TAIWAN: CHINA'S NEW LEADERSHIP TO CONTINUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 003947

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/03/13
TAGS: PREL PGOV CH TW
SUBJECT: TAIWAN: CHINA'S NEW LEADERSHIP TO CONTINUE
"MODERATE" APPROACH

REF: BEIJING 3082

(U) CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR JON
ALOISI. REASONS: 1.5 (B/D).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) A PROMINENT PRC ANALYST TOLD US HE EXPECTS
BEIJING'S POLICY TOWARD TAIWAN TO SHOW CONTINUITY, WITH
THE NEW LEADERSHIP CONTINUING TO PURSUE A RELATIVELY
MODERATE APPROACH FOCUSED ON DEVELOPING ECONOMIC AND
OTHER UNOFFICIAL LINKS. OUR CONTACT SUGGESTED THAT THE
IMPORTANCE OF HU JINTAO'S MARCH 11 SPEECH TO THE NPC
TAIWAN DELEGATION WAS THE WAY HE PACKAGED TOGETHER A
NUMBER OF MODERATE POINTS, EACH OF WHICH HAD BEEN MADE
BEFORE BUT SEPARATELY RATHER THAN TOGETHER. BASED ON
HIS ANALYSIS OF TAIWAN'S POLITICAL DYNAMICS, THE ANALYST
WAS PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE NEAR-TERM PROSPECTS FOR
OPENING DIRECT CROSS-STRAIT TRANSPORTATION LINKS. HIS
THINKING CLOSELY TRACKS WITH THAT OF OTHER KNOWLEDGEABLE
EMBASSY CONTACTS. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) GUO ZHENYUAN, SENIOR RESEARCH FELLOW AT THE MFA-
AFFILIATED CHINA INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES,
RECENTLY DISCUSSED WITH US CROSS-STRAIT DEVELOPMENTS,
INCLUDING THE TAIWAN POLICY OF BEIJING'S NEW LEADERSHIP.
GIVEN PRC POLITICAL DYNAMICS, GUO EXPLAINED, THERE WILL
BE A HIGH DEGREE OF CONTINUITY IN POLICY TOWARD TAIWAN
DESPITE THE CHANGE IN LEADERSHIP. IN ONE SENSE, PARTY
GENERAL SECRETARY HU JINTAO'S MARCH 11 "IMPORTANT
SPEECH" ON TAIWAN POLICY TO THE NATIONAL PEOPLE'S
CONGRESS "TAIWAN DELEGATION" CONTAINED NOTHING NEW, GUO
SAID. EACH OF THE POINTS MADE BY HU HAS BEEN STATED
SEPARATELY IN THE PAST BY VARIOUS CHINESE LEADERS AND
OFFICIALS. WHAT IS SPECIAL ABOUT HU'S MARCH 11 REMARKS,
GUO STRESSED, IS THE WAY HE PACKAGED TOGETHER FOR THE
FIRST TIME WHAT ARE BEING CALLED THE "FOUR POINTS" AND
"THREE WHATEVERS" OF HIS TAIWAN POLICY.


3. (U) ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS, DURING HIS MARCH 11
REMARKS HU JINTAO DISCUSSED "TAIWAN WORK UNDER THE NEW
CIRCUMSTANCES." HU'S "FOUR POINTS" ARE:

-- ALWAYS ADHERE TO THE ONE-CHINA PRINCIPLE;

-- SPARE NO EFFORTS TO PROMOTE ECONOMIC AND CULTURAL
EXCHANGES ACROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT;

-- FURTHER IMPLEMENT THE PRINCIPLE OF PLACING HOPES ON
THE TAIWAN PEOPLE; AND,

-- UNITE COMPATRIOTS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE TAIWAN STRAIT
TO JOINTLY PUSH FORWARD THE GREAT REJUVENATION OF THE
CHINESE NATION.

ACCORDING TO HU'S "THREE WHATEVERS," BEIJING SHOULD
SPARE NO EFFORT IN DOING WHATEVER BENEFITS:

-- THE INTERESTS OF THE TAIWAN PEOPLE;

-- THE UNIFICATION OF THE MOTHERLAND; AND,

-- THE "GREAT REJUVENATION" OF THE CHINESE NATION.


4. (C) IN HIS FIRST MAJOR STATEMENT ON TAIWAN POLICY,
HU CLOSELY FOLLOWED AND ENDORSED THE LINE SET BY JIANG
ZEMIN, BUT ALSO PUT HIS PERSONAL STAMP ON POLICY BY
PACKAGING HIS MESSAGE IN A NEW WAY. CHINESE MEDIA
CHARACTERIZED HU'S REMARKS AS MODERATE AND CONCILIATORY,
FOCUSING ON POSITIVE THEMES SUCH AS INCREASING ECONOMIC
AND CULTURAL EXCHANGES, HELPING TAIWAN INVESTORS,
PROMOTING DIRECT TRANSPORTATION LINKS, AND EXCHANGING
VIEWS WITH PARTIES AND PERSONALITIES IN VARIOUS CIRCLES
FROM TAIWAN. ACCORDING TO GUO, THE MODERATION EVIDENT
IN HU'S REMARKS WAS A GOODWILL GESTURE TO TAIWAN. IN
ONE PHRASE EMPHASIZING THE SHARED INTERESTS OF TAIWAN
AND THE MAINLAND, HU STATED THAT "CHINA BELONGS TO
COMPATRIOTS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE STRAIT AND IS OUR
COMMON HOMELAND." PREMIER WEN JIABAO ECHOED THE SAME
THEME IN HIS MARCH 19 PRESS CONFERENCE (REFTEL),QUOTING
A POEM IN WHICH A DECEASED KMT VETERAN HAD DESCRIBED HIS
LONGING FOR HIS HOMETOWN ON THE MAINLAND.


5. (C) GUO ACKNOWLEDGED OUR OBSERVATION THAT HU JINTAO
NOW APPEARS TO BE IN CHARGE OF TAIWAN POLICY AND THAT
ZENG QINGHONG ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A PROMINENT ROLE. GUO
VOLUNTEERED THAT JIANG ZEMIN IS STILL INFLUENTIAL ON THE
ISSUE. WHEN ASKED ABOUT OFFICIALS BELOW THE TOP
LEADERSHIP INVOLVED IN TAIWAN AFFAIRS, GUO CITED STATE
COUNCIL TAIWAN AFFAIRS OFFICE (TAO) DIRECTOR CHEN
YUNLIN, ADDING THAT HE HAD NOT HEARD OF ANY CHANGES
BEING MADE IN THE TAO LINEUP. COMMENT: GUO'S REMARKS
TRACK GENERALLY WITH RECENT PRESS REPORTS THAT SUGGEST
HU JINTAO AND ZENG QINGHONG HAVE SUCCEEDED JIANG ZEMIN
AND QIAN QICHEN AS DIRECTOR AND DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF THE
PARTY CENTRAL COMMITTEE'S TAIWAN AFFAIRS LEADING GROUP.
OTHER KNOWLEDGEABLE EMBASSY CONTACTS ALSO AGREE ON THIS
LINEUP. END COMMENT.


6. (C) GUO WAS PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR A
BREAKTHROUGH ON THE OPENING OF DIRECT CROSS-STRAIT
TRANSPORTATION LINKS PRIOR TO THE MARCH 2004 TAIWAN
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. ACCORDING TO GUO'S ANALYSIS,
CHEN SHUI-BIAN IS UNLIKELY TO OPEN DIRECT LINKS AT THIS
TIME BECAUSE HE CALCULATES THE MOVE WOULD COST HIM
POLITICAL SUPPORT FROM "INDEPENDENCE FUNDAMENTALISTS,"
WHILE CREDIT WOULD GO TO OPPOSITION POLITICIANS RATHER
THAN HIMSELF. GUO SUGGESTED THAT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY
TO PREDICT ELECTION TRENDS AND THAT, AS INCUMBENT
PRESIDENT, CHEN SHUI-BIAN IS STRONGER POLITICALLY THAN
IN 2000. IF THE LIEN/SOONG TICKET WINS, GUO PREDICTED,
CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS WOULD BE MORE STABLE BECAUSE LIEN
WOULD BE MORE POSITIVE TOWARD DIRECT LINKS. GUO ALSO
STATED THAT LIEN "ACCEPTS" THE 1992 CONSENSUS ON ONE
CHINA AND PREDICTS HE WOULD NOT, IF ELECTED, SUGGEST
COMPETING CONSTRUCTS SUCH AS "ONE COUNTRY ON EACH SIDE."

COMMENT
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7. (C) THE NEW CHINESE LEADERSHIP WANTS TO KEEP THE
CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONSHIP ON ITS CURRENT RELATIVELY
STABLE COURSE, HOPING THAT ECONOMIC AND OTHER UNOFFICIAL
LINKS WILL WORK TO BRING THE TWO SIDES TOGETHER. RECENT
CONCRETE SIGNS OF A RELATIVELY POSITIVE APPROACH BY
BEIJING INCLUDE ITS APPROVAL FOR TAIWAN AIRLINES TO FLY
THROUGH PRC AIRSPACE DURING THE IRAQ WAR AND THE PLA'S
PUBLIC ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF THE POSSIBILITY OF WITHDRAWING
MISSILES FROM AREAS OPPOSITE TAIWAN. DESPITE ITS
RELATIVELY POSITIVE APPROACH, BEIJING REMAINS "VIGILANT"
TO TRY TO HEAD OFF POSSIBLE MOVES BY TAIWAN THAT COULD
"FORCE" IT TO REACT IN WAYS LIKELY TO HAVE DAMAGING SIDE
EFFECTS. SPECIFIC PRC CONCERNS INCLUDE "BREAKTHROUGHS"
BY TAIWAN IN MILITARY RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES
AND U.S. VISITS BY SENIOR TAIWAN LEADERS. CURRENT
CRITICISM OF TAIWAN LEADERS OVER THE PRC'S MISHANDLING
OF SARS COULD ALSO SPARK A NEGATIVE REACTION FROM
BEIJING, ESPECIALLY IF MAINLAND CRITICS PICK UP THE
CALL.

RANDT