CARE IRAQ PROGRAM DIRECTOR: MAINTENANCE OF FOOD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 000990

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA AND PRM; PLEASE PASS TO USAID
SAN JOSE FOR USAID/OFDA GUY LAWSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2013
TAGS: PREL PREF EAID IZ JO
SUBJECT: CARE IRAQ PROGRAM DIRECTOR: MAINTENANCE OF FOOD
RATIONS AND ELECTRICAL INFRASTRUCTURE KEY; LARGE POPULATION
MOVEMENTS UNLIKELY

Classified By: DCM Greg Berry, per 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: According to CARE Iraq Country Director
Margaret Hassan (protect),the Iraqi population is "entirely
dependent" on the OFF food ration system and has no economic
resources to draw upon if the OFF pipeline is interrupted.
Hassan also cautioned that Iraq's water/sanitation system and
hence public health standards are entirely dependent on
electricity. Hassan advised that Iraq has a well-trained
population that is fully capable of running a sophisticated
infrastructure and humanitarian services network; NGOs
seeking to provide services inside Iraq should play a
supporting rather than supplanting role. Hassan expects that
very few Iraqis or TCNs would seek to leave Iraq in the event
of a crisis, as Iraqis would either stay at home or seek
refuge outside urban areas and most TCNs are well-integrated
in Iraqi society and no more likely to flee than any other
group. End summary.


2. (C) CARE Iraq Country Director Margaret Hassan, a dual
British-Iraqi national who has lived in Iraq for the last
twenty years (please protect source) briefed PRM and
USAID/OFDA officers and regional refcoord February 3 on
current humanitarian conditions inside Iraq. Hassan was in
Amman en route between meetings in New York and Beirut, and
was accompanied by CARE regional emergency coordinator Graham
Miller. With sixty employees, CARE is the largest
international NGO working in central/southern Iraq. The Iraq
program is run by CARE UK.

-------------- --------------
Iraqi Population Impoverished, Dependent on OFF Rations
-------------- --------------


3. (C) Hassan reported that, after 12 years of sanctions,
the population of Iraq is "entirely dependent" on the UN's
food ration system. Any military action that would disrupt
the food ration system would be a "complete disaster" as
Iraqi citizens have no economic resources to fall back on in
a crisis. To illustrate her point, Hassan recounted a recent
visit to the home of an Iraqi schoolteacher in Basra. The
teacher, who earns roughly seven U.S. dollars per month, had
sold all of his belongings in order to augment his income.
Hassan said the teacher had nothing -- not even a chair to
offer his guest -- in his home. When Hassan asked the
teacher how he and his family would cope if his food rations
were disrupted, he said the family would have no choice but
to go hungry. Hassan added that although the Iraqi
government was now distributing two and sometimes even three
months' of food rations in advance, the poorest Iraqis often
sell those rations in order to buy basic household
commodities.


4. (C) In addition, Hassan reported that the food ration
system has distorted Iraq's natural economy. Because the
government-run OFF system brings into Iraq certain imported
foods, local Iraqi merchants no longer are purchasing their
own stocks of rice and flour. Hassan therefore fears that if
the OFF pipeline is disrupted, even Iraqis with money would
not be able access certain types of food.

-------------- --------------
Sophisticated Infrastructure Dependent on Electricity
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Hassan emphasized that Iraq is an urban society,
entirely dependent on electricity for its wat/san and health
sectors. If Iraq's electrical system is disrupted, it will
not be able to maintain its extensive water purification
systems. CARE's programs in Iraq have focused largely on
improving public health by improving water quality; it works
in "all" of Iraq's water treatment plants and hospitals.
(NOTE: Refcoord passed humanitarian mapping instructions to
Hassan; we do not know whether CARE has submitted any
information on its Iraq programs or installations.)


6. (C) Hassan also emphasized that Iraq has a large,
well-organized and well-trained network of skilled
professionals who are able to run the country's existing
infrastructure in all sectors but especially in health and
water and sanitation. Any NGOs seeking to provide services
in post-conflict Iraq should be prepared to play a
supporting, rather than supplanting role in these areas.

--------------
Large Population Displacements Unlikely
--------------


7. (C) Hassan expects that few Iraqis would seek refuge
outside Iraq in the event of hostilities. Noting that the
Iraqi population has endured difficult conditions since the
1990-91 Gulf War, she predicted that most Iraqis will either
hunker down in their homes or seek refuge with friends or
families outside urban centers. Hassan also predicted that
many of the one million Iraqis already internally displaced
(some from the Iran-Iraq war, others from 1991) would remain
in their current locations in the event of hostilities. Most
of these "displaced" Iraqis, Hassan said, are now permanently
relocated and have no intention of returning to their
previous residences.


8. (C) Hassan also expects that very few Egyptians or
Palestinians resident in Iraq would try to leave Iraq in the
event of hostilities. Although there were three million
Egyptian laborers resident in Iraq before the 1990-91 crisis,
Hassan believes that there are now less than 100,000
Egyptians resident in Iraq. Of that population, most are
very integrated into Iraqi society and unlikely to flee.
Similarly, Hassan characterized the Palestinian population in
Iraq as "very well integrated" and no more likely to flee
Iraq than any other group. She cautioned, however, that
Palestinians resident in Iraq do not hold Iraqi citizenship
and would most likely show up at borders without any
documentation if they fled Iraq.
GNEHM