support for the peace track. That said, the
intensification of the LTTE's aggressive tactics in
recent weeks may have added a degree of skepticism. END
COMMENT.


10. (U) Minimize considered.

ENTWISTLE