Political Islam in Sri Lanka and the Maldives

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001253

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, S/CT, NEA
NSC FOR E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07-17-13
TAGS: KISL PGOV PTER PREL SOCI MV CE
SUBJECT: Political Islam in Sri Lanka and the Maldives

Ref: State 205815

(U) Classified by Donald A. Camp, Charge d'Affaires.
Reasons 1.5 (b, d).


1. (C) In response to Reftel action request, country
descriptions of political Islam as a factor in Sri Lanka
and the Maldives are contained in Paras 2-7.

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SRI LANKA
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2. (C) OVERVIEW: Political Islam is not an
important factor in Sri Lanka at this time. Sri Lanka
is a majority Buddhist country with a large Hindu
presence, and, of Sri Lanka's roughly 20 million people,
only about 7 percent are Muslim (the vast majority
Sunni). While some Muslims are affluent and there is a
large population of Muslims in the eastern region, the
community as a whole is essentially a marginal player in
Sri Lanka in terms of the country's politics, culture,
and economy. The key caveat to the moderate picture the
Muslim community presents involves Sri Lanka's ongoing
peace process. In a dynamic that is already in its
early stages, eastern Muslims could become radicalized
in an Islamist direction if they perceive that a
possible negotiated settlement to the conflict would
leave the Tamil Tigers in control of their home region.


3. (C) DISCUSSION: The majority of Muslims support the
various factions of the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress
(SLMC),which holds 15 seats in the 225-seat Parliament.
Founded as a product of a local Muslim "identity"
movement that began after Sri Lanka's independence in
1948, the SLMC is a communal party, but is basically
secular, steering away from a discourse focused on
religious precepts such as shari'ah. The party also
supports modern social norms, such as equality for
women. With respect to foreign policy, the party has
generally not/not supported U.S. policy in the Middle
East, including in regard to the Israeli/Palestinian
dispute and Iraq. That said, the main faction of the
SLMC, which is led by Minister of Ports Raul Hakeem (a
close Mission contact),is a member of the United
National Front (UNF) governing coalition and has not
protested the GSL's largely pro-U.S. policies. In early
2003, the SLMC was buffeted by disagreements over how to
approach Sri Lanka's peace process, cementing political
fractures in the party. At this point, there are three
major SLMC factions: SLMC (Hakeem); SLMC (Athaullah);
and the National Unity Alliance (NUA). (Note: The
leader of the NUA is Ferial Ashraff, another close
Mission contact, who is the widow of the founder of the
SLMC, M.H.M. Ashraff, who died in 2000.) While they
disagree on peace track issues, none of the factions is
Islamist-leaning at this time. Other than the SLMC,
many Muslims -- especially those in Colombo -- are
supporters of the country's dominant political parties,
the United National Party (UNP) and the People's
Alliance (PA). Both the UNP and the PA are dominated by
Sinhalese Buddhists.


4. (C) Against this backdrop of routine participation
by Muslims in the democratic process, there is very
little evidence of political Islam in Sri Lanka. During
the military campaigns against the al-Qaida/Taliban in
Afghanistan in late 2001 and more recently against the
Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq, there were some anti-U.S.
demonstrations in which Muslims played a role. One
party active in these demonstrations was the Muslim
United Liberation Front (MULF),which has no
parliamentary representation and has very few members.
In general, the various factions of the SLMC did not
participate in these demonstrations, though there was a
slight undercurrent of anti-U.S. feeling among
mainstream Muslims.


5. (C) The very limited Islamist feeling that there is
in Sri Lanka flows from the Muslim community's fear of
the terrorist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)
organization and not from the anti-U.S., anti-Israel
motif prevalent in the Middle East. This perspective is
particularly widespread in the eastern region where
Muslims, who form somewhere over 25 percent of the
regional population, are deeply anxious that any
negotiated settlement to the conflict not leave the
Tamil Tigers in control of the east. There is some
information that some disaffected Muslims in the east
have formed small anti-Tamil Tiger armed groups with
names like "Osama" and "Jihad." Such groups are not a
major factor in the east at this time. Nonetheless,
fueled reportedly by money from "charitable foundations"
based in the Middle East and remittances from Muslims
working in that region, there has been an overall shift
in the east toward an Islam with a harder edge. (Note:
Across the wide spectrum of the Muslim community in Sri
Lanka, there is also some indication that more women are
honoring hijab norms by covering their hair, etc., than
was the case in the past. This could be an indication
of a push for prevalence of stricter forms of Islam
within the community.) Anecdotally, Mission has heard
that some anti-western views may be gaining a limited
beachhead in the east where there was none before. The
Sri Lankan government is well aware of the potential
problem with Muslims in the east and keeps a close watch
over the situation.

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MALDIVES
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6. (C) OVERVIEW AND DISCUSSION: Political Islam is not
an important factor in the Maldives at this time. Of
the Maldives' roughly 300,000 people, virtually all are
Sunni Muslim, which is the state religion. Islam in the
Maldives is strictly controlled by the government, which
enforces a moderate form of the faith. Women's rights
to full participation in society, for example, are
protected by the government. With respect to foreign
policy, the Maldivian government generally assumes a low
profile, looking toward the Organization of the Islamic
Conference (OIC) and India, its influential neighbor to
the north, for its cues on major issues. The
government, which is led by President Gayoom, who
considers himself a reformer in the Ataturk mold, is
basically quite friendly to the U.S., strongly
supporting the international campaign against terrorism,
for example.


7. (C) Despite this generally positive picture, there
are concerns that some trace elements of Islamic
extremism may be emerging in the Maldives. The
government is concerned that some Maldivians returning
from studies in the Middle East may have imbibed radical
beliefs, and several reported Islamist-leaning
Maldivians were convicted of subversion in 2002.
(Note: One Maldivian national, who was captured in
Pakistan, is detained in Guantanamo.) Although the
country has relatively strong economic indices, there
are worries that unemployment and underemployment may
create a fertile ground for radicals. Moreover, the
government's autocratic style may also help spark
dissent. All that said, there is no evidence that any
Islamist organizations have taken root in the Maldives
at this time.


8. (U) Minimize considered.

CAMP