NORTHERN IRAQ: KDP AND PUK TO UNIFY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001391

SIPDIS


NOFORN


DEPT. FOR P, EUR, EUR/SE, NEA AND NEA/NGA;
NSC FOR AMB. KHALILZAD;
OSD FOR LUTI


E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2013
TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS PREF PHUM TU IZ UNSC
SUBJECT: NORTHERN IRAQ: KDP AND PUK TO UNIFY
ADMINISTRATIONS AND PESHMERGA, TURKMEN PARTICIPATE IN
IRBIL PROTEST, PUK COMPLAINS OF ITF INCITEMENT

REF: A. ANKARA 1374

B. ANKARA 1360


Classified by DCM Robert Deutsch. Reasons 1.5 b and d.


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Summary
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1. (S/NF) Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) Ankara rep
Bahros Galali called on Operation Northern Watch POLAD March
3 to inform that after the Iraqi opposition conference in
Salahadeen, PUK leader Jalal Talabani and Kurdistan
Democratic Party (KDP) leader Masoud Barzani met and agreed
to unify the KDP and PUK administrations and peshmerga
forces. They have not announced this to the media and fear
that Turkey could take news of this move as a pretext for an
attack by claiming this was a move toward statehood. If
asked, the KDP and PUK plan to say this is in fulfilment of
the Washington Agreement. Galali said that if the KDP
decided to fight the Turks, the PUK would be stuck fighting
alongside the KDP. Galali told us that at least six Iraqi
Turkmen parties (including non-KDP affiliates) participated
in the Ref B demonstration in Irbil, holding banners in
Turkish and chanting in Turkish "We oppose Turkish military
intervention." Galali heard ITF reps on Turkish TV March 3
stating the ITF had left the Iraqi opposition and claiming
Amb. Khalilzad had promised the ITF leaders that if the ITF
were not included in the opposition leadership council within
ten days, the US would reject the opposition leadership
council. The PUK also alleges that KDP "PM" Nechirvan
Barzani informed Saddam of US plans and sought Baghdad's help
against the Turks should Turkey intervene. End Summary.


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KDP and PUK to Unify Admins, Peshmerga
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2. (S/NF) PUK Ankara rep Galali asked to see ONW POLAD March

3. Galali said that after last week's opposition meeting in
Salahadeen, northern Iraq, Barzani and Talabani along with
several of their respective politburo members (NFI) had met
and agreed to unify their administrations and peshmerga
forces as quickly as possible. The KDP and PUK are working
on the mechanics of the unification, but have made no
announcements about it. While they saw this as critical to
strengthening the Kurdish position in the end game before
regime change, they also realized that the Turks could claim
this was a step toward Kurdish statehood and use it as a
pretext to intervene. The KDP and PUK have not informed the
Turks or the media of the decision. If they are asked about
it, they plan to say that it is in fulfilment of the
Washington Agreement's provisions for reconciliation.


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Turkmen Demonstrate AGAINST Turkish Intervention
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3. (S) Galali expressed concern regarding the burning of
Turkish flags at Ref B anti-Turkey demonstration in Irbil
March 3. He told us he had given a statement to Turkish TV
that had been carried several times already in which he said
that like Turkey, the KDP and the PUK allowed people to
demonstrate, including against the leaders, but that the PUK
did not support the burning of any flags. Galali said that
the demonstration had been organized by students and
intellectuals and that KDP and PUK supporters took part,
although no leadership figures from either side did. He told
us Talabani had urged Barzani to avoid provocations to
Turkey, but that the burning of one Turkish flag and the
shredding of another had provoked the Turks. In an
interesting twist, Galali reported that Turkmen from six
political parties, including Turkmen not affiliated with the
KDP, participated in the demonstration, chanting in Turkish
and carrying banners in Turkish that read "We oppose Turkish
military intervention," and "We don't need Turkey in our
country."


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Northern Iraqis Incited by GOT Remarks
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4. (S/NF) Galali continued, saying that the demonstration
indicated that the people of northern Iraq were now "really
afraid" of a Turkish intervention. "If they want to stop
refugees, why do they not stay on their border, or within a
few km of it? But the Foreign Minister (Yakis) tells the
press repeatedly they will send 80,000 soldiers and take away
the guns from the Kurds. Erdogan told CNN Turk that if the
US sends 40,000 troops, Turkey will send 80,000, and if the
US sends 80,000, Turkey will send 160,000. This is a big
mistake, and is making Barzani intransigent and emotional."
Galali said the northern Iraqis were now sure that Turkey
wanted to send its army to Irbil and Chamchamal, disarm the
peshmerga and prevent displaced Kurds from returning home.
He added that no Iraqi Kurd would relinquish his gun to a
Turkish soldier and that a Turkish intervention was a recipe
for chaos. How, he asked, could Turkey be unwilling to allow
Kurds who had been evicted from their homes in Kirkuk or
Mosul to return, even if they went unarmed? "Iraq," he said,
exasperated, "is not Turkey and is not a Turkish country."


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ITF Claims All Northern Iraq is Turkmen Land
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5. (S/NF) Galali was upset about interviews with ITF reps
that have aired in the past few days on Turkish television.
In one, the ITF claimed that the Iraqi Kurds were
distributing fake ID's to Kurds showing them to be displaced
from Kirkuk so that the Kurds could take over that city.
Galali said that Hasan Osman, Kemal Baytli, Sa'adun Koproglu
and Sanan Aga (via telephone from Irbil) had given interviews
to NTV (Turkish TV news) March 3, in which they said nothing
about Saddam Hussein, but did claim that Irbil is a Turkish
city that Barzani had taken from the Turkmen; showed what
Galali described as a "shocking" map identifying everything
in northern Iraq from Diyala to Zahko as Turkmen territory;
and claimed there were at least 3.5 million Turkmen in Iraq.
Galali contested those numbers strongly and posited that the
Turks were trying to use the ITF to provoke the Kurds and
create a pretext for Turkish intervention.


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ITF: US Promised To Reject Opposition Leadership
Unless ITF Gets Spot in Leadership Council
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6. (S/NF) Galali told us that the ITF reps claimed in the NTV
interview that the ITF had dropped out of the Iraqi
opposition following the Salahadeen conferece, but that Amb.
Khalilzad had promised ITF leaders that if the ITF was not
included in the opposition's leadership council within ten
days, the US would reject the leadership council. Galali
said that when Hasan Osman was asked if the ITF supported the
US plan for Iraq, Osman said flatly, "No. We do not."
Galali shared with us a conversation PUK peshmerga hero and
former "PM" Khosrat Rasul Ali had with ITF Chairman Sanan Aga
on the margins of the Salahadeen conference. According to
Galali, Khosrat asked Aga why he had changed so much from
being a friend of the Kurds to being so strongly opposed to
them. Aga replied "What I have said isn't half of what
Ankara told me to say." In Galali's view, the Turks have
chosen the wrong surrogates in northern Iraq. There are
Turkmen there that everyone can work with, he told us, but
Sanan Aga was with Saddam until four years ago and is not
anti-Saddam today.



7. (S/NF) Galali described the situation in northern Iraq as
"very bad" for the KDP and the PUK. Talabani, he said, wants
to work with the Turks so that the US plan will succeed, but
Barzani is defiant and playing the role of defender of the
Kurds against the Turks. "If Barzani decides to fight the
Turks, we will be stuck alongside him."
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PUK Says Nechirvan Went to Saddam w/US Plans
Seeking Help vs. Turkey
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8. (S/NF) Finally, Galali said the PUK had information that
after Amb. Khalilzad's early Feb. visit to Ankara, Nechirvan
Barzani had contacted Saddam, briefed him on US plans as
presented by Khalilzad, and asked for Saddam's support
against Turkey should Turkey intervene in northern Iraq.
Galali said that Barzani knew that the KDP could not hope to
fend off the Turks by themselves and did not believe the US
would do so for them. Comment: We have no way of knowing if
Barzani actually contacted Baghdad or, if so, what was said.
We note that Galali views Nechirvan with contempt and that
the PUK keeps Barzani's 1996 decision to seek Saddam's
assistance squarely in mind. However, the scenario is
plausible. End comment.
PEARSON