Maldivian presidential selection process set

C O N F I D E N T I A L COLOMBO 001384

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS
NSC FOR E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08-07-13
TAGS: PGOV PINS PHUM MALDIVES'>MV
SUBJECT: Maldivian presidential selection process set
to kick off, with President expected to win easily

Refs: Colombo 1266, and previous

(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Charge d'Affaires.
Reasons 1.5 (b, d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Maldivian presidential selection
process is set to kick off in September, with the Majlis
(parliament) selecting a candidate who will stand in a
referendum in October. President Gayoom is widely
expected to win with ease. Gayoom seems a popular
ruler, though the selection system has come under some
criticism. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL "ELECTION": The Maldivian
presidential selection process is set to kick off. The
Maldivian government has not yet settled on a final
schedule of events, but the Majlis seems slated to
select a candidate in September who will then stand in a
national referendum in October. The presidential
inauguration is tentatively scheduled to take place in
November.


3. (U) MORE ON THE PROCESS: Under the country's
presidential selection process (which the Maldivians
call an "election"),any citizen who meets the
eligibility requirements (Sunni Muslim, requisite age 35
or older, male, etc.) set out in the 1968 constitution,
can run for president by submitting his name as a
candidate to the unicameral 48-member Majlis. In a
secret ballot, the Majlis, which is composed of elected

SIPDIS
and appointed members (there are no political parties),
then selects a single candidate. This candidate is then
approved (or not) in a "yes or no" national referendum,
with a majority "yes" vote needed for approval. The
president serves a five year term.


4. (C) GAYOOM WIDELY EXPECTED TO WIN: President
Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, who has been in power since 1978,
is widely expected to run and win his sixth term. When
queried during a recent Embassy trip to Male,
interlocutors said they expected that Gayoom would win
without much if any problem. Some observers have told
emboffs, however, that Gayoom might face an opponent or
two in the Majlis vote that kicks off the process. None
of the possible opponents is considered well-known, or
to be much of a threat to Gayoom, who is believed to
maintain strong support among the various atoll-based
factions that rub shoulders in the Majlis. Once Gayoom
gets past the Majlis, he seems set to easily win the
"yes/no" referendum. In past referendums, Gayoom has
garnered well over 95 percent "yes" votes.


5. (C) COMMENT: With the wind of solid economic
indices behind his back (see Reftels),Gayoom and his
ruling circle seem to be relatively popular (there are
no polls, so this perception is anecdotal). The
MALDIVES, however, has come under some criticism for its
only marginally democratic presidential selection
process, which has chronically produced non-competitive
races in the past. In recent years, given very
tentative stirrings among the younger generation for
change (50 percent of the population is under 20 years
of age),this system might well have to be adjusted and
opened up. At this point, however, Gayoom's path to a
sixth term seems to be clear. END COMMENT.


6. (U) Minimize considered.

ENTWISTLE