AK GOVERNMENT CONFIDENT PARLIAMENT WILL APPROVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 006272

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS TU IZ
SUBJECT: AK GOVERNMENT CONFIDENT PARLIAMENT WILL APPROVE
IRAQ TROOP DEPLOYMENT ON OCTOBER 7


REF: A. ANKARA 6208

B. ANKARA 6160


(U) Classified by DCM Robert Deutsch, E. O. 12958, reasons
1.5 (b) and (d).



1. (C) Summary: Turkey's cabinet-equivalent Council of
Ministers adopted and sent to the Parliament on October 6 a
motion for the dispatch of Turkish troops to Iraq. Ruling
Justice and Development (AK) Party parliamentarians and even
one opposition parliamentarian expressed confidence the
measure would be approved on October 7. The motion sets a
renewable one-year limit on the deployment but does not
specify the deployment date, number of troops or deployment
location, all of which will be left for the Turkish military
to discuss with the U.S. End Summary.


Council of Ministers Sends Measure to Parliament



2. (U) On October 6, Turkey's Council of Ministers approved
and sent to Parliament a motion for "permission" to send
troops to Iraq. AK government spokesman Cemil Cicek said
Parliament would probably vote on the motion on October 7.
The motion sets a renewable one-year limit to the deployment
but does not specify the deployment date, number of troops or
deployment location.


PM's Parliamentary Advisors Confident



3. (C) AK parliamentarians Saban Disli and Egemen Bagis,
both foreign policy advisors to PM Erdogan expressed "100%
confidence" the measure would pass. They noted that the
"permission" was flexible and did not require approval by
President Sezer, who recently reiterated his opposition to
the deployment (ref A). Other AK-connected political
advisors and even one opposition People's Republican Party
(CHP) deputy also said they believed the measure would pass.



4. (C) Disli and Bagis said PM Erdogan would be present for
the vote, which would be conducted in a "closed session, open
voting" format, meaning that AK parliamentarians who voted to
oppose the measure would have to do so facing Erdogan. Bagis
estimated 30 AK parliamentarians would vote no, giving the AK
a comfortable majority.



5. (C) Grassroots opinion appears ready to support the
deployment if the AK government leads. Embassy Political
Counselor, currently traveling in Turkey's northeastern
provinces of Artvin and Rize, found that local AK party
organizations had public backing on the troop issue, similar
to central Anatolian provinces Konya and Karaman (ref B).


Details to Be Handed Over to Military



6. (C) Comment: Disli and Bagis said decisions about the
number of troops, their location, the date of deployment, and
other details would be "handed over to the military" and
bureaucracy to discuss with the U.S. since they are "purely
military things." Even if the measure is approved, we
believe a lot of hard work remains before the deployment
becomes reality. End Comment.



7. (U) Baghdad minimize considered.


EDELMAN