HR ACTIVIST PREDICTS FUTURE PROTESTS WILL BE

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 000974

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/09/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM JO
SUBJECT: HR ACTIVIST PREDICTS FUTURE PROTESTS WILL BE
PEACEFUL; "TRANSFER" ISSUE BIGGEST POTENTIAL FLASHPOINT

REF: A. AMMAN 745


B. AMMAN 6521 (2002)

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRS GREGORY L. BERRY. REASONS: 1.5 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. On February 9, PolOff met with long-time
human rights contact Fawzi Samhoury, who has close contact
with the IAF and professional associations. Samhoury expects
upcoming demonstrations planned by opposition leaders
protesting possible military action against Iraq to remain
peaceful. He commented that the Jan 31 "anti-war"
demonstration in Shmeisani (reftel A) was less "Pro-Saddam"
than it appeared. Among Jordanians likely to participate in
forthcoming demonstrations, Samhoury claims demonstrators are
most upset with the lack of parliamentary elections and the
slower-than-expected pace of democratic reforms. Samhoury
also noted a growing frustration towards Arab leaders for
failing to deal with the issue of Saddam. He believes
transfer of Palestinians from the West Bank (expected by some
in the wake of military action in Iraq) is the one
"flash-point" that could possibly ignite the street. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) Samhoury said Islamic Action Front/Muslim
Brotherhood leaders told him they will try to "motivate"
Jordanians to demonstrate as a possible war approaches.
According to Samhoury, in the last demonstration organizers
did not provide transportation for people living outside of
Amman for fear their busses would be stopped by security
services. The result was attendance of less than 3,000. In
forthcoming demonstrations, such as one planned for February
15, Samhoury said he expects the organizers to step up
efforts to increase crowd sizes. The organizers also will
likely attempt to plan demonstrations outside of Amman in the
near future as well. Samhoury said protest organizers are
cooperating well with the GOJ and are "committed" to keeping
the demonstrations peaceful. He believes this cooperation is
sustainable for at least the near-term.


3. (SBU) NOTE: On February 9, the IAF called on Jordanians
to participate in a one hour "black-out" on February 14 at
20:00 in an effort to "stop the war." The IAF's statement
was typically vitriolic, describing US and British troops
massing in the region as "wolves," but called on Jordanians
to take non-violent actions, such as turning off the lights
and televisions in their homes, lighting candles and praying
for God to "keep the predators away." END NOTE.


4. (C) Although the January 31 demonstration was billed as
"anti-war," Samhoury said the participants were privately (if
not vocally) most upset about the lack of a parliament and
democratic reform. In general, demonstrators expressed their
strong support for the opposition. Samhoury said many people
were also upset with regional Arab leaders for failing to
avert the current Iraq crisis (note: this view was also
reported to us by public affairs contacts).


5. (C) Samhoury is optimistic rallies will remain peaceful.
He believes Jordanians, although frustrated, will not take
to the streets in the event of an attack on Iraq. "Only if
the Israelis try to transfer Palestinians from the West Bank
into Jordan or kill large numbers of Palestinians could
things go out of control. Transfer is the worst thing in the
minds of people here, it will be worse for them than seeing
Iraqi civilians killed on TV." Samhoury commented that the
USG would do well to make a push, "whatever you are able,"
to spur Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts forward.


6. (C) NOTE AND COMMENT. Samhoury is still proceeding with
his court case to have the Jordan Society for Citizens'
Rights reinstated (reftel B). Notwithstanding the
dissolution of the JSCR, Samhoury is still in contact with
human rights activists and demonstration organizers. His
view tracks with what many here are telling us: While some
Jordanians may occasionally hoist a pro-Saddam placard in
order to express frustration with the US, they are most
concerned about the possibility of Israeli actions in the
West Bank following military action in Iraq.
BERRY