TURKEY'S NEW GOVERNMENT: MORE ON ERDOGAN'S TIMING

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001579

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON EFIN PINS TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY'S NEW GOVERNMENT: MORE ON ERDOGAN'S TIMING

REF: ANKARA 1546


(U) Classified by Polcouns John Kunstadter; reasons: 1.5
(b,d).



1. (C) Summary: AK leader Erdogan likely to submit his
candidate cabinet list March 13. Possible he will emerge as
Prime Minister in office as of that date. Still no
convincing sign, however, that he intends to pass a
parliamentary resolution approving U.S. troop deployment in
the next five-six days. End summary.



2. (C) Three contacts from ruling AK Party and a journalist
with close ties to AK's leadership tell us party chairman
Tayyip Erdogan is likely to submit his candidate cabinet list
to President Sezer Thursday, March 13. Another AK contact
sees the list not being submitted until March 17. Erdogan
becomes P.M. in office as soon as Sezer approves a list and
sends it to parliament, so it is possible Erdogan will assume
the post by March 13.



3. (C) AK Party parliamentary group deputy chairman Fatsa,
party deputy chairman for foreign policy Disli, outspoken
human rights and anti-corruption advocate and AK M.P. Yarbay,
and journalist Cengiz Candar told us separately March 12 they
think Erdogan will submit his list March 13. Fatsa, Yarbay,
and Candar opined that the shuffle of current cabinet members
may be limited to half a dozen; Candar foresees Erdogan's
cabinet as substantially more action-oriented than the
cabinet of outgoing P.M. Abdullah Gul.



4. (C) In addition, while acknowledging that much is indexed
to the results of UNSC deliberations March 13, Candar said he
expects Erdogan to submit a new draft resolution approving
deployment of U.S. troops early the week of March 17. For
their part, Yarbay and Fatsa reiterated the need for the U.S.
to give Erdogan an incentive to submit the draft resolution;
both mentioned, among other things, "guarantees" on Turkey's
post-Saddam role, on the status of the Turkmen, and on the
U.S. commitment against an independent Kurdish state.



5. (C) AK M.P. Turan Comez, who had served as Erdogan's
private secretary until last autumn's general election
campaign, told us March 12 he expects the cabinet list to
emerge March 17. Comez expects a substantial shuffle,
involving a dozen posts; he affirmed that his name is under
consideration for the Health Ministry. With better contacts
among the mass of AK M.P.s than most others, Comez has been
an accurate predictor of trends in AK, but in this case his
is the outrider view.



6. (C) Comment: Deputy chairman Disli and Erdogan's secretary
confirmed to us March 12 that Erdogan was continuing to work
on his cabinet list late into the evening, which we interpret
as evidence he is aiming to present his list March 13. We
continue to tell interlocutors that time is running out for
the GOT to pass a deployment resolution.
PEARSON