TURKEY: AK PARTY CONGRESS REAFFIRMS PM ERDOGAN'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 006447

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: AK PARTY CONGRESS REAFFIRMS PM ERDOGAN'S
HOLD ON PARTY


(U) Classified by Ambassador Eric Edelman. Reason: 1.5 (b,d).



1. (C) Summary: PM Erdogan emerged from the ruling AK Party's
Oct. 12 well-organized congress more in control of his party.
In his acceptance speech, Erdogan focused primarily on AK's
commitment to achieving a just, democratic system in Turkey.
On Iraq, he reiterated the GOT's commitment to send troops as
part of a stabilization force. On Cyprus, Erdogan asserted
that Turkey cannot abandon the Annan Plan but said both sides
have to be prepared to make concessions. Erdogan's changes
to the party administration, our contacts say, bring in new
faces who are closer to the PM, and perhaps more modern in
their outlook. End summary.


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No Contest: Erdogan Re-Elected AK Chairman
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2. (C) At its first general convention on Oct. 12, which
PolCouns attended, ruling AK Party re-elected PM Erdogan --
the only candidate for party chairman. Out of a total of
1463 party delegates, 1358 voted for Erdogan; the remainder,
according to our contacts, were no-shows at the convention.


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Atmospherics
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3. (C) The AK Party convention was the most well-organized
and scripted party congress we have seen recently, conveying
a sense of discipline and order rarely present at Turkish
political party gatherings. In contrast to the
ultra-nationalist MHP's convention held on the same day
(septel),for example, the proceedings began precisely on
schedule and continued without a hitch. Security was tight
but not intimidating. The press was cordoned off into a
discreet area, whereas at other conventions they are often
allowed to roam the floor.



4. (C) With a long list of foreign visitors in attendance and
a live TV audience watching, AK was careful to project the
image of a modern, democratic political party. Erdogan
arrived without the usual accompaniment of handlers and sat
with party founders and members of the cabinet -- in contrast
to other parties' conventions where the chairman is often
afforded a plush chair above his party subordinates. Men and
women -- some headscarved, some not -- sat together in the
audience.


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Erdogan's Vision
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5. (C) After being re-elected Chairman, Erdogan gave a
one-hour, forty-minute speech, which focused primarily on the
need for a new era of democracy in Turkey and only briefly
touched on foreign policy. He laid out what he sees as an
Anatolian vision of democracy that: 1) respects the rights of
the individual in its interaction with the State; 2) is just
and fair to everyone; and 3) allows Turkish citizens
regardless of background to be themselves. While
underscoring that AK is against the politics of polarization,
Erdogan said that the path to full democratization will not
be easy, but the GOT is determined to see it through.
Erdogan, who seemed to hold the attention of the audience
throughout the speech, repeatedly made use of religious
allusions, presumably to appeal to the common Turk's sense of
values, but he did not do so in a heavy-handed way.



6. (C) On foreign policy, Erdogan concentrated on Iraq,
Cyprus, and a nebulous concept that Erdogan described as
"strategic depth" -- although he did not elaborate on the
latter. On Iraq, Erdogan stressed that the GOT is prepared
to send troops to Iraq as part of a stabilization force. In
doing so, Erdogan focused on what AK sees as Turkey's duty
and responsibility to participate (Comment: This part of
Erdogan's speech drew some applause from party delegates, who
largely remained silent through the rest of the speech. End
Comment). On Cyprus, he said that the latest Annan plan
cannot be rejected, nevertheless, both sides have to be
prepared to make concessions.


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Changes to Party Administration
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7. (C) The delegates approved the list of 50 Central Decision
Making and Administrative Board (MKYK) members submitted by
Erdogan. Notably, Erdogan excluded Defense Minister Vecdi
Gonul, former Deputy PM Ertugrul Yalcinbayir, and Parliament
Human Rights committee MP Ersonmez Yarbay, a close Embassy
contact. Erdogan increased the number of women on the MKYK
to 10 -- up from five -- which Erdogan had promised prior to
the convention (Note: seven of the 10 women do not wear
headscarves. End Note). Erdogan also included the AK
provincial chairmen from Ankara and Istanbul -- a nod to the
party grassroots.


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Comment
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8. (C) AK's sober congress reaffirmed Erdogan's control over
the party -- both its grassroots and its decision-making
mechanisms. FM Gul, who we hear from contacts across the
board is a political rival to the PM, sat stoically
throughout the proceedings. On Erdogan's speech, we
understand that "strategic depth" is a turn of phrase used by
Ahmet Davutoglu -- an Erdogan advisor attached to the Prime
Ministry -- to describe a multi-directional foreign policy
that is less dependent on the U.S. and that seeks to enhance
relations with the Islamic world, Russia, China, and to a
degree with the EU. A journalist for Aksam newspaper with
close ties to the AK inner circle argued that Erdogan has not
fully digested the idea and would, in any case, not see it as
a rejection of Turkey's partnership with the U.S.



9. (C) Our contacts -- including a leading national security
analyst, the Aksam journalist, and AK Ankara chief and MKYK
member Nurettin Akman -- confirm press reports that, in
re-shaping the MKYK, Erdogan has begun the process of
decreasing the influence of the Islamist Milli Gorus
foundation, which they say Erdogan sees as exploiting
religion for personal material gain. In doing so, they say
Erdogan is attempting to bring in a more modern,
forward-thinking, and responsive cast that is closer to the
PM and the AK Party decision-making inner circle. The Aksam
journalist argued that leaving Gonul off the MKYK will
actually strengthen his position as a Minister, because Gonul
will no longer have to devote his energy to party business.
Akman told poloff Oct. 14 that Gonul simply did not have
enough time to devote to party affairs. Yalcinbayir is
considered a chronic naysayer by AK insiders. Meanwhile,
Yarbay -- a thoughtful observer -- may have dug his own grave
recently by criticizing Erdogan for authoritarian tendencies,
a useful warning but one made too bluntly in the press, our
contacts say.
EDELMAN