Tigers say report on plan to vacate base is

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001330

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, S/CT
NSC FOR E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07-30-13
TAGS: PGOV PTER PINS CE NO LTTE
SUBJECT: Tigers say report on plan to vacate base is
false, but contacts see thaw in their hard-line stance

Refs: (A) FBIS Reston Va DTG 300259Z Jul 03

- (B) FBIS Reston Va DTG 300245Z Jul 03
- (C) SA/INS-Colombo 07-30-03 class e-mail sequence
- (D) Colombo 1325, and previous

(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Charge d'Affaires.
Reasons 1.5 (b, d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Tigers have denied a press report
that they plan to vacate a new forward base in the east.
The monitors, who have ruled the base violates the
ceasefire accord, say they no indication that the group
is vacating the site; GoN facilitators are looking into
the matter. Nonetheless, pro-Tiger MPs have told us
that they think the group may vacate the site soon.
While the Tigers are extremely unpredictable, we would
be surprised if they pushed this matter much further.
END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) DENIAL OF TV REPORT: The Liberation Tigers of
Tamil Eelam (LTTE) organization has flatly denied that
it plans to vacate a forward base it has established
near the town of Trincomalee in eastern Sri Lanka.
(Note: For further details re the controversy over the
base, which, confusingly, is variously referred to as
the "Kinniya," "Wan Ela," "Manrasakulam," and
"Kurankupanchan" camp -- see Ref D.) The denial, which
was posted on "TamilNet," the pro-LTTE website on
July 30, was in response to a news report carried late
July 29 on the Sri Lanka Broadcasting Corporation
(SLBC). (Note: The SLBC report was also carried by the
DAILY NEWS, a major English-language newspaper, on
July 30.) In the report, the SLBC said LTTE Political
Chief S.P. Thamilchelvam had traveled to the Trincomalee
area to discuss the issue with LTTE cadre after ordering
the full dismantlement of the base within the next 72
hours. In its denial, TamilNet also quoted the LTTE's
area commanders as stating that Thamilchelvam had not in
fact visited the Trincomalee area on July 29.
(Note: In a rare foray away from the LTTE-occupied
Wanni region, Thamilchelvam has been visiting the
Batticaloa area the past several days. It seems likely
that he may stop in Trincomalee today, July 30, based on
what we are hearing.)


3. (C) MONITORS CANNOT CONFIRM LTTE PLANS: For its
part, the Norwegian-run Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission
(SLMM),which recently ruled that the LTTE's base had
been established in violation of the February 2002
ceasefire accord, said it had received no word from the
group re its plans for the base. Kurt Spur, Acting
Chief of the SLMM's Trincomalee office, told us that as
of mid-day July 30 the LTTE base was still there and
there were no signs of that it was being dismantled.
In a conversation with poloff, Hagrup Haukland, the
SLMM's Colombo-based Deputy Chief, said the monitors
continue to try to "reach out" to the LTTE on the issue,
but the group "is not reciprocating." As he has stated
to the press on numerous occasions of late, Haukland
went on to remark that the LTTE's failure to vacate the
base promptly could lead the SLMM to "reconsider how it
does business." When pressed by polchief re this
seeming threat, Haukland replied that the SLMM had no
plans to take any sort of drastic action over the issue,
such as withdrawing from Sri Lanka.


4. (C) The Norwegian government facilitators are also
looking into the situation. Norwegian Ambassador Hans
Brattskar told the Charge that he could not confirm the
SLBC report that the Tigers had decided to vacate the
base. He said he would look into the veracity of the
report (see Ref C).


5. (C) LTTE RELAXING STANCE?: On the other hand, two
Tamil politicians with close links to the LTTE have told
us that they have heard that the group may be
reconsidering its stance on the base. Joseph
Pararajahsingham and Gajan Ponnambalam, Tamil National
Alliance (TNA) MPs, told us that they had heard that the
LTTE planned to withdraw from the base in the next
several days. Ponnambalam said the group was just
trying to "make a point" via its establishment of the
base, not undermine the peace process. (Note: Suiting
the opaque ways of the LTTE and its supporters,
Ponnambalam was vague on what this "point" might be.)
Pararajahsingham said the group certainly did not want
to provoke any sort of armed confrontation with the
government over the issue. Polchief underscored to both
TNA MPs that, in the interest of the peace process, it
was absolutely vital that both parties fully honor the
rulings of the SLMM.


6. (C) (((Note: Re the GSL's stance on this matter,
there is no indication thus far that the government is
planning any sort of military action meant to force the
LTTE from the base. In public, the government has
sought to downplay the situation, seemingly going to
lengths not to ramp up the pressure on the LTTE. In
private, however, the GSL has underlined that it wants
the matter resolved as soon as possible -- see Ref C.
End Note.)))


7. (C) COMMENT: While the Tigers are very, very
unpredictable, we would be surprised if they pushed this
matter much further. Based on our soundings, the group
seems to be getting the message that its new base in the
east has harmed its relationship with the SLMM and
potentially courts some sort of armed confrontation with
the GSL. If the Tigers do throw in their cards, it will
fit into their tactical style of trying to push the
envelope as far as it goes only to retreat in the face
of resistance. All that said, the group's leadership is
mercurial to say the least and, although the base has no
apparent strategic value, it is possible the LTTE sees
some sort of obscure symbolic value in holding it. END
COMMENT.

ENTWISTLE