IRAQ: FOLLOW-UP READOUT ON AK PARTY CHAIRMAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 000626

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS TU IZ
SUBJECT: IRAQ: FOLLOW-UP READOUT ON AK PARTY CHAIRMAN
ERDOGAN'S VIEWS

(U) Classified by Ambassador W.R. Pearson; reasons: 1.5 (b,d).



1. (C) In Jan. 20 follow-up to Jan. 19 Ambassador-AK leader
Erdogan meeting, Erdogan foreign policy advisor Bagis told us:


--Erdogan understood Ambassador's message that it's up to him
(Erdogan) to make the case on Iraq to the Turkish public and
parliament.


--One factor holding Erdogan back from more active commitment
to get parliament and public on board is his skepticism at
U.S. evidence. Dec. 10 briefing Erdogan received in
Washington didn't convince him, given that it lacked hard,
current information on Iraq's WMD stocks and production
capacity. Erdogan is telling his advisors he needs better
evidence regarding current threat and extent of Saddam's
stocks and production capacity. Bagis asked whether the USG
could provide a more detailed briefing with current
information.


--Erdogan is also disconcerted by what he perceived to be too
cautious an answer from President Bush at their Dec. 10 White
House meeting in response to Erdogan's question how the U.S.
would defend Turkey if attacked by Saddam. Erdogan asks
whether the U.S. in position to offer protection, e.g.,
large-scale supplies of gas masks?


--As a follow on to Erdogan's complaint that all the U.S.
talks about is mitigation of operation-related economic
damages and his desire that we discuss the benefits to Turkey
from an operation, Bagis asked whether we can be more
concrete regarding commercial and financial benefits accruing
to Turkey from a regime change.


--Erdogan was dismayed that we had not more forcefully
disassociated the Embassy/USG from Ambassador's immediate
predecessor's public remarks in Turkey critical of Turkey's
delay on Iraq decision-making. We reiterated that there has
been some frustration with lack of Turkish decisions but
noted that the Embassy had issued a statement underscoring
categorically that the former ambassador does not represent
the USG, and asked Bagis to relay this to Erdogan. (Note: we
have heard similar expressions of concern at these remarks
from other AK party officials. End note.)


--AK party and government want us to understand that the
Turkish General Staff is not being as straightforward on Iraq
as it tells us it is. "TGS has set a trap for AK, putting
itself in a win-win situation," he concluded with resignation
and frustration.



2. (C) Bagis doesn't know whether Erdogan will run in repeat
of general elections in Siirt province. Bagis has family
ties in Siirt and considers the people from Siirt to be a
treacherous lot, still run by the feudal landlords whose only
criterion is payoffs, which Erdogan isn't willing to indulge
in. However, asking all three deputies from Rize to resign
to arrange by-election there would be awkward for Tayyip, who
never wants to say no to anyone or cross them. Bagis
estimated that if Erdogan does run in Siirt on March 9, it
will take up to mid-April to become P.M., given built-in
procedural delays.


PEARSON