ON THE EVE OF THE IRAQ VOTE: WHICH WAY WILL TURKEY

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001207

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/24/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV TU IZ
SUBJECT: ON THE EVE OF THE IRAQ VOTE: WHICH WAY WILL TURKEY
GO?

(U) Classified by DCM RSDeutsch. Reasons: 1.5 (b)(d).



1. (C) P.M. Gul's cabinet formally submitted a combined draft
resolution -- covering deployment of U.S. troops through
Turkey and deployment of Turkish forces abroad -- to
Parliament Feb. 24. Given procedural requirements, the
earliest Parliament can begin debate will be 1500 local (0800
Washington time) on Tuesday, Feb. 25. Deputy P.M. Sener
announced publicly that the Government decided to send the
petition to Parliament even though "an important" number of
ministers "did not find it convincing," though in the end
they joined their colleagues and signed on. Gul is
discussing the matter with President Sezer, whose insistence
on international legitimacy via new UNSC authority remains
strong and public.



2. (C) In Feb. 24 conversations with us, AK leader Erdogan
and other senior contacts from across the political spectrum
-- members of parliament, journalists, think tanks, NGO and
labor groups -- in the main expressed the belief that the
ruling AK Party/Government will prevail on its skeptical
parliamentary group to support passage of the resolution.


-- Erdogan told the Ambassador they would "do all we can" to
secure parliamentary support, but cautioned that there will
have to be some unspecified compromises on the USG-GOT
political, economic, and military agreements currently being
negotiated.


-- Sukru Elekdag, retired ambassador and current member of
opposition CHP, confirmed that his party will vote as a bloc
against the AK resolution: "We see no urgency for war, and we
think the inspection regime should be strengthened and given
more time." Other CHP M.P.s -- including Foreign Affairs
Committee member Emin Koc, former minister Abdulkadir Ates,
pollster Bulent Tanla, and Kurdish tribal leader Esat Canan
-- echoed one another in declaring that CHP "will 100%
reject" the resolution, although Koc and Canan opined that
Erdogan has the votes to make it pass.


-- Former NSC staffer and current executive director of the
Advanced Strategy Center Faruk Demir avowed that the AK
Government petition will pass if Erdogan, as he expects,
backs it.


-- Wire service Anadolu Ajansi Parliament bureau chief Faruk
Albayrak explained to us Feb. 24 that because the voting will
take place in a closed session, the chance for passage is
"much better than 50%."


-- Parliamentary legal expert Levent Kocak averred that
"there will be some minor objections but the draft will pass."


-- Labor union leaders Feridun Tankut (Steelworkers Union
chairman) and Bulent Pirler (Employers Union secretary
general) claimed that the resolution will pass. However,
Salim Uslu (president of the Islamist-oriented HAK-Is Union)
said the result will depend on how much the AK government
works on its parliamentary group.


-- Speaker of parliament (and potential AK party rival to
both Gul and Erdogan) Bulent Arinc publicly declared that "it
would not be right" for the government to submit a draft
without establishing that a possible operation has
"international legitimacy" in line with the requirements of
article 92 of the Turkish constitution.


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Comment
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3. (C) We expect AK will use its parliamentary majority to
pass the resolution. However, in waiting until virtually the
last minute, and in failing to convince speaker Arinc, AK
leaders may not have prepared the ground in parliament
sufficiently, and there is a chance that the draft could
fail. Moreover, as Erdogan himself suggested, the draft
USG-GOT papers and MOUs loom large in the minds of the AK
leadership and in the legislature; all hinges on whether they
will be completed before the vote.
PEARSON