Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03COLOMBO1190
2003-07-08 11:17:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Colombo
Cable title:  

President's party weighs in on Tigers, GSL,

Tags:  PREL PGOV PTER CE 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001190 

SIPDIS

NSC FOR E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07-08-13
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER CE
SUBJECT: President's party weighs in on Tigers, GSL,
and alliance with left-wingers

Refs: Colombo 1143, and previous

(U) Classified by Donald Camp, Charge d'Affaires.
Reasons 1.5 (b, d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001190

SIPDIS

NSC FOR E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07-08-13
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER CE
SUBJECT: President's party weighs in on Tigers, GSL,
and alliance with left-wingers

Refs: Colombo 1143, and previous

(U) Classified by Donald Camp, Charge d'Affaires.
Reasons 1.5 (b, d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In the wake of the June Tokyo donors
conference, Sri Lankan President Chandrika Bandaranaike
Kumaratunga, and her People's Alliance (PA) party, have
been relatively quiet in their attacks on Prime Minister
Ranil Wickremesinghe and his government's ruling United
National Party (UNP). In recent meetings with Charge,
key presidential advisors and high-ranking PA members
discussed the PA's mounting distrust of the Tigers, the
president's continuing uneasy cohabitation relationship
with the PM, and their commitment to an alliance with a
radical, left-wing Sinhala chauvinist party. Perhaps
reflecting the general popularity of the peace process,
the PA members were all clear that a (potential) change
in government would not mean a breakdown in talks, at
least from their side. END SUMMARY

--------------
PA WARINESS OF THE TIGERS
--------------


2. (C) The most vocal interlocutor against the actions
of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) was key
presidential advisor Lakshman Kadirgamar who met with
Charge on June 27. Kadirgamar characterized the recent
sidelining of LTTE theoretician Anton Balasingham as
noteworthy, with LTTE leader V. Prabhakaran's higher
visibility correlating to a more hardline approach.
(Note: Just prior to the Tokyo conference, Balasingham
abruptly cut short his trip to the Wanni, a move seen as
suggesting that Prabhakaran was changing negotiating
tack.) In separate meetings with Charge, Opposition
Leader Mahinda Rajapakse and Anura Bandaranaike
(President Kumaratunga's brother) were also harshly
critical of the LTTE's belligerent attitude and
continual rejection of each and every government offer
of an interim administration. Rajapakse said the Tigers
were also destroying any public softening of attitudes
toward them with the recent killings of anti-LTTE Tamil
politicians.


3. (C) (Note: Bandaranaike stated, however, that the
president maintains an informal mid-level dialogue with
the LTTE through intermediaries. Through them, she has

assured the Tigers of her intent to continue the peace
process, regardless of who is in government.)

--------------
COHABITATION REMAINS FRAGILE
--------------


4. (C) Kadirgamar and Bandaranaike highlighted the
tense cohabitation situation. They acknowledged the
prime minister's efforts to engage the Tigers in the
peace process, even speaking of the president's support
for the government's interim administration proposals.
In the next breath, however, each complained about the
PM's lack of consultation -- on the peace process, on
ministry issues -- with the president. While the
president knew working with the prime minister was
essential, especially re the peace process, Kadirgamar
stated that cohabitation was not really working and
Bandaranaike reminded us of his sister's strong dislike
for the PM. Kadirgamar added that it was a long-
standing request of the PA to be included in the peace
talks. Rajapakse said that the president's non-
consultative move to take over the Development Lotteries
Board was retaliation against the PM for his absence of
consultation with her.

--------------
COMMITMENT TO AN ALLIANCE WITH JVP
--------------


5. (C) For months, the media has been detailing the
impending linkup between the PA and the left-wing,
Sinhala chauvanist Janantha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP).
Reports focus on the unresolved differences between the
two as dates for the final inking of the deal are
regularly announced, passed, and then rescheduled weeks
later. All the PA interlocutors, however, consistently
told us the differences are being worked out and the
alliance will be signed. Anura said such an alliance
was a matter of survival for both parties. The growing
electoral strength of the JVP has made them attractive
to the PA, especially in the latter's desire to regain
control of parliament. Still, snap elections following
any alliance do not seem likely. Bandaranaike opined
that his sister would call for general elections before
the scheduled April 2004 provincial council elections,
reasoning that the new PA-JVP alliance would win the
general election and, therefore, the provincial one as
well. Bandaranaike dismissed the risk of losing PA
supporters over such an alliance, stating his party
followers had greater disillusionment with the current
UNP government than with the JVP.

6. (C) Both Bandaranaike and Rajapakse claimed the JVP
had changed its opposition to the peace process,
although Bandaranaike indicated a presidential warning
to walk away from the proposed alliance may have helped
them change their minds. Calling the current JVP
"mainstream," Kadirgamar characterized the change in
dealing with the JVP as "democracy at work."


7. (C) Original differences between the parties related
to the JVP's aversion to the peace process and
unwillingness to accept any "devolution" of power to the
LTTE. At the moment, the sticking points seem to be
over the logistics of power sharing, both within the PA
and between the two parties. The JVP reportedly has
blamed political jockeying within the PA for the hold up
in finalizing the alliance. Rajapakse, for his part,
stated that his position in the party had not changed
and he remains senior vice president. When pressed on
the issue, he did all but admit that the president was
using the alliance to ensure a political future for her
brother, Anura Bandaranaike. (Note: Bandaranaike is
arguably vying with Rajapakse for control within the
president's Sri Lankan Freedom Party, the main faction
of the PA.)


8. (C) COMMENT: With the constant guessing as to the
PA's future moves, it was telling that all three
interlocutors had similar messages, perhaps indicating a
rough unity at the top. While roundly critical of the
Tigers, no one offered a different approach for working
with the group or suggested alternatives to the PM's
peace process efforts. Each interlocutor focused
negatively on the lack of consultation and congenial
working relationship between the president and prime
minister, instead of specific deficiencies in the
government. Rather than working on the poor
cohabitation relationship, the president may only be
waiting for the finalized alliance with the JVP to set
the stage for eventual election. For the moment,
however, the party appears committed to the peace
process and not poised to make any sudden changes within
in the government.


9. (U) Minimize considered.

CAMP