Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03ANKARA6613
2003-10-22 12:23:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ankara
Cable title:  

TURKEY: BAYKAL SET TO BE RE-ELECTED OPPOSITION CHP

Tags:  PREL PGOV TU 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

221223Z Oct 03
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 006613 

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: BAYKAL SET TO BE RE-ELECTED OPPOSITION CHP
CHAIRMAN


REF: ANKARA 5001


(U) Classified by Political Counselor John Kunstadter.
Reason: 1.5 (b,d).


C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 006613

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: BAYKAL SET TO BE RE-ELECTED OPPOSITION CHP
CHAIRMAN


REF: ANKARA 5001


(U) Classified by Political Counselor John Kunstadter.
Reason: 1.5 (b,d).



1. (C) Summary: With party delegates firmly in his grasp, CHP
leader Baykal is likely to be re-elected chairman at an Oct.
23-24 general convention. Although our contacts expect a
contentious atmosphere, they do not expect major changes to
the CHP administration. Former state minister Kemal Dervis
has been more vocal about having a greater say in party
matters, but our contacts suggest he has little support
within the party itself. While he may get a seat on the
central committee, Dervis is not likely to be given much room
for maneuver. End summary.



2. (C) Main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) will
hold its general convention Oct. 23-24, two days earlier than
originally planned. Our CHP contacts tell us that party
chairman Deniz Baykal moved the dates of the convention so
that he will be able to attend a socialist parties'
conference in Brazil, where Baykal will be a presenter.


--------------
Sound and Fury...
--------------



3. (C) CHP M.P.s across the board acknowledge that the
convention will be contentious because of the party's
flagging polling numbers, which have consistently shown
public support for the party at around 12 percent. CHP Vice
Chairman Sinan Yerlikaya -- a close Baykal advisor -- told us
Oct. 17 that he expects a lively open debate on the direction
of the party. In a meeting with us Oct. 21, senior CHP M.P.
Fuat Cay echoed Yerlikaya, admitting that there are many
dissatisfied long-time party officials from the local level,
who want Baykal to take an even harder public line against
the ruling AK Party. Cay said any party member will be
allowed to speak his mind during the convention's first day.
"This is why we are more democratic than other parties," he
averred with a straight face.



4. (C) Much of the expected cacophony centers around
rivalries among Baykal cronies and between the party
leadership and the grassroots. Cay said there is growing
opposition to a few senior figures in the party -- Vice
Chairman Mehmet Sevigen and M.P. Bulent Tanla among them --
who are perceived as being close to Baykal but not to the

party grassroots. Moreover, CHP member and former State
Minister Erol Cevikce -- who was once very close to Baykal --
told us Oct. 20 that CHP Secretary General Onder Sav is
leading a campaign to oust Esref Erdem, who is considered by
many CHP insiders as Baykal's most trusted advisor, from his
position as party Vice Chairman. Cevikce claimed Sav is
trying to set himself up as a potential successor to Baykal
should the party do poorly in the local elections, now
scheduled for March 28, 2004.



5. (C) A bigger concern for the CHP leadership, according to
our contacts, is the potential flare-up over how the party
will elect its assembly, which chooses the members of the
central committee that, in turn, sets party policy. Cay
explained that the delegates will vote on whether to use a
"block list" of assembly candidates or a "blanket list."
Baykal favors a block list, because it allows him to choose
exactly whom he wants in the party assembly. In a block
list, delegates have no choice but to except the party
leadership's recommendations. Perhaps as a first step in
billing himself as Baykal's successor, Sav openly opposes the
block list and favors the blanket list, which is a longer
list of assembly candidates, giving delegates the flexibility
to pick and choose their favorites. Cay, himself a Baykal
lackey, admitted that if the delegates oppose the block list,
the current CHP central committee will issue a "key" to the
blanket list, indicating which candidates the party
leadership prefers -- in effect undermining the more
democratic approach of the blanket list.


--------------
...Signifying Nothing?
--------------



6. (C) Despite the potential for a divisive convention, few
of our CHP contacts expect major changes to the senior party
leadership and none foresee -- at least for now -- a real
challenge to Baykal. According to our contacts, the three
other candidates for chairman -- Erol Tuncer, Cemal Ozdemir,
and Bedri Baykam -- lack any base of support within the
party. Our contacts point out that even a strong,
charismatic candidate would have a difficult time challenging
Baykal, because he controls most of the delegates. CHP M.P.
Necdet Budak -- a frequent critic of Baykal in meetings with
us -- explained to us Oct. 8 that the CHP leader had ensured
a victory by reaching down to the sub-provincial level to
install his supporters. Sub-provincial officials elect
provincial delegates, who in turn choose delegates to the
general convention. Budak said he expects some changes to
the party administration but nothing significant. "But you
never know," he added without much conviction.


--------------
Does Dervis Have a Chance?
--------------



7. (C) Former State Minister and CHP M.P. Kemal Dervis has
been making more noise about having a larger role in
determining the direction of the party. In a private meeting
with us Oct. 21, Dervis explained that he hopes to secure a
spot on the CHP central committee and bring with him an
unspecified number of like-minded M.P.s. (note: Dervis has
publicly and privately called for the transformation of CHP
into a more European-style social democratic party (reftel).
end note). Dervis told us that he has no plans to challenge
Baykal directly for the leadership of the party, claiming he
has too many personal constraints. He reiterated his recent
comments in the press that he disagrees with Baykal on a host
of issues but backed away from saying he will leave the party
if he does not get what he wants at the convention. He
denied persistent rumors that he is considering joining AK if
Baykal does not allow him a more high-profile role but
admitted, when pressed, that he does not know what he will do
in that event.



8. (C) Most of our contacts in the party are dismissive of
Dervis' chances at the convention. They admit that there is
a public expectation that Dervis will become more influential
-- an expectation that could land Dervis a spot on the
central committee -- but say he has little support within the
party itself. In fact, according to Cevikce, many blame
Dervis for the party's perceived electoral failure last
November. Cevikce said that Onur Oymen -- who is close to
Baykal and who has spewed the most anti-American rhetoric of
any of the CHP M.P.s -- has more support within the party
than Dervis. Yerlikaya added that he hopes Dervis leaves the
party after the convention. He is divisive, Yerlikaya said,
noting that Dervis joined CHP, not the other way around.


--------------
Comment: What's Next?
--------------



9. (C) Baykal is set to hang on to the CHP chairmanship.
Although a few new faces may enter the party's central
committee, any significant change to CHP policies is unlikely
-- even if Dervis does win a seat on the committee. CHP
insiders tell us Baykal -- firmly in control of the party
machine -- does not yet feel enough pressure to alter CHP's
course. Indeed, most of the edginess surrounding the
upcoming convention springs more from personal rivalry than
any dissatisfaction with the party's policies. However, our
contacts tell us that the true test for Baykal and CHP will
be local elections in March. Most speculate that if CHP does
poorly -- which they define as receiving less than the 19
percent of the vote the party received last November -- then
the exasperated grassroots are likely to push for an
extraordinary party congress to elect a new chairman.
Cevikce argued that Baykal is already maneuvering to head off
such an outcome. Baykal, he said, is bringing delegates to
the convention who are likely to win spots as mayors or on
municipal councils after the March local elections. In this
way, Baykal is attempting to create a cadre of delegates who
are indebted to him and would, therefore, protect him should
the party fall further.
EDELMAN