DAS PASCOE'S MAY 21-22 POST-WAR TOUR D'HORIZON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 003506

SIPDIS


STATE FOR EUR/SE, NEA/NGA, PMAT


E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/29/2013
TAGS: PREL PTER MARR AR TU IZ IS
SUBJECT: DAS PASCOE'S MAY 21-22 POST-WAR TOUR D'HORIZON
WITH GOT OFFICIALS

REF: A) ANKARA 3412 B) ANKARA 3318 C) ANKARA 3409


(U) Classified by Deputy Chief of Mission Robert Deutsch.
Reasons: 1.5 (B and D).


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SUMMARY
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1. (C) State Department DAS for European Affairs Lynn Pascoe
told GOT officials May 21-22 the USG was disappointed with
Turkey over its handling of issues of major importance to the
US, including Iraq and Cyprus. DAS Pascoe said the door to
rebuilding relations was open, but it was up to Turkey to
walk through. Only concrete actions would help rebuild the
relationship. After arguing that &disappointment8 was a
two-way street, GOT officials went out of their way to try to
convince Pascoe that Turkey was interested in rebuilding
relations. However, they offered little in the way of
concrete steps the GOT was willing to take at this time. GOT
officials said Turkey wanted to improve relations with
Armenia but argued that Yerevan had to take the lead before
Ankara would reciprocate. Turkey was committed to enacting
EU-related reforms, but GOT officials expressed doubts about
the EU,s intentions. The MFA pressed for resumption of
formal bilateral discussions on the economic relationship and
noted the negative impact of the operation in Iraq on the
Turkish economy was less than forecast. Turks are
discouraged by the recent inconclusive debates in Brussels
regarding NATO,s role in Iraq, but not yet alarmed at the
EU,s discussions on future European defense structures. GOT
officials were disappointed that Turkey was included as a
Tier III country in the Trafficking in Persons (TIP) report
and argued that Turkey should be removed from the list. DAS
Pascoe,s discussions on Cyprus (ref a) and his meeting with
MFA U/S Ziyal (septel) are reported separately. End summary.


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VIEW FROM WASHINGTON
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2. (C) During his May 21-22 meetings in Ankara, EUR DAS
Pascoe reminded GOT officials that Washington remained
disappointed with Turkey over its handling of issues of major
importance to the US. The expectations in Washington
following the November 2002 elections had been high. The USG
"went all out" to address Ankara,s concerns in Iraq and to
support Turkey on EU accession. There was a clear assumption
in Washington, based on our relationship and the signals we
were getting from GOT officials in the months leading up to
the March 1 vote on Iraq, that Turkey would be there for us.
DAS Pascoe noted the failure to reach an agreement on Cyprus
was another huge shock and disappointment, almost on the same
scale as Iraq. The USG had worked hard with all of the
parties to make sure Turkish concerns were addressed in the
Annan plan. At some point, the parties need to look beyond
the interests of one or two individuals and do what is right
for the Cypriot people and the interests of the region. DAS
Pascoe added that the US had demonstrated its intention to
maintain the bilateral relationship via Secretary Powell's
visit, the President's decision to include $1 billion in
assistance for Turkey in the supplemental, and in the call
between President Bush and Prime Minister Erdogan. Pascoe
said the door to rebuilding relations was open, but it was up
to Turkey to take the necessary steps. Only concrete
actions, including on Cyprus, Iraq, the Middle East, opening
the Armenian border, and economic reform, would help.


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GOT REACTION
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3. (C) Minister of Finance Unakitan summed up the views
expressed by GOT officials: the GOT had been disappointed by
the outcome of the March 1 Parliamentary vote, and the key
figures (including PM Erdogan and FM Gul) shared a strong
desire to strengthen the bilateral relationship. Unakitan
said he had recently discussed with FM Gul steps Turkey could
take to improve the relationship and had shared those ideas
with the Ambassador (ref b). Presidential Foreign Policy
Advisor Atacanli also expressed disappointment. He said it
was important for Washington to look at matters from the
Turkish perspective and asked for more &empathy8 in the
future. Ankara had witnessed &colder winds from that side
of the Atlantic8 following the March 1 vote. He expressed
hope that this and other visits would "warm the climate,"
saying "I hope Turkey and the US can put the whole thing
behind us and look to the future.8 MFA DG for the Americas
Banguoglu said the US appeared &ungrateful8 for the support
Turkey had provided in the operation against Iraq. He said
that the USG approach of "anything less than 100 percent
compliance is not enough8 was wrong. &If one were to
examine Turkey,s support for US policy against Iraq since
the first Gulf War, you would conclude that Turkey ranks very
high, possibly higher than the UK.8


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RELATIONS WITH ARMENIA
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4. (C) GOT officials were largely defensive about improving
relations between Turkey and Armenia: the GOT had been
forthcoming with Yerevan and was prepared to reciprocate, but
the ball was in Yerevan's court. Atacanli said the GOA
needed to change its frame of mind and begin to look at
Turkey in a &more cool-headed manner8 if it wanted to
improve relations. MFA DG for the Caucasus Akinci noted that
Turkey and Armenia were carrying on very discreet DDG-level
talks -- with the next round scheduled for Istanbul at the
end of May -- to get bilateral relations moving. Akinci
argued that Yerevan needed to make a distinction between
"state-to-state" and "nation-to-nation" relations. The
latter, mired in historical debates about the fate of
Armenians at the end of the Ottoman era and exacerbated by
the Armenian Diaspora, inhibit progress on the bilateral
front. As a prerequisite for improved Turkey-Armenia ties,
Yerevan must recognize the current Turkey-Armenia border and
give up claims to Turkish territory. He added that there was
also the issue of Ankara's support for Baku over
Nagorno-Karabakh.


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EUROPEAN UNION
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5. (C) MFA DDG for European Affairs Yenel said that GOT-EU
relations had improved since the December 2002 Copenhagen
Summit. The Greeks have been &extremely supportive8 of
Turkey during their presidency. Yenel said the GOT is
committed to EU-related reform. The current one-party
government is in a better position to pass reform legislation
than the previous government. That said, he acknowledged
that some of the reform legislation adopted by Parliament had
not been implemented, arguing that some elements of the
Turkish bureaucracy &do not believe in the EU8 and are
resisting reforms. Yenel insisted the GOT has &caught a
good wind8 and will make the reforms necessary to meet EU
membership criteria. He said the only obstacle he fears is
Cyprus: &What will happen if the GOT makes all the
necessary reforms and doesn't solve Cyprus?8 All the other
candidates were required only to meet membership criteria, he
averred. If Turkey is kept out of the EU because of Cyprus,
there will be a strong public reaction against the EU.
Presidential Advisor Atacanli said the GOT was prepared to do
its part to gain admission to the EU, but it would need &an
extra nudge8 from the US to secure support from the EU.


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ECONOMY
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6. (C) Finance Minister Unakitan said severe pre-war anxiety
had given way to cautious post-war optimism, as oil prices
fell, tourism began to pick up, interest rates declined and
expectations improved. He said the announcement of the $1B
U.S. assistance package to Turkey had provided a large
psychological boost as well. Unakitan said the GOT was
working with the IMF to implement the reform program, and PM
Erdogan,s views on this do not diverge from those of the
Fund. Unakitan said he is sticking to tight fiscal policy,
which means having to say "no" to many requests from other
ministers. In a separate meeting, MFA DG for Bilateral
Economic Affairs Ozuye said there were signs that Turkey's
economy was improving. After arguing (unsuccessfully) that
that the US textile quota was hurting Turkey, Ozuye asked
that the US and Turkey resume the three bilateral meetings
(the Economic Policy Commission, the Joint Economic
Commission and TIFA) to provide a forum to discuss issues of
mutual concern.


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NATO
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7. (C) MFA DDG for NATO Affairs Kizildeli said Turkey was
currently confused and discouraged by the recent debates at
NATO. The GOT found Germany's dwelling on the question of a
NATO footprint in Iraq during debates on assistance to Poland
particularly discouraging. Since Prague, the Turks have seen
little progress on capabilities. She lamented that France
would not allow discussion of the use of the NATO Response
Force in the DPC; if it could only be discussed in the NAC,
it was virtually "unusable." While it was somewhat
encouraging that NATO had gradually been allowed to
participate in ISAF in Afghanistan, Kizildeli said "France
allowing NATO to take part after everyone else had lost
interest was no way to keep NATO responsive and viable."
Kizildeli argued that Turkey was not looking at NATO as a
"back door" to participating in the stabilization force in
Iraq. Iraq was very important to Turkey, and the GOT did not
want its stability left in the hands of "Honduras and the
Philippines" when everyone else lost interest. Kizildeli
said Turkey was watching European defense structures develop
with great interest but was not yet alarmed. The Europeans
don't yet have a "strategic vision," so Turkey is not yet
worried. As an EU aspirant, Turkey was participating in
discussions on ESDP to the extent allowed and hoped to one
day fully benefit from European strategic cooperation.


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TRAFFICKING REPORT
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8. (C) Americas DG Banguoglu said that the GOT was
disappointed that Turkey was included as a Tier III country
in the Trafficking in Persons (TIP) report. Using many of
the same points the Minister of Interior used with the
Ambassador later that same day (ref c),Banguoglu argued that
Turkey should be removed from the list altogether.



9. (U) DAS Pascoe has cleared this message.
PEARSON