TURKEY: MORE FALLOUT FROM AK PARTY CONVENTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 006481

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2013
TAGS: PREL PINR PGOV TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: MORE FALLOUT FROM AK PARTY CONVENTION


REF: ANKARA 6447


(C) Classified by Deputy Political Counselor Charles O.
Blaha. Reason: 1.5 (b,d).



1. (C) Summary: As noted reftel, PM Erdogan emerged from the
Oct. 12 AK Party convention more firmly in control of the
party's administration. In changing almost half of the AK's
fifty-member Central Decision-Making and Administrative Board
(MKYK),Erdogan has provided some clues as to who in the
party is on the rise and who may be losing influence. Our
contacts maintain that the changes reflect Erdogan's efforts
to promote a pragmatic decision-making team. End Summary.


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Stars On the Rise
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2. (C) In the aftermath of the AK Party convention Oct. 12,
our AK contacts say that Justice Minister and GOT Spokesman
Cemil Cicek is now in a stronger position within the party.
Erdogan appointed Cicek as the convention's director of
events (Divan Baskani),a position that allowed Cicek to
administer the convention in its entirety. It also afforded
Cicek the opportunity to make the only speech that came after
Erdogan's acceptance speech, which our contacts say is an
indication of Erdogan's confidence in Cicek.



3. (C) AK M.P. Omer Celik won a seat on the Central
Decision-Making and Administrative Board (MKYK). Celik is a
long-time close advisor to Erdogan and occasionally drafts
speeches for the PM. In an Oct. 16 meeting, a well-placed AK
official in Istanbul municipality who has known Erdogan for
years described Celik as "Erdogan's man" and someone who
shares the PM's vision. The AK official asserted that
Celik's appointment reflects Erdogan's desire for pragmatism
in the AK administration. One AK deputy who is an
independent thinker and who has provided reliable insight in
the past explained to us recently that Erdogan is seeking
people -- like Celik -- who can offer a variety of opinions
and can discuss those opinions openly without resorting to
rhetorical brinkmanship, as was the case with former Deputy
PM Yalcinbayir.


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Falling Stars?
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4. (C) Our contacts also note that several well-known AK
figures clearly came away losers, including Deputy PM and FM
Gul, who seemed somber throughout the convention.
Originally, our contacts say that Gul had been slated to
preside over the convention. However, Erdogan did not want
to give Gul (long considered a rival to the PM) the spotlight
and the opportunity to address the party delegates. Our
contacts also claim that Gul has not been involved in AK's
internal affairs for some time now.



5. (C) Reftel noted that DefMin Vecdi Gonul was left out of
the MKYK largely because the DefMin did not have the time to
devote to business. However, a journalist with close ties to
AK told us Oct. 15 that Erdogan believes Gonul is too close
to the military. The journalist argued that while Erdogan,
in one sense, sees this as a liability, the PM may be
planning to appoint Gonul Education Minister down the road
(Note: Many of our AK contacts tell us that Erdogan is
planning a cabinet shuffle around the new year. Despite his
apparent diminished position within the party, Gonul would
remain DefMin until a shuffle. End Note). In appointing
Gonul, who is seen as someone with whom the military can
work, as Education Minister, Erdogan hopes to mollify the
military's concerns about AK's education reform proposals,
which AK plans to pursue slowly over the next few months.



6. (C) Also notable among the apparent losers, according to
our contacts, is AK M.P. Egemen Bagis, who was left off the
MKYK. Bagis frequently serves as Erdogan's interpreter in
meetings with English-speakers and describes himself as the
PM's foreign policy advisor. He also serves as Chairman of
Parliament's Turkish-US Friendship Group.
EDELMAN