Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03ANKARA6857
2003-11-04 07:10:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ankara
Cable title:  

THE VIEW FROM SOUTHEASTERN TURKEY: PART ONE

Tags:  PGOV PREL PTER PHUM PINR KNNP TU 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 006857 

SIPDIS


DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE, INR


E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PHUM PINR KNNP TU
SUBJECT: THE VIEW FROM SOUTHEASTERN TURKEY: PART ONE


REF: A. ANKARA 6163

B. ANKARA 6140

C. ANKARA 5566


CLASSIFIED BY W.S. REID III, PO AMCON ADANA, E.O. 12958,
REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D)


C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 006857

SIPDIS


DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE, INR


E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PHUM PINR KNNP TU
SUBJECT: THE VIEW FROM SOUTHEASTERN TURKEY: PART ONE


REF: A. ANKARA 6163

B. ANKARA 6140

C. ANKARA 5566


CLASSIFIED BY W.S. REID III, PO AMCON ADANA, E.O. 12958,
REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D)



1. (C) SUMMARY: THIS IS THE FIRST OF THREE MESSAGES ABOUT
THE AMCON ADANA REPORTING TEAM VISIT TO SOUTHEASTERN TURKEY
FROM SEPTEMBER 14-26. REFTELS REPORT SOME ASPECTS OF THIS
TRIP. THE REGION'S KURDISH POPULATION WAS DISTRUSTFUL OF
STATE
INITIATIVES; SAW THE "RETURN TO HOME" LAW AS
INDISTINGUISHABLE
FROM SIMILAR FAILED EFFORTS IN THE PAST AND EMPHASIZED THAT
IMPLEMENTATION OF NEW REFORMS FELL FAR SHORT OF ENACTED
LEGISLATION. THEY ALSO HOPED THAT THE U.S. WOULD SUPPORT
THE KURDISH CAUSE: GENERAL AMNESTY FOR PKK/KADEK;
IMPLEMENTATION
OF THE COPENHAGEN CRITERIA; AND TURKISH AND EU ECONOMIC AND
PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION. MANY
CONTACTS
OPPOSED SENDING TURKISH TROOPS IRAQ, WERE SKEPTICAL OF
TURKEY'S
IRAQ AGENDA, AND PROBED TEAM FOR U.S. INTENTIONS VIS-A-VIS
PKK/KADEK IN NORTHERN IRAQ. END SUMMARY.


ELAZIG - CALM BEFORE THE STORM?



2. (SBU) ELAZIG WAS QUIET, FOCUSING ON MINING,QUARRIES AND
TOURISM
AT HARPUT AND NEARBY NEMRUT DAG. HOWEVER, LOCAL BUSINESS
LEADERS
WORRIED THE PKK/KADEK WOULD GO ON OFFENSIVE AFTER THE END OF
ITS UNILATERAL CEASEFIRE. HUMAN RIGHTS OFFICIALS CRITICIZED
THE
U.S. FOR "OCCUPYING IRAQ" AND CLAIMED THAT LOCAL JANDARMA
WERE BEATING
AND ARRESTING FAMILIES FROM ELAZIG WHO ATTENDED THE BURIALS
OF
DHKP-C MEMBERS IN NEIGHBORING BINGOL. THE HRA SAID THAT
ATTORNEY
ACCESS TO DETAINEES WAS NOT A PROBLEM IN ELAZIG. THE
BUSTLING
CONSTRUCTION SECTOR WAS VERY INTERESTED IN DOING
RECONSTRUCTION
BUSINESS IN IRAQ, EXPORTING MARBLE TO THE EU AND U.S., AND
SEEKING
FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN LOCAL MINING FOR CHROME, GOLD,
COPPER,MARBLE
AND PLATINUM.



3. (C) A LOCAL TRIBAL CHIEFTAIN, WHO HAS BEEN LAUDED BY THE
POPE
FOR HIS LOCAL PEACE-BUILDING AND TRIBAL DISPUTE RESOLUTION,
SAID

THAT HE WAS ENCOURAGING THE SEVEN TRIBES THAT FOLLOW HIM TO
SUPPORT
THE TRUE PATH PARTY (DYP),NOT DEHAP, IN A BID TO "TURN AWAY
FROM
SUPPORTING VIOLENCE AND CHOOSING PEACE," BUT COMMENTED THAT
"THE
STATE IS LEAVING NO ROOM FOR A MIDDLE PEACEFUL WAY IN THE
REGION."
"IT'S FORCEFUL ATTITUDE," HE EXPLAINED, "PUSHES PEOPLE TOWARD
THE
GUERRILLAS AND DEHAP OR PRESSURES THEM INTO FORCED
COMPLIANCE
WHICH THEY RESENT. THEY FEEL POWERLESS AND DESPERATE ,AND
THIS IS
ALIENATING THE YOUNG PEOPLE OF THE REGION."


TUNCELI - BEING KURDISH AND ALEVI IS BOTTOM OF THE BARREL



4. (C) THE TUNCELI SUB-GOVERNOR REFLECTED ON THE RECENT
ATTACK ON
GOVERNOR, WHO HE SAID "IS NOT REGULARLY SEEING VISITORS NOW."
HE
NOTED THAT, OTHER THAN THE ATTACK, "THINGS ARE CALM AND THE
ELECTRICITY IS FLOWING TO THE NATIONAL ELECTRIC GRID,"
HIGHLIGHTING
WHAT HE APPARENTLY CONSIDERED TUNCELI'S CHIEF CONTRIBUTION TO
NATIONAL PROSPERITY - HYDROELECTRIC POWER.
5.(C) IN A REMINDER OF THE GOT'S CONTINUING SECURITY CONCERNS
IN TUNCELI, TWO AH-1 COBRAS AND UH-1 SAT ON A PAD NEXT TO THE
GOVERNOR'S OFFICE ON SEPT. 15-16. THE TWO COBRAS WERE LINKED
TO
STARTER CARTS AND ARMED WITH ROCKET PODS. ON BOTH DAYS THE
UH-1
FLEW LOW OVER SURROUNDING HILLS. LOCAL LEADERS, INCLUDING
THE CHP
MAYOR, BLAMED THE LACK OF GOT INVESTMENT IN THE REGION ON GOT
INDIFFERENCE TO THE PROVINCE'S ALEVI POPULATION AND HISTORY
OF KADEK
AND DHKP-C OPERATIONS. THE MAYOR OUTLINED REPEATED FAILED
EFFORTS
TO RECEIVE HOUSING AND EDUCATION INVESTMENT, DESPITE THREE
PLANS
SUBMITTED TO TWO PRIME MINISTERS AND PRESIDENT SEZER. LOCAL
ALEVI
CONTACTS SAID THEY WERE ALIENATED BY PM ERDOGAN'S COMMENTS
MARGINALIZING ALEVI PRACTICES AS CULTURE, NOT RELIGION. THEY
SAID
THAT THEIR ALIENATION AND ISOLATION HAD NOT CHANGED THEIR
POLITICAL
ORIENTATION (I.E.,SHIFT AWAY FROM CHP VOTING),BUT SAID THAT
THEY
WOULD HOPE THAT A FUTURE EU TURKEY WOULD END ITS STATE AID TO
MOSQUES
AND ORGANIZED RELIGION, DEVOTING MONEY INSTEAD TO SCHOOLS AND
INFRASTRUCTURE.



6. (SBU) TUNCELI BUSINESS PEOPLE HOPED TO LURE BACK BIG GAME
HUNTERS FROM THE U.S. AND AUSTRALIA WHO USED TO COME IN THE
1960-70'S TO HUNT BIGHORN SHEEP AND WILD BOAR, AND FISH FOR
RENOWNED RED SPECKLED TROUT. THESE HOPES WERE STILL HAMPERED
BY THE LACK OF HOTEL INFRASTRUCTURE AND QUESTIONABLE SECURITY
IN HUNTING AREAS.


BINGOL - EARTHQUAKE FAULT LINES, POLITICAL SPLITS



7. (SBU) THERE WERE STILL AT LEAST 10,000 PEOPLE IN TENTS AND
MAKESHIFT DWELLINGS IN BINGOL AND ITS SURROUNDING AREAS DUE
TO
THE SPRING 2003 EARTHQUAKE. SHATTERED AND DAMAGED BUILDINGS
STRETCHED AS FAR AS THE EYE COULD SEE IN BOTH THE CITY AND
SURROUNDING VILLAGES. THE GOVERNOR'S OFFICE WAS STILL
STANDING,
BUT CRACKS WERE VISIBLE IN ALMOST EVERY WALL, EVEN IN THE
GOVERNOR'S OFFICE. THE BUILDING FORMERLY HOUSING THE
MAYOR'S
OFFICE WERE BEING DEMOLISHED BECAUSE ITS STRUCTURE WAS SO
DAMAGED
BY THE EARTHQUAKE. THE MAYOR STARTED OPERATING FROM A
PRE-FABRICATED
BUILDING IN AUGUST AFTER SEVERAL MONTHS OF OPERATING FROM A
TENT
OR FROM THE OPEN. WINTER COULD BRING MORE SERIOUS SUFFERING
AS
ONLY A FEW GOT-FINANCED SHOW HOUSING PROJECTS, USING RIGOROUS
POST-YALOVA BUILDING STANDARDS, WILL BE FINISHED BY FEBRUARY.


MUCH RE-BUILDING IS HAMPERED BY SKYROCKETING BUILDING
MATERIAL
PRICES AND CONTRACTOR PRICE-GOUGING.



8. (C) THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE WAS AS SHATTERED AND BLEAK AS
THE
PHYSICAL ONE. THE DEHAP MUNICIPALITY AND THE GOVERNOR'S
OFFICE
HAVE BEEN AT LOGGERHEADS SINCE THE EARTHQUAKE. STARTING WITH
THE
FIRST HOURS FOLLOWING THE EARTHQUAKE, THE GOT DEMONSTRATED
THAT
IT WAS DETERMINED TO ASSERT ITS CONTROL OVER THE POLITICAL
LANDSCAPE. IN EARLY CRISIS MEETINGS, THE GOVERNOR EXCLUDED
ALL
MUNICIPAL OFFICIALS, ACCORDING TO THE MAYOR, AND ORDERED
VOLUNTARY
RELIEF SUPPLIES FROM OTHER DEHAP MUNICIPALITIES IN
SOUTHEASTERN
TURKEY CONFISCATED. THE CONFISCATIONS, WHICH WERE CONFIRMED
BY
OTHER DEHAP MAYORS AND SUB-MAYORS, EXTENDED THE WOUNDS FELT
IN
BINGOL'S POLITICAL CIRCLES TO THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST REGION.
THE
GOVERNOR EXPLAINED TO PO THAT THESE STEPS REFLECTED HIS
ASSESSMENT
THAT KADEK AND DEHAP WERE SYNONYMOUS,THAT DEHAP WAS PURSUING
AN
AGENDA THAT THE LOCAL KURDISH POPULACE DID NOT SUPPORT, AND
THAT
HE WAS DETERMINED TO DENY DEHAP/KADEK ANY OPPORTUNITY TO
EXPLOIT
THE DISASTER.



9. (C) BINGOL POLITICAL CIRCLES WERE DEEPLY ALIENATED, AND
LOCAL
BUSINESS LEADERS EXPECTED THAT LOCAL DISENCHANTMENT WITH THE
BITTER MUNICIPAL-GOVERNORATE STANDOFF WOULD LEAD TO THE
ELECTION
OF A NON-DEHAP, INDEPENDENT LOCAL CANDIDATE WHO IS FAVORABLY
VIEWED IN REGIONAL TRIBAL POLITICS. THE SAME LEADERS WARNED
THAT THE POLARIZATION THIS STANDOFF FOSTERED COULD PROVE
FERTILE
GROUND FOR PKK/KADEK TO EXPLOIT. ELAZIG TRIBAL CONTACTS WITH
BINGOL FAMILY TIES REPORTED INCREASED OPEN KADEK MOVEMENT INTO
BINGOL'S MOUNTAIN VILLAGES IN THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER.



10. (C) ON SEPTEMBER 16 REPORTING TEAM SAW HEAVY JANDARMA
PATROLLING IN BINGOL PROVINCE, INCLUDING A COMPANY-STRENGTH J
ANDARMA PATROL BETWEEN BINGOL CITY AND THE PROVINCIAL BORDER
WITH NEIGHBORING MUS PROVINCE. THERE ALSO WERE AT LEAST
THREE
JANDARMA APCS IN BINGOL CITY AS WELL AS OVER 25 JANDARMA
ROVERS
LOADED WITH TROOPS IN FIELD UNIFORMS WITH NON-GARRISON
EQUIPMENT,
AND CAMOUFLAGED FACES.


MUS - A NEW MIDDLE EAST BREADBASKET, ANKARA HOPES



11. (SBU) MUS IS LARGE FLAT PLAIN WHICH THE GOT HOPES WILL
AGAIN BECOME THE BREADBASKET THAT IT WAS AT THE TURN OF THE
TWENTIETH CENTURY. NOW THAT TWO NEW DAMS PROMISE
BETTER-REGULATED
IRRIGATION AND INCREASED HYDRO-ELECTRIC RESOURCES AND THE
PROSPECT
OF RENEWED TRADE WITH IRAQ AND SYRIA IS ON THE HORIZON, THE
GOT,
ACCORDING TO THE GOVERNOR'S OFFICE, HOPES TO SEE NEW HERDS OF
MUS-BRED LIVESTOCK AND FEEDCROPS SUPPLYING THE BROADER MIDDLE
EAST REGION.



12. (C) LOCAL POLITICS SEEMED CALM AND NEITHER LOCAL CONTACTS
NOR GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED SIGNIFICANT SECURITY
PROBLEMS
IN THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS. THERE SEEMED TO BE AN EASY
CO-EXISTENCE BETWEEN GOVERNMENT AND LOCAL TRIBAL LEADERS
UNDERPINNING THIS RELATIVE CALM AND A MUTUAL INTEREST IN
BUILDING A BETTER GOVERNMENT-BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT MODEL.
A PRIVATELY-FINANCED, NEW EASTERN ANATOLIA PROGRAM (DAP)
"BUSINESS HOTEL" AND A RELATIVELY WELL-DEVELOPED REGIONAL
AIRPORT WERE EXAMPLES OF THIS NEW EFFORT, BUT THE LOCAL
MAYOR WARNED TEAM NOT TO READ TOO MUCH INTO THE EFFORTS
TO DATE. HE SAID THAT HE HAD FOCUSED ON MARKETING THE
NATURAL
TULIPS FROM MUS, REPUTEDLY WHERE THE OTTOMAN TULIP CRAZE
BEGAN,
TO INTERNATIONAL AUDIENCES, BUT RECEIVED LITTLE GOVERNMENT
HELP BECAUSE "I DO NOT HAVE A 'MADE IN ANKARA' STAMP ON MY
PROJECT LIKE THE CATTLE AND CORN PEOPLE."

13. (C) LOCAL BUSINESSMEN AND LAWYERS SAID THAT THE GOT AND
SEVERAL BIG FAMILIES WERE TALKING ABOUT EXPANDING LIVESTOCK
AND AGRI-BUSINESS, BUT LITTLE HAD MATERIALIZED, AND
GOVERNMENT
KNOWLEDGE OF AGRI-BUSINESS WAS POOR. ONE CONTACT SAID THAT
"THEY DECIDED TO BUILD THE DAMS FIRST AND NOW THEY HAVE
DECIDED
TO USE THE WATER TO FEED LIVESTOCK. WE'LL SEE; WE HAVE NOT
SEEN
THE DEMAND YET," HE CAUTIONED. LAWYERS IN TOWN NONETHELESS
SAID
THAT THE MOOD WAS POSITIVE AND EXPECTANT, AND THAT THERE WERE
FEW DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN LOCAL ETHNIC GROUPS AND THE GOT
APPARATUS. THERE WERE NO REPORTED PROBLEMS WITH LAWYER
ACCESS
TO DETAINEES, AND SEVERAL LAWYERS SAID THAT THERE HAD BEEN
SUCCESSFUL PETITIONS TO NAME LOCAL CHILDREN WITH TRADITIONAL
KURDISH NAMES, ALTHOUGH THEY NOTED THAT MOST FAMILIES STILL
SELF-CENSORED PROPOSALS TO USE POLITICALLY-ORIENTED KURDISH
NAMES.
EDELMAN