TURKEY: MORE ON DEHAP PLAN TO VISIT PKK/KADEK IN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 004856

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/30/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: MORE ON DEHAP PLAN TO VISIT PKK/KADEK IN
IRAQ


REF: ANKARA 4848


(U) Classified by Charge d'Affaires a.i. Robert S. Deutsch.
Reason:1.5(b)(d)



1. (C) July 31, following delivery of reftel points to DEHAP
regarding the party's planned Aug. 4 delegation to PKK/KADEK
members in northern Iraq, Diyarbakir Mayor Feridun Celik, a
delegation leader, called in Ankara requesting a meeting.
(Note: as reported reftel, GOT officials had told us the
delegation was already in Iraq. End note).



2. (S) With Celik at the venue were two influential Kurds: 1)
Ihsan Arslan (strictly protect throughout),an AK Party
Diyarbakir M.P. and Kurdish activist close to P.M. Erdogan.
Arslan is also the de facto right-hand man of AK Vice
Chairman Firat on Kurdish issues; and 2) an independent
Kurdish source with excellent access to both Kurdish
nationalist and Islamic circles.



3. (S) A/Polcouns reiterated reftel points to Celik, who
acknowledged them and offered the following:


-- The GOT's current reintegration law is like previous
versions and will not bring significant numbers of PKK/KADEK
members down from the mountains (note: a view shared by
Kurdish and other observers across the political spectrum.
End note);


-- The law comes in the context of rising tensions in the
Kurdish southeast. The PKK/KADEK is preparing to go on the
offensive beginning September 1 unless the situation changes;


-- Consequently, the situation "is not as simple as just
passing a law calling for them (PKK/KADEK) to submit." DEHAP
has legitimate political -- vice "propaganda" -- reasons for
making the trip: promoting peace and heading off a return to
violence. The party's constituents are increasingly
concerned about the situation and are pressing for action by
DEHAP;


-- DEHAP is fully aware that the elements of the Turkish
State could use the trip to retaliate against the party. In
this regard, however, Celik noted that: 1) DEHAP is already
facing threat of closure; 2) "They (Turkish authorities)
already have Ocalan (incarcerated PKK leader),which means
they already have enough information" to shut DEHAP down at
any time; 3) DEHAP is convinced that it will not be allowed
to stand in the upcoming nationwide, local elections
(currently scheduled for spring 2004); DEHAP members are used
to having their parties shut down and going to jail.


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Arslan: Could Be a Good Idea
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4. (S) Arslan (strictly protect) offered that the DEHAP trip
might have a positive effect, though it entails risks. It
may serve as a pretext for Turkish State pressure on DEHAP
that could also poison the general atmosphere in Turkey.
Celik interjected to A/Polcouns that senior AK members,
including Firat, had responded to DEHAP in a similarly
positive way regarding the planned delegation. Arslan added
that the AK Government would never formally or publicly
endorse such a plan; nevertheless, he agreed to Celik's
request to try to broker another meeting for Celik with
Interior Minister Abdulkadir Aksu.


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Background
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5. (S) Turkish press reports Aug. 1 that some 451 members of
a variety of terrorist organizations have applied for
"re-integration" under the law, even though it has yet to be
approved by President Sezer (and might in fact be vetoed).
The press also predicts that the figure may eventually reach
3,000; so far, there are no precise indications as to how
many of these applicants are or were once affiliated with the
PKK/KADEK. In this context, it is worth noting, as the
Interior Ministry SecGen told us recently, that one feature
of the law is specifically designed to appeal to people still
in Turkey -- not, that is, hard-core PKK/KADEK elements in
Iraq -- who for various reasons may have provided food or
other support to PKK/KADEK and are now worried about their
situation. The legal provision allowing such people to turn
themselves in without punishment is intended to last for only
six months after publication of the law.


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Comment
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6. (S) There is clearly more going on here than a simple
DEHAP publicity stunt. According to the independent Kurdish
source, Celik is trying to move DEHAP away from knee-jerk
response to PKK/KADEK equities; Celik's own comments to us
suggest as much. The view of the AK official is particularly
noteworthy, given his connections and track record. In 1996
he visited northern Iraq as part of an unofficial delegation,
backed by then P.M. Erbakan, to make contact with PKK
representatives. While AK would probably approve of anything
that would help bring the PKK down from the mountains, the
party brass will almost certainly ensure that their
fingerprints are nowhere near the DEHAP delegation -- should
DEHAP go though with its plan.
DEUTSCH