TURKEY: PARLIAMENTARY VOTE POST-MORTEM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001346

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR (D) ARMITAGE, (P) GROSSMAN, (EUR) JONES
NSC FOR HADLEY, FRIED
OVP FOR EDELMAN
OSD FOR WOLFOWITZ, FEITH
JCS FOR CJCS MYERS, VJCS PACE, J-5 CASEY
TREASURY FOR U/S TAYLOR


E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/01/2013
TAGS: MARR MOPS PREL TU IZ
SUBJECT: TURKEY: PARLIAMENTARY VOTE POST-MORTEM

(U) Classified by Ambassador W. Robert Pearson. Reasons: 1.5
(b) and (d).



1. (C) Summary: MFA U/S told the Ambassador March 1 the
Turkish system was in shock following defeat of the
Parliamentary resolution for U.S. and Turkish Troop
Deployments. The PM and Government worked hard to convince
parliamentarians, but felt their efforts were not fully
understood. Turkey remains committed to the strategic
partnership with the U.S. and is ready to work on a broad
range of issues. How the Government will pull itself
together and how it will proceed on the Iraq issue remains an
open question at this point. Ziyal asked for supportive U.S.
statements to help control potential market fallout and a
provocative Kurdish reaction. End Summary.



2. (C) Following failure of the Parliamentary vote on troop
deployments March 1, MFA Undersecretary Ugur Ziyal provided
the Ambassador with an evaluation of the situation. Working
from a prepared text, Ziyal noted that the result left the
Government, the AK party and the bureaucracy in shock. The
Parliament had engaged in a long and heated debate. The
Government did everything possible to persuade Parliament to
vote in favor. While the Government obtained a simple
majority in favor, it did not meet the constitutional
requirement for a majority of the sitting members, failing by
3 votes (264 yes votes, with 267 of the 533 voting required
to pass). The Government told the Parliament that all of the
MOU,s (Military, Economic and Political) were in place, even
though we were still just short of full agreement.



3. (C) Ziyal said that the Government had informed the U.S.
of the difficulties facing it in obtaining Parliamentary
approval all along the way. Washington had not understood
the difficulty. While the Prime Minister needed time to
prepare the ground, the delays were seen as procrastination.
Although officials understood the U.S. need for an early
response to its requests, the public viewed the U.S. approach
as putting Turkey under pressure. Turkey tried to prepare
agreements in political, military and economic areas to
persuade Parliament of the benefit of cooperation, but the
process as seen as bargaining. Turkey asked the right spin
be given to the U.S. press, instead Turkey,s difficulties
were met by mockery. Last but not least Turkomen were left
off the presidium committee formed by the Iraqi opposition
conference almost on the day of the Parliamentary discussion.
This issue was directly raised during the Parliament debate.



4. (C) Ziyal noted that the Prime Minister and the
Government had risked their political future to stand by
American Friendship. The AK party would meet Sunday morning,
he said, to evaluate the result and determine how the
Government would proceed. Despite the failure of the
resolution, Turkey,s commitment to the strategic partnership
continued, and he hoped the U.S. would recognize and value
the effort as well as the continuing value of our strategic
partnership. Our relationship, Ziyal added is not about just
one issue, but about the many that we pursue together.
Turkey is ready to work on with the U.S. on all issues.



5. (C) Ziyal noted that in the immediate aftermath of the
vote, he had two major concerns. First was the reaction of
the financial markets on Monday, and second was the reaction
of the Iraqi Kurds. He said the calm reaction from the
Embassy in the immediate aftermath of the vote was helpful
and that it is important for the U.S. more generally to
respond in a measured way to the developments in order to
limit the difficulties that could develop on those two
fronts.



6. (C) The Ambassador responded that the U.S. appreciated
the Government's effort to work for a favorable decision. He
noted that the relative majority of those who expressed an
opinion favored passage of the measure. He said the U.S.
would need some practical information as it evaluated next
steps. We would need to know as soon as possible whether the
Government would consider taking the issue back to
parliament, and in what form that might happen. Following
the leadership meeting the Ambassador said we hoped the
Government would be able to give us an idea of the options
and time frames it was considering as soon as possible.
Ziyal answered that it was impossible to make any predictions
at this juncture, but that as the GOT began to evaluate its
course, it was extremely important to know what the U.S. was
thinking as well. Ziyal agreed that it was important not to
take any actions that put the U.S. and Turkey immediately
into a particular bind, as we work forward.


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Comment
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7. (C) Having failed to achieve a positive vote on the
Parliamentary resolution, the AK party will have to
reconsider its situation beginning tomorrow. It will be
faced soon with what should be sobering reactions, from the
markets in particular, as Ziyal worries. One way forward
could be for resubmission soon of a new resolution, but
conceivably not until after Erdogan's expected victory in the
Parliamentary by-election next Sunday (March 9) which could
help the party begin pulling itself back together.
PEARSON